WPAC: HECTOR - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

TXPZ21 KNES 020625
TCSENP

A. 10E (HECTOR)

B. 02/0600Z

C. 14.1N

D. 122.9W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...0.7 WHITE CURVED BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.5. THE MET
IS 3.5 AND THE PT IS 4.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...HOSLEY

[Yellow Evan]

Pending microwave this could be near or at hurricane intensity.

[Kingarabian]

Excuse me for my ignorance but where are people getting the SSD floater images?

Prohax.

Serious note:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

For future systems, replace 10E with 11E, 98E etc etc. Also the systems have to be west of 100W

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 10, 2018080206, , BEST, 0, 142N, 1228W, 55, 997, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 50, 40, 40, 1010, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HECTOR, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 018,
EP, 10, 2018080206, , BEST, 0, 142N, 1228W, 55, 997, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 20, 20, 1010, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HECTOR, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 018,

[Kingarabian]

Euro keeps this due west:

[Kingarabian]

00z GEFS shifting back towards Hawaii:

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HECTOR EP102018 08/02/18 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 62 65 67 69 73 74 74 74 76 77 77
V (KT) LAND 55 58 62 65 67 69 73 74 74 74 76 77 77
V (KT) LGEM 55 59 62 65 67 70 75 79 81 82 81 80 79
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 15 16 14 13 10 10 5 6 7 10 8 8 0
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -2 -5 -3 -3 -4 -4 0 0 1 5
SHEAR DIR 53 50 57 63 51 30 344 346 298 318 324 357 11
SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.0 27.2 27.0 26.9 27.2 27.0 27.4 26.8 27.1 26.9 27.6
POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 134 136 134 134 137 135 139 132 135 133 140
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.6
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8
700-500 MB RH 61 61 60 60 61 59 59 57 57 51 53 58 60
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 15 16 15 18 20 21 22 23 25 25
850 MB ENV VOR -4 -4 -4 2 13 10 30 27 50 41 38 31 25
200 MB DIV 49 46 38 43 31 24 39 7 22 3 8 -10 15
700-850 TADV -3 -3 -4 -4 -6 -8 -8 -3 -2 -4 -4 -1 3
LAND (KM) 1612 1688 1769 1859 1951 2114 2316 2228 2004 1776 1556 1328 1118
LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.6 14.5 14.2 13.9 13.6 13.5 13.7 14.0
LONG(DEG W) 122.8 124.0 125.1 126.2 127.4 129.7 132.2 134.6 136.9 139.3 141.6 143.9 146.0
STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 12 11 11 10
HEAT CONTENT 10 16 26 27 22 6 5 5 13 12 16 11 18

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.4

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 16.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 12. 14. 18. 19. 19. 19. 21. 22. 22.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.2 122.8

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/02/18 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.42 3.7
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.33 2.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.18 1.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.39 2.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 3.6
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.94 5.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 310.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.51 -2.6
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.67 0.6

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 13.8% 23.6% 23.6% 16.4% 11.2% 18.1% 16.5% 7.2%
Logistic: 3.0% 7.6% 3.9% 2.2% 2.1% 1.7% 1.9% 1.2%
Bayesian: 0.5% 2.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 5.7% 11.3% 9.3% 6.2% 4.5% 6.6% 6.2% 2.8%
DTOPS: 4.0% 17.0% 11.0% 9.0% 5.0% 3.0% 6.0% 6.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/02/18 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX

[Twisted-core]

https://imgur.com/rfWF9WT

ADT thinks about in the region 55 knots @ last look. Maybe a even little better now and more uniform cdo.

[Ntxw]

If the Euro is correct (again assuming low bias) and given its current strength, I would not be surprised if Hector collected 40-50+ units of ACE

[storminabox]

No real big deal. If it goes to Hawaii, it'll just be another weak weakening system like most of them are.

But it isn't anymore likely to approach Hawaii. It's now more likely to actually enter the West Pacific as a powerful typhoon than slam or even approach Hawaii. The ECMWF is depicting a strong ridge that would steer the storm to the west. Hector is in an area of minimal wind shear, and it would be in a favorable environment for at least 10-15 days more.

