ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

@MichaelRLowry
Subtropical jet usually still kicking through the Gulf of Mexico this time of year, making tropical development difficult and/or messy. May formations prefer western Atlantic and Caribbean. Shear running slightly below average for this time of year.



 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/999030348934770691

[Steve]

AJC,

Great post but I was going off the 06Z and before outputs. Once the 12Z GFS came out, and even though it took the long way to get there, it ended up around Destin anyway. It basically just hooked the Big Bend and all of That area until it stalls/loops and goes in. In my mind, that scenario (or at least the end game) seemed a little more realistic than an out through the Everglades even though that’s probably a more realistic scenario for a May storm coming up from the GoH.

I don’t have a dog in the fight and felt like the Peninsula and Panhandle (and perhaps southern AL and GA) look to see the most out of this. I could be wrong if this is more of a later June track or if there is a stall/meander at or near the coast. But it looks like the moderate drought conditions they had been seeing some of in FL are going down the next week.

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2218&fh=93

New icon run

[Aric Dunn]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2018052218&fh=93

New icon run

interesting...

[toad strangler]

As an aside...here's the 8-day rainfall we've had in our CWA through 8 AM this morning, which includes the first cut off low event over the eastern GOMEX that commenced the weekend before last. Check out some of those totals over Martin County, the southernmost that we serve...

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KMLB 222042
PNSMLB
FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-230000-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
442 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

...May 13-22, 2018 Rainfall Totals...

...Select rainfall totals for the past week beginning at 8 AM EDT
May 13, 2018, and ending at 8AM EDT May 22, 2018...

A rainy start to the wet season and resulting daily afternoon
showers and thunderstorms have led to a surge of rainfall totals
over the past several days. Widespread values between 6 to 9 inches,
with isolated spots of 15 inches or greater have been observed
across east central Florida. The highest observed rainfall amounts
so far have been in Martin County and extreme southeastern St. Lucie
County where numerous reports in excess of a foot of rain since May
13th, with 4 to 6 inches falling this morning alone across
southeastern St. Lucie county and northeastern Martin county. This
wet pattern is likely to continue for the next several days, if not
longer.


Station Name            Rainfall    Station ID  Provider

...Brevard County...
Titusville 5.9 NNW     10.20"       FL-BV-74    CoCoRaHS
Mims 3.3 SW             9.72"       FL-BV-86    CoCoRaHS
Melbourne 4.6 NNW       9.60"       FL-BV-77    CoCoRaHS
Palm Shores 1.4 W       8.20"       FL-BV-2     CoCoRaHS
Palm Bay 3.2 S          7.85"       FL-BV-72    CoCoRaHS
Micco 1.3 NW            7.66"       FL-BV-28    CoCoRaHS
Satellite Beach 2.0 N   7.18"       FL-BV-92    CoCoRaHS
Melbourne WFO           6.83"       MLBF1       COOP
Cocoa 2.6 WNW           6.65"       FL-BV-23    CoCoRaHS

...Indian River County...
Sebastian 0.7 NE        8.62"       FL-IR-46    CoCoRaHS
Vero Beach 5.3 W        7.75"       FL-IR-36    CoCoRaHS
Sebastian 1.7 SSE       7.68"       FL-IR-22    CoCoRaHS
Vero Beach 3.4 W        7.21"       FL-IR-24    CoCoRaHS
Vero Beach 4.3 W        6.25"       FL-IR-40    CoCoRaHS
Vero Beach 2.5 S        6.06"       FL-IR-27    CoCoRaHS
Vero Beach Airport      5.39"       KVRB        ASOS

...Lake County...
Clermont                9.63"       CLRF1       COOP
Okahumpka               9.53"       KHPF1       FAWN
Astatula 1.0 E          8.08"       FL-LK-25    CoCoRaHS
Leesburg Airport        6.78"       KLEE        ASOS
Oakland 3.4 WSW         6.54"       FL-LK-27    CoCoRahs
Umatilla                6.51"       UMLF1       FAWN
Paisley                 6.50"       TS959       RAWS
Lisbon                  6.41"       LSBF1       COOP
Mt. Plymouth            6.18"       PLTF1       COOP
Groveland 1.7 E         5.11"       FL-LK-3     CoCoRaHS

