CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

Just look at what the Canadian initialized this as

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 82400&fh=0

Initialized it as a sheared apart TS

[Kingarabian]

Still a 105-110kt system based on Dvorak.

[Alyono]

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 24.08.2018

HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 157.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.08.2018 0 17.5N 157.5W 970 70
1200UTC 24.08.2018 12 18.5N 157.5W 982 62
0000UTC 25.08.2018 24 19.5N 156.8W 997 51
1200UTC 25.08.2018 36 20.3N 156.8W 1004 40
0000UTC 26.08.2018 48 20.5N 159.6W 1008 32
1200UTC 26.08.2018 60 19.3N 161.5W 1008 28
0000UTC 27.08.2018 72 19.5N 163.1W 1008 27
1200UTC 27.08.2018 84 19.0N 165.5W 1008 24
0000UTC 28.08.2018 96 18.5N 166.7W 1008 25
1200UTC 28.08.2018 108 18.8N 168.5W 1008 25

[Bocadude85]

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 24.08.2018

HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 157.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.08.2018 0 17.5N 157.5W 970 70
1200UTC 24.08.2018 12 18.5N 157.5W 982 62
0000UTC 25.08.2018 24 19.5N 156.8W 997 51
1200UTC 25.08.2018 36 20.3N 156.8W 1004 40
0000UTC 26.08.2018 48 20.5N 159.6W 1008 32
1200UTC 26.08.2018 60 19.3N 161.5W 1008 28
0000UTC 27.08.2018 72 19.5N 163.1W 1008 27
1200UTC 27.08.2018 84 19.0N 165.5W 1008 24
0000UTC 28.08.2018 96 18.5N 166.7W 1008 25
1200UTC 28.08.2018 108 18.8N 168.5W 1008 25

That is very close to a landfall in Lanai

[Kingarabian]

No recon, all these microwave passes keep missing, and irratic model solutions. We have no clue what the system is doing.

[Bocadude85]

0z HMON is a degree west of the 18Z

[Alyono]

100 mile west shift at 24 hours from HMON

Thing immediately decouples in HMON

[Bocadude85]

0z HWRF is very similar to the 0z GFS in bringing Lane very close to Lanai in 24hrs.

[Alyono]

and HWRF slams a hurricane into Maui

[Kingarabian]

So we have GFS,UKMET, and HWRF showing a different track than the CPHC.

[Alyono]

looks like the northerly turn has occurred

[Bocadude85]

So we have GFS,UKMET, and HWRF showing a different track than the CPHC.

It’s either going to be a coup for the CPHC or the GFS models and the UKMET.

[Kingarabian]

So we have GFS,UKMET, and HWRF showing a different track than the CPHC.

It’s either going to be a coup for the CPHC or the GFS models and the UKMET.

The gripe with the Cphc forecast is not that they're showing a westerly track. Its keeping Lane as a deep vortex (hurricane) while turning west. If Lane is going to shift west it will be as a decoupled system, not a hurricane.

[Mauistorms]

Checking this thread every 5 minutes while we still have power. Winds are pretty gusty through the mature Norfolk pines that line our property. It is very loud! Power in and out. Will be so lost without power and info. Cell reception is junk here.
Stay safe hawaii ohana

[Kingarabian]

Checking this thread every 5 minutes while we still have power. Winds are pretty gusty through the mature Norfolk pines that line our property. It is very loud! Power in and out. Will be so lost without power and info. Cell reception is junk here.
Stay safe hawaii ohana

Keep us updated please.

[Stratosphere747]

No recon, all these microwave passes keep missing, and irratic model solutions. We have no clue what the system is doing.

Actually if you watch the short term motion and upper and mid level dynamics it makes it easier to track.

Model solutions at this point become an excuse.

[NotoSans]

Looks like it’s weakening gradually as per latest EIR frames. Doesn’t look like a major to me now.

[Alyono]

HWRF showing 50 inches for parts of Maui

[OahuWahine]

Checking this thread every 5 minutes while we still have power. Winds are pretty gusty through the mature Norfolk pines that line our property. It is very loud! Power in and out. Will be so lost without power and info. Cell reception is junk here.
Stay safe hawaii ohana

Keep us updated please.

Stay safe!

[Alyono]

FV3 is amiss because it initialized as a 992mb TS

Seems the initialization is what is determining hit or miss now