ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KWT]

By the way a center dropsonde confirmed the air forces estimated pressure is bang on the money, so 957mbs was the pressure from last pass.

[johngaltfla]

http://www.fox13news.com/news/local-news/hurricane-sends-high-tide-washing-into-bay-area-streets

Coffee Pot Bayou in St. Pete already has street flooding. It may get ugly there tomorrow. It's crazy!

Tidal flooding on Longboat Key also so as the surge increases I expect that to get worse.

[supercane4867]

Don't know the accuracy record of this model but this simulation seems on target for me. I fully expect Michael to strengthen until landfall

 https://twitter.com/JZ_Lpz/status/1049767845457010691

[txwatcher91]

The satellite appearance is rapidly improving. Those -80C cloud tops are wrapping around the eye tightly with the eye shrinking. Not a good sign.

Starting to think 125-130 knots is quite possible and the storm looks unlikely to go through an ewrc during the next 24 hours as it is doing it either.

If weakening does happen it will be very close.

Category 5 is possible here as well. This deep convection will quickly spin it up now that the eyewall is closed and mix winds to the surface better. The look on IR is like a WPAC storm blowing up not an Atlantic one.

[La Sirena]

Don't know the accuracy record of this model but this simulation seems on target for me. I fully expect Michael to strengthen until landfall

https://twitter.com/JZ_Lpz/status/1049767845457010691

That’s terrifying....and I live in Dothan lol. God have mercy on all in this storms path.

[pcolaman]

Seeing GFS with 944 just off shore in the Panama City Port Saint Joe area

[KWT]

Worth noting that the airforce plane is experience 60-70kts FL winds even before it does it's NE-SW pass, the wind field looks bigger to me.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The satellite appearance is rapidly improving. Those -80C cloud tops are wrapping around the eye tightly with the eye shrinking. Not a good sign.

Starting to think 125-130 knots is quite possible and the storm looks unlikely to go through an ewrc during the next 24 hours as it is doing it either.

If weakening does happen it will be very close.

Category 5 is possible here as well. This deep convection will quickly spin it up now that the eyewall is closed and mix winds to the surface better. The look on IR is like a WPAC storm blowing up not an Atlantic one.

Nah...I dont think there is enough of an outflow jet for it to peak that high

[sponger]

Panama City is in big trouble. So is Mexico Beach and Cape San Blas. Tallahassee will get worked as well.

[caneman]

http://www.fox13news.com/news/local-news/hurricane-sends-high-tide-washing-into-bay-area-streets

Coffee Pot Bayou in St. Pete already has street flooding. It may get ugly there tomorrow. It's crazy!

Tidal flooding on Longboat Key also so as the surge increases I expect that to get worse.

Gonna be bad. We're also on astronomical high tide. High tide is at 2 p.m.tomorrow. Probably not going to be good for Tampa Bay and really not good for points North.

[otowntiger]

I’m hoping a sudden burst of shear weakens this right now but that’s almost no chance of happening, it’s pretty sickening to see such a nasty hurricane make landfall tomorrow evening

personally I still think there is a very decent chance that the storm does weaken significantly just prior to landfall just like almost all of them do in this area. However the “damage” will be done regarding the built up water it will push onshore in the form of surge. Wind could drop quite a bit however keeping this from being the horrific catastrophe we can all envision. We can hope.

Yeah many storms are slow moving coming on to shore and are infiltrated by continental air. But given the speed of the storm and huge western trough bringing air in from the gulf it does not seem to be much of an issue this time. What factors do you think will contribute to weakening.

dry air, shear, and the usual mysterious weakening that almost always happens just before landfall. I say mysterious because it is not always predicted and in some cases there is no known factor for it. In my life