ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Correct me if I am in error, but is Hugo still the strongest North Atlantic tropical cyclone to make U.S. landfall north of 30 degrees Latitude?

It measured 918 mb at one time on its approach to the SC coast in 1989. Remember it like yesterday tracking him.

Camille made landfall at 30.3N with 900 mb, but that was in the Gulf. Hugo is the strongest on the east coast (934 mb / 120 kt).

Thanks for confirming. So Florence indeed has this unprecedented moment potentially to make history for sure! Amazing.

[cheezyWXguy]

Florence is making some pretty solid progress of developing a ring of -69C to -75C cloud temps around its eye. Im not all that familiar with the dvorak technique, but isn't that closing in on 6.0?

[plasticup]

Florence is making some pretty solid progress of developing a ring of -69C to -75C cloud temps around its eye. Im not all that familiar with the dvorak technique, but isn't that closing in on 6.0?

No need for dvorak when we have a plane in there! Looks like they are preparing for another pass now.

[Ian2401]

Recon making another dive for the core

[FLpanhandle91]

Based on recon, tropical storm force winds seem to extend quite a bit north and east of the storm.

[NDG]

12Z GFS recurves just east of Hatteras. Yes, impressive hurricane. Intensity should fluctuate due to EWRC. Some major hurricanes have a bunch of them some only a few. Hope the GFS is correct....MGC

You spoke too soon before the GFS sends it back to N.C.

[FLpanhandle91]

This pass should be through the strongest portion of Florence's eye wall.

[FLeastcoast]

Individual models may be flopping around but notice what isn't...the NHC track. it's shown remarkable consistency since it began depicting landfall.

Why do you think that is?

[supercane4867]

I’m expecting winds around 125kts for N eyewall

[plasticup]

Individual models may be flopping around but notice what isn't...the NHC track. it's shown remarkable consistency since it began depicting landfall.

Not true. It was zeroed in on Bermuda for a while. This whole CONUS scenario was thought pretty unlikely just a few days ago.

[cheezyWXguy]

Florence is making some pretty solid progress of developing a ring of -69C to -75C cloud temps around its eye. Im not all that familiar with the dvorak technique, but isn't that closing in on 6.0?

No need for dvorak when we have a plane in there! Looks like they are preparing for another pass now.

More of a learning experience for me at utilizing dvorak since I've tended to let others do the heavy lifting on that in the past, as opposed to a legitimate attempt at gauging intensity.

[JBCycloneStan]

Starting to get that scary buzzsaw appearance...

[plasticup]

Here we goooooooooo!

[GTStorm]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir

seems like the movement is becoming more WNW / NW the last couple of hours

[plasticup]

Recon about to enter the eye again. North to South this time.

[cheezyWXguy]

Individual models may be flopping around but notice what isn't...the NHC track. it's shown remarkable consistency since it began depicting landfall.

Why do you think that is?

I think it's because, despite having such a tight consensus at this time, landfall is still 4 days away, and there are still some unresolved factors in play. Most importantly, is when do the steering currents break down. If its after landfall, we will see a straight shot in followed by a stall. However, if steering currents break down before landfall, a meandering path like the gfs's could take place. That said, intensity and structural changes could play a significant role in track as well, let alone severity of impact.

[psyclone]

Individual models may be flopping around but notice what isn't...the NHC track. it's shown remarkable consistency since it began depicting landfall.

Not true. It was zeroed in on Bermuda for a while. This whole CONUS scenario was thought pretty unlikely just a few days ago.

This is why I said "since it began depicting landfall". There's a reason i chose those words and the point is valid.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1039189476663283712

[EquusStorm]

Super well defined eye is obvious now as a black dot even on very low res, low quality full disk hemisphere visibles. Frightening buzzsaw appearance and has plenty of time left to get even more jaw dropping

[dspguy]

Savannah currently is just south of the extreme southern edge of the cone right now.

I know a lot of people jumped on you about it (me included!). Bunch of geography scholars here!

For me though, I was sipping my coffee and going to check the NHC forecast update at 11am and saw your post first. I nearly spit my coffee out on my keyboard. Savannah was my evac point if the storm tracks where it is currently going. I was like "well, there goes THAT backup plan!" I was thinking "No way it tracked that far south already!"

geography is critical at this stage of the game. do not mean to jump on anyone, just don't want people spitting out coffee..

I might have done another spit take at the latest GFS. WTH is going on? I ought to stop drinking coffee while reading up on this hurricane.