...Martin County...
Palm City 3.1 NW        17.25"      FL-MT-21    CoCoRaHS
Palm City 1.4 NW        17.12"      FL-MT-31    CoCoRaHS
Jensen Beach 2.2 NW     16.41"      FL-MT-19    CoCoRaHS
Palm City 4.0 SW        15.21"      FL-MT-1     CoCoRaHS
Stuart 8.4 S            14.55"      FL-MT-35    CoCoRaHS
Port Salerno            14.47"      PTSF1       COOP
Stuart 6.9 SSW          14.13"      FL-MT-17    CoCoRaHS
Indiantown 0.4 SW       12.01"      FL-MT-26    CoCoRaHS
Stuart WTP              11.71"      STRF1       COOP
Jupiter 4.0 N           11.25"      FL-MT-33    CoCoRaHS
Stuart 6 W              10.37"      TPKF1       SFWMD

...Okeechobee County...
N Lake O - Taylor Creek 8.38"       TLCF1       SFWMD
Okee Field Station      8.08"       KEFF1       SFWMD
Okeechobee County Arpt  8.01"       KOBE        AWOS
Okeechobee              7.39"       OKSF1       FAWN
Taylor Creek Conserve   7.01"       WLNF1       SFWMD

...Orange County...
Apopka                  7.69"       POPF1       FAWN
Windermere              7.66"       ORWF1       COOP
Orlando 2.2 WNW         7.66"       FL-OR-40    CoCoRaHS
Ocoee 1.4 N             7.27"       FL-OR-34    CoCoRaHS
Bay Lake 4.1 WSW        6.78"       FL-OR-35    CoCoRaHS
Orlando 7.2 WNW         6.74"       FL-OR-33    CoCoRaHS
Orange 11.2 NE          6.03"       FL-OR-23    CoCoRaHS
Union Park 3.8 ESE      5.86"       FL-OR-31    CoCoRaHS
Winter Garden 2.8 SSE   5.84"       FL-OR-47    CoCoRaHS
Orlando Executive Arpt  5.51"       KORL        ASOS
Shingle Creek           4.92"       SCGF1       SFWMD

...Osceola County...
Maxcy Property North    7.43"       YEHF1       SFWMD
Kenansville             6.60"       KENF1       COOP
Lake Tohopekaliga       5.72"       SWOF1       SFWMD
Kenansville North       5.44"       KNVF1       FAWN
Yeehaw Junction         4.75"       KSAF1       SFWMD

...Saint Lucie County...
Port St. Lucie 4.0 NE   14.02"       FL-SL-19    CoCoRaHS
Port St. Lucie S-49     12.98"       PSFL1       SFWMD
10 Mile Creek           12.67"       TMWF1       SFWMD
Savannas Preserve       12.67"       SVWF1       SFWMD
Tradition 5.6 W         12.47"       FL-SL-17    CoCoRaHS
Port St. Lucie 2.4 N    11.72"       FL-SL-22    CoCoRaHS
Fort Pierce 2.8 SSE     11.61"       FL-SL-11    CoCoRaHS
Fort Pierce 8 W         10.91"       NCSF1       SFWMD
Nettles Island          10.08"       NETF1       COOP
St. Lucie West           8.59"       SLWF1       FAWN
Treasure Coast Arpt      7.47"       KFPR        ASOS

...Seminole County...
Chuluota 0.9 N          7.65"       FL-SM-8     CoCoRaHS
Altamonte Springs 1.4SE 7.01"       FL-SM-27    CoCoRaHS
Winter Springs 2.3 E    6.47"       FL-SL-30    CoCoRaHS
Sanford Airport         5.97"       KSFB        ASOS
Oviedo 4.0 W            5.35"       FL-SM-12    CoCoRaHS   
Sanford 1.9 WNW         4.53"       FL-SM-18    CoCoRaHS

...Volusia County...
Oak Hill 2.8 WSW        9.34"       FL-VL-38    CoCoRaHS
DeLand 5.7 NW           8.96"       FL-VL-9     CoCoRaHS
Pierson                 8.56"       EPRF1       FAWN
DeLand 4.5 NW           8.53"       FL-VL-3     CoCoRaHS
Port Orange 5.0 WSW     8.26"       FL-VL-88    CoCoRaHS
Ormond Beach 2.6 SE     8.04"       FL-VL-73    CoCoRaHS
Lake Woodruff           7.97"       LWQF1       RAWS
DeLand 2.0 W            7.39"       FL-VL-21    CoCoRaHS
DeLand 1.4 WSW          7.30"       FL-VL-36    CoCoRaHS
Daytona Beach Airport   7.28"       KDAB        ASOS
DeLeon Springs 1.6 ESE  7.20"       FL-VL-86    CoCoRaHS
New Smyrna Beach 3.9 W  7.02"       FL-VL-77    CoCoRaHS
DeBary 2.5 W            6.28"       FL-VL-17    CoCoRaHS


Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers
for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.


$$

I am CoCoRaHS station FL-SL-31 in Port Saint Lucie West and since May 13th I am at 13.16" as of 6:20 AM this morning

[slamdaddy]

@MichaelRLowry
Subtropical jet usually still kicking through the Gulf of Mexico this time of year, making tropical development difficult and/or messy. May formations prefer western Atlantic and Caribbean. Shear running slightly below average for this time of year.

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/999030348934770691

From what I found, the shear right now in the GOMEX is below the normal (if I am reading this graphic correctly).

[Aric Dunn]

GFS is quite a bit more defined with a main circ still east. but at least less random vorts all over the place.

[Aric Dunn]

and now it went to crud again.. lol

[SFLcane]

18z GFS a bit stronger through SFL...

[Aric Dunn]

18z GFS a bit stronger through SFL...

well if that is what you call that... it is pretty much not helpful except telling us it thinks 90l will be sheared lol

[SFLcane]

Sorry not buying any stacked tc in the GOM with 30-40 kts of shear this weekend alone with dry air. Looking at this for potential rainfall for SFL. Also on the gfs camp for now

[SFLcane]

As wxman57 said earlier numerous times look for any low to follow the convection which is well to the east. Think Florida is in for a deluge but we’ll see how this evolves

[Dylan]

18z GFS a bit stronger through SFL...

well if that is what you call that... it is pretty much not helpful except telling us it thinks 90l will be sheared lol

Fun fact: Not one single EPS ensemble member sends 90L into the Florida Peninsula. Not one.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I had ask further up on this page about the amount of rain fall and how heavy it might be on late Friday afternoon, here in S. FLA. I need to run across to the west coast then turn around and come right back.

[slamdaddy]

From what I found, the shear right now in the GOMEX is below the normal (if I am reading this graphic correctly).

It does not mean thats winds are favorable, just below the mean average.

[Aric Dunn]

As wxman57 said earlier numerous times look for any low to follow the convection which is well to the east. Think Florida is in for a deluge but we’ll see how this evolves

to an extent yes. also the shear turns more southerly depending on location so until the upper trough is in place we wont know where the axis will be. unfortunately, a TS into South Carolina is a little hard to swallow.. and yes the GFS has far to much convective feedback ... the GFS ensemble mean is western florida panhandle. operational GFS is silly.

[Bocadude85]

18z GFS a bit stronger through SFL...

well if that is what you call that... it is pretty much not helpful except telling us it thinks 90l will be sheared lol

Fun fact: Not one single EPS ensemble member sends 90L into the Florida Peninsula. Not one.

We have two pro Mets in the GFS camp and from my experience it’s hard to go against what they say, another 10-20 inches of rainfall will cause significant flooding in South and Central Florida.

[Aric Dunn]

well if that is what you call that... it is pretty much not helpful except telling us it thinks 90l will be sheared lol

Fun fact: Not one single EPS ensemble member sends 90L into the Florida Peninsula. Not one.

We have two pro Mets in the GFS camp and from my experience it’s hard to go against what they say, another 10-20 inches of rainfall will cause significant flooding in South and Central Florida.

Not one person is questioning the rainfall over florida... in either camp..

[Bocadude85]

Fun fact: Not one single EPS ensemble member sends 90L into the Florida Peninsula. Not one.

We have two pro Mets in the GFS camp and from my experience it’s hard to go against what they say, another 10-20 inches of rainfall will cause significant flooding in South and Central Florida.

Not one person is questioning the rainfall over florida... in either camp..

If that’s the case then who cares where a weather less LLC makes landfall? The rainfall is the story of this system.

[Aric Dunn]

We have two pro Mets in the GFS camp and from my experience it’s hard to go against what they say, another 10-20 inches of rainfall will cause significant flooding in South and Central Florida.

Not one person is questioning the rainfall over florida... in either camp..

If that’s the case then who cares where a weather less LLC makes landfall? The rainfall is the story of this system.

Science.....