ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#181 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Sep 02, 2018 4:53 pm

18z GFS hours 48-72:

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#182 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Sep 02, 2018 5:00 pm

18z GFS hours 72-96:

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Seems to be following yesterdays 18z run.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#183 Postby toad strangler » Sun Sep 02, 2018 5:04 pm

Through 96 the 18z GFS is essentially in the same place with Florence as runs back to at least Thursday. Not much change.
Last edited by toad strangler on Sun Sep 02, 2018 5:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#184 Postby USTropics » Sun Sep 02, 2018 5:06 pm

The weakening trend continues on the GFS in the 4-6 day range (down to 994mb at 96 hours):

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#185 Postby RL3AO » Sun Sep 02, 2018 5:07 pm

GFS vs Euro on day 4

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#186 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Sep 02, 2018 5:07 pm

Between hours 96 and 114, movement looks more pronounced WNW:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/T5v8465.gif[img]
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#187 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Sep 02, 2018 5:10 pm

GFS hours 92-120:

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#188 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Sep 02, 2018 5:11 pm

This 18z GFS run is now the most SW one:

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#189 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Sun Sep 02, 2018 5:13 pm

Looks like a fish this run. There is a window to recurve around hour 132. Storm is weaker, but the ridge really deteriorated.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#190 Postby toad strangler » Sun Sep 02, 2018 5:14 pm

FLpanhandle91 wrote:Looks like a fish this run. There is a window to recurve around hour 136. Storm is weaker, but the ridge really deteriorated.


GFS has been melting the ridge pretty consistently here.... bias?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#191 Postby USTropics » Sun Sep 02, 2018 5:14 pm

12z UKMET run:

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#192 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Sun Sep 02, 2018 5:16 pm

toad strangler wrote:
FLpanhandle91 wrote:Looks like a fish this run. There is a window to recurve around hour 136. Storm is weaker, but the ridge really deteriorated.


GFS has been melting the ridge pretty consistently here.... bias?


Read somewhere on here that GFS tends to over do low pressures and not give high pressure enough. I've seen GFS have weak storms punch right through substantial ridging.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#193 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Sep 02, 2018 5:16 pm

18z GFS hours 120-144:

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#194 Postby RL3AO » Sun Sep 02, 2018 5:18 pm

Euro vs GFS day 7. Still can see the slower/stronger GFS vs the weaker/faster Euro.

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#195 Postby toad strangler » Sun Sep 02, 2018 5:18 pm

USTropics wrote:12z UKMET run:




Yikes .... you have a 500mb to go with that?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#196 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Sep 02, 2018 5:23 pm

18z GFS hours 144-168:

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#197 Postby USTropics » Sun Sep 02, 2018 5:24 pm

toad strangler wrote:
USTropics wrote:12z UKMET run:




Yikes .... you have a 500mb to go with that?


Image

You can find both of these images at these two links:
https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/UKHEMI_12z/ukloop.html
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#198 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Sun Sep 02, 2018 5:25 pm

It is really going to depend on intensity at the time of the interaction with the ridge here.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#199 Postby chaser1 » Sun Sep 02, 2018 5:28 pm

USTropics wrote:12z UKMET run:

Image


Holy jeeez!
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#200 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Sep 02, 2018 5:28 pm

Still WNW. through hour 180 on the 18z GFS.

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