ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[tolakram]

This is what the GFS has been showing, multiple circulations until late Sunday / early Monday when it finally consolidates.

[tropicwatch]

Kind of surprised they are still going with the north at 13mph.

[slamdaddy]

kind of flip flops around itself

[JarrodB]

URNT15 KNHC 262359
AF308 0301A ALBERTO HDOB 16 20180526
234830 2317N 08452W 9254 00691 0019 +208 +083 000008 009 020 000 03
234900 2316N 08450W 9253 00691 0016 +214 +083 003007 008 021 000 03
234930 2315N 08449W 9253 00691 0015 +217 +083 004008 009 022 000 00
235000 2315N 08449W 9253 00691 0013 +224 +083 343007 009 021 000 00
235030 2313N 08446W 9253 00690 0011 +227 +084 280008 010 016 000 03
235100 2312N 08445W 9250 00692 0014 +217 +086 252016 017 018 000 00
235130 2311N 08443W 9257 00686 0016 +212 +086 239017 019 022 000 00
235200 2310N 08442W 9250 00693 0018 +210 +085 234020 020 026 000 00
235230 2309N 08441W 9256 00689 0019 +213 +084 228021 022 027 000 00
235300 2308N 08439W 9250 00697 0022 +206 +083 235023 024 026 000 00
235330 2307N 08438W 9253 00697 0026 +203 +082 228023 024 027 000 03
235400 2306N 08436W 9249 00700 0027 +201 +081 225025 025 025 000 03
235430 2306N 08435W 9248 00702 0028 +200 +080 219025 026 027 000 00
235500 2308N 08433W 9252 00698 0027 +203 +080 213025 026 026 000 00
235530 2309N 08432W 9254 00695 0026 +205 +079 212025 026 026 000 00
235600 2310N 08430W 9251 00698 0027 +205 +079 209026 026 026 000 00
235630 2311N 08429W 9253 00697 0028 +203 +079 207025 026 027 000 00
235700 2312N 08427W 9252 00697 0028 +199 +079 204025 026 028 000 00
235730 2313N 08426W 9248 00702 0028 +200 +079 202027 028 028 000 00
235800 2315N 08425W 9253 00699 0029 +199 +078 203027 028 026 000 00
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 84.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

Offical position.. compared to mine. not bad.
23.6N 83.8W

[hurricaneCW]

Hard to imagine this being a hurricane in 36-48 hours as some models suggest, let alone even a solid tropical storm. I guess we should start seeing some drastic changes happening overnight and tomorrow.

We've seen multiple storms over the past few years go from weak systems to strong ones over that time.

Granted they didn't occur in late May but if conditions are right then it could definitely happen.

[stormhunter7]

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 84.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

Offical position.. compared to mine. not bad.
23.6N 83.8W

Nice. I feel this is a new center, due to new convection... and the one from today is just to the east of this?

[tropicwatch]

Any thoughts on why the are sticking with north at 13?

[slamdaddy]

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 84.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

Offical position.. compared to mine. not bad.
23.6N 83.8W

That's about 60NM difference...not a lot...but extrapolate that over 300 mile travel distance...its a lot

[Javlin]

Any thoughts on why the are sticking with north at 13?

It's usually an average of of 6-9 hrs will see a change probably @10PM

[JarrodB]

I need to go eat dinner. Anyone else want to post the recon data?

[JarrodB]

URNT15 KNHC 270016
AF308 0301A ALBERTO HDOB 17 20180526
235830 2316N 08423W 9250 00701 0030 +199 +078 201027 027 026 000 03
235900 2317N 08422W 9252 00701 0030 +200 +078 201027 028 026 000 00
235930 2318N 08420W 9252 00701 0029 +201 +078 199028 029 025 000 00
000000 2320N 08419W 9247 00704 0029 +205 +078 200028 029 026 000 00
000030 2321N 08417W 9250 00703 0029 +205 +079 199026 027 029 000 00
000100 2322N 08416W 9247 00704 0032 +192 +079 189029 032 032 002 00
000130 2323N 08414W 9261 00693 0031 +198 +078 188027 029 027 000 00
000200 2324N 08413W 9242 00710 0033 +193 +077 181029 030 026 000 00
000230 2325N 08411W 9261 00693 0032 +195 +075 185030 032 025 000 00
000300 2326N 08410W 9249 00702 0031 +200 +074 188030 031 023 000 00
000330 2327N 08408W 9250 00702 0031 +203 +074 191029 031 021 000 00
000400 2328N 08407W 9250 00702 0032 +200 +075 191029 029 022 000 00
000430 2328N 08407W 9250 00702 0032 +199 +077 188028 028 021 000 00
000500 2329N 08403W 9252 00702 0032 +197 +078 188029 029 022 000 00
000530 2330N 08402W 9250 00703 0033 +195 +079 189028 029 022 000 00
000600 2331N 08400W 9253 00701 0034 +196 +080 192026 027 022 000 00
000630 2332N 08358W 9250 00705 0034 +196 +080 193024 025 023 000 00
000700 2333N 08357W 9248 00708 0036 +195 +080 190026 027 022 000 00
000730 2334N 08355W 9251 00705 0036 +193 +080 186025 026 023 000 00
000800 2335N 08354W 9256 00700 0036 +193 +079 184024 025 024 000 00
$$

