WPAC: JEBI - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1035329704235098112

[Twisted-core]

https://imgur.com/ItDU5H7

Striking pinwheel eye.



https://imgur.com/FNFNzGx



https://imgur.com/Ht5yERZ

[mrbagyo]

3 way tie now for WPACs Strongest (JMA).
105 knots ,915 mb

1. Jelawat
2. Maria
3. Jebi

[cjrciadt]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1035329704235098112

Compared to Megi? or I dont want to even say the same.

[Highteeld]

2x post, whoops

[mrbagyo]

ADT Ver. 9.0

Eye temp is now at +19.6 °C

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1035329704235098112

Compared to Megi? or I dont want to even say the same.

Probably not at the moment, since Megi '10 had significantly colder convection with a similar if not slightly warmer eye. Some of the recon data from Megi supported a system in the 170-175 kt range, so that is admittedly a very high target. The current 145 kt from JTWC looks pretty good at the moment, although I wouldn't be surprised if it were still just a little stronger than the current estimate. Definitely a solid category 5 any way you slice it though.

[euro6208]

Just imagine what recon would have found in this. Dvorak trails big time when it comes to stronger storms.

[NotoSans]

The NRL/FNMOC imagery is a bit colder than what other websites provide because they use the band 14 IR, not the band 13 IR that is chosen as the standard by JMA. Also, the NRL/FNMOC imagery is of 4km resolution while himawari-8 is of 2km.

The official reply from NRL is that the wavelength of the band 14 IR (11.2um) corresponds better to what is originally used in Dvorak 1984 (10.4um - 12.3um) than the band 13 IR (10.4um), and the Dvorak technique is designed for three-hourly satellite imagery with a resolution of 8km, hence the lower resolution used in the NRL/FNMOC imagery.

Yet, research conducted by JAXA shows that the band 13 IR is more consistent with MTSAT imagery than band 14. I’m not so sure about GOES-16 though (both satellites are designed by the same company), but IIRC a lower wavelength is used as the IR band as well.

Back to Jebi, I would say 145 - 150 knots is a reasonable intensity estimate now, a bit lower than what SATCON and AMSU indicate because such estimates are distorted by an RMW estimate that is likely too small.

[Cunxi Huang]

Knaff 2009 also suggests T7.0 with a corresponding intensity estimate of 149 kt.

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1035329704235098112

Compared to Megi? or I dont want to even say the same.

He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named

[Twisted-core]

Thinking looks a nice 160knots rounded off atm.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24


https://imgur.com/5LjOqlV

[1900hurricane]

Metop-B shows that the eyewall may be doubling up.

[mrbagyo]

Are those low level clouds or Mesovortices?

[mrbagyo]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 AUG 2018
Time : 011000 UTC
Lat : 18:02:59 N
Lon : 143:50:23 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 926.1mb/134.8kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8. 6.9 6.9
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km
Center Temp : +20.0C Cloud Region Temp : -74.9C
Scene Type : EYE

[Highteeld]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 AUG 2018
Time : 011000 UTC
Lat : 18:02:59 N
Lon : 143:50:23 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 926.1mb/134.8kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8. 6.9 6.9
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km
Center Temp : +20.0C Cloud Region Temp : -74.9C
Scene Type : EYE

Here's some Haiyan eye temp data to mull over when it was at its peak.

[1900hurricane]

Something tells me the CDO isn't going to abruptly get 10ºC colder though. : P

[Highteeld]

Something tells me the CDO isn't going to abruptly get 10ºC colder though. : P

I dunno man, looks like a pretty legit T 8.0 to me...

[euro6208]

Just needs a 7.5 photogenic beauty contest to go up to 155-160 knots. Guesstimate. Although it’s likely there.

[1900hurricane]

Something tells me the CDO isn't going to abruptly get 10ºC colder though. : P

I dunno man, looks like a pretty legit T 8.0 to me...

Heh, I was lucky I wasn't drinking something when I saw that image.