The last frame of the ECMWF shows an STR above Hector at 170W as it intensifies further. Inevitably, this would turn west, and it would be impossible for a recurvature to the north to take place. That means Hector would certainly end up being that big ACE, long-lived hurricane/typhoon that may even be in the record books for its longevity.

That would be so awesome if it happens. I love tracking long lived intense storms that don’t impact anybody. This has the potential to rack up a ton of ACE points.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018
200 AM PDT Thu Aug 02 2018

Hector's satellite presentation has quickly improved over the past
few hours. Recent microwave and scatterometer data indicate that
the low-level center is now well embedded within the expanding
convective canopy, and a tiny mid-level eye has formed. In fact, a
late-arriving WindSat pass from around 0230 UTC showed that Hector
had a mid-level structure that has been associated with rapidly
intensifying tropical cyclones, when present in low-shear
environments. The initial intensity has been raised to 60 kt based
on a timely ASCAT-B overpass around 0556 UTC. Although the maximum
winds measured by the ASCAT were only around 55 kt, at least some
undersampling seems likely given the small size of the inner-core of
the cyclone.

The northeasterly shear that has been affecting Hector does not
appear to be significantly affecting the inner-core of the cyclone
at this time. However, it is uncertain whether this is only a
short-term trend, or if the inner core will remain protected from
the higher shear going forward. While the GFS and ECMWF indicate
that the shear should decrease through today, the HWRF and HMON
models forecast that Hector will become strongly sheared by tomorrow
and temporarily weaken as a result. The small size of the tropical
cyclone further complicates the intensity forecast since small
cyclones can quickly intensify or weaken, especially in moderate
shear environments, and these short-term fluctuations are very
difficult to predict. As a course of least regret, the NHC forecast
does not show significant strengthening or weakening for the first
48 h of the forecast and instead shows steady strengthening,
similar to the DSHP and LGEM models, and is higher than the previous
advisory. For days 3-5, there is a better consensus among the
models that Hector will strengthen, and the official forecast is
still close to the multi-model consensus and the previous forecast.

The initial motion estimate is now 285/10 kt. There is more
confidence in the track forecast. A strong subtropical ridge
extending from the eastern Pacific into the central Pacific should
keep Hector on a general west heading through the entire forecast
period. The main source of uncertainty is still the speed of the
tropical cyclone at days 3-5. Since the main difference between the
models appears to be subtle differences in the strength of the
ridge, the NHC forecast is still based on the multi-model consensus
and little change has been made from the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 14.3N 123.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 14.5N 125.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 14.6N 127.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 14.5N 129.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 14.4N 132.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 14.0N 136.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 14.0N 141.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 14.5N 146.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[euro6208]

EURO brings this closer than ever to the WPAC.

[Ntxw]

Once NE shear abates his ceiling is going to be up there. I agree with some posts prior possibly cat 4 by the end of the weekend then long journey to follow.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

EURO brings this closer than ever to the WPAC.

yes, the ECMWF does bring this to the WPAC as a powerful typhoon assuming nothing unusual happens after TAU 240... The ridge is strong enough to bring this west for days

[euro6208]

What a difference tracking a storm in this part of the world hoping for a beautiful strong system because they are mostly fishes compared to the WPAC where they hit land/populated areas.

*It's a hurricane
*Might become a Major
*Woah, a cat 4?

FISH.

[storminabox]

Once NE shear abates his ceiling is going to be up there. I agree with some posts prior possibly cat 4 by the end of the weekend then long journey to follow.

Looks to be getting better organized. Probably already a hurricane.

[NotSparta]

Now a hurricane according to best track

EP, 10, 2018080212, , BEST, 0, 142N, 1240W, 70, 990, HU

[cycloneye]

SAB has it as Hurricane Hector

TXPZ21 KNES 021218
TCSENP

A. 10E (HECTOR)

B. 02/1200Z

C. 14.2N

D. 123.9W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY AN LLCC SURROUNDED BY 9/10
BANDING. DT=4.0 AFTER ADDING 0.5 FOR BANDING IN WHITE. MET AND PT
AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

[cycloneye]

RI going on fast.

[Kazmit]

Will strength have an affect on the path of Hector or will the ridge be strong enough to keep it heading west?