[Countrygirl911]

Does anyone see this coming back west any

[JarrodB]

URNT15 KNHC 270019
AF308 0301A ALBERTO HDOB 18 20180527
000830 2335N 08352W 9250 00705 0035 +196 +078 187024 025 026 001 00
000900 2336N 08350W 9256 00700 0034 +200 +077 187023 023 025 000 00
000930 2336N 08349W 9250 00706 0035 +202 +077 187024 024 023 000 03
001000 2337N 08347W 9251 00706 0035 +202 +078 187025 025 022 000 03
001030 2338N 08345W 9253 00707 0039 +195 +079 179024 025 020 000 00
001100 2339N 08344W 9250 00710 0041 +194 +080 175026 027 022 000 00
001130 2340N 08343W 9251 00710 0041 +195 +080 179027 028 022 000 00
001200 2340N 08343W 9251 00710 0042 +196 +080 186028 030 023 000 03
001230 2342N 08340W 9248 00714 0043 +191 +080 184029 030 025 000 00
001300 2344N 08339W 9248 00713 0044 +189 +079 177029 030 027 000 00
001330 2345N 08337W 9248 00715 0044 +191 +078 162028 030 027 000 00
001400 2346N 08336W 9245 00716 0045 +185 +077 164026 027 031 004 00
001430 2348N 08335W 9254 00709 0045 +187 +076 167024 027 032 004 00
001500 2349N 08334W 9257 00705 0043 +195 +074 157027 030 029 000 00
001530 2349N 08334W 9257 00705 0043 +194 +074 159027 029 029 000 00
001600 2352N 08332W 9240 00722 0042 +202 +075 158029 030 029 000 00
001630 2354N 08331W 9258 00705 0046 +192 +075 153028 029 029 000 00
001700 2355N 08331W 9248 00716 0049 +186 +075 159026 028 030 001 03
001730 2357N 08329W 9248 00716 0050 +185 +073 155029 030 031 000 03
001800 2357N 08328W 9243 00721 0047 +195 +070 152029 030 030 000 03
$$
;

[stormhunter7]

"NO CTR DROP DUE TO ALTITUDE"

So they didn't drop a gps dropsonde... looks like they must of had a hard time finding center, thus had to drop down closer to surface.

[Nimbus]

"NO CTR DROP DUE TO ALTITUDE"

So they didn't drop a gps dropsonde... looks like they must of had a hard time finding center, thus had to drop down closer to surface.

So the surface center is relocated from shear even at 5000 ft?

[stormhunter7]

Well there was a dropsonde released. fell for 4 mins. lol

Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 23.34N 84.68W
- Time: 23:41:44Z
983mb 175° (from the S) 23 knots (26 mph)


Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 23.35N 84.68W
- Time: 23:44:02Z
1000mb 26.4°C (79.5°F) 24.0°C (75°F) 175° (from the S) 18 knots (21 mph)

[GCANE]

Cloud tops cooling quickly.
Lightning increasing.

[tropicwatch]

Vortex message:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 0:28Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308
Storm Number & Year: 01 in 2018
Storm Name: Alberto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 04

A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 23:45:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°20'N 84°47'W (23.3333N 84.7833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 154 statute miles (248 km) to the W (276°) from Havana, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 696m (2,283ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 33kts (38.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the WNW (292°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 330° at 20kts (From the NNW at 23.0mph)
G. Location of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the WNW (290°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 758m (2,487ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp: Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 925mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 25kts (~ 28.8mph) which was observed 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the SE (142°) from the flight level center at 23:53:50Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

NO CTR DROP DUE TO ALTITUDE
General Note About Vortex Messages:
- Reported winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (The National Hurricane Center's advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)

[cycloneye]

Good set of winds in the 40's at flight level and are not contaminated.

003300 2416N 08255W 9248 00724 0057 +193 +075 139041 041 030 000 00
003330 2418N 08255W 9249 00725 0057 +194 +076 135041 042 029 000 00
003400 2420N 08255W 9250 00724 0057 +192 +076 131042 043 030 000 00
003430 2421N 08254W 9249 00726 0058 +194 +076 133041 041 029 000 00
003500 2423N 08254W 9253 00722 0058 +197 +076 134041 042 029 000 00
003530 2425N 08254W 9252 00723 0058 +198 +077 132038 039 028 001 00
003600 2427N 08254W 9250 00725 0058 +197 +077 135038 039 030 000 00
003630 2428N 08254W 9252 00724 0059 +194 +078 132037 037 031 001 00
003700 2430N 08254W 9250 00726 0062 +186 +077 130037 038 030 001 00
003730 2432N 08254W 9252 00726 0064 +183 +075 126041 042 029 003 00
003800 2434N 08254W 9255 00722 0065 +181 +072 128045 045 030 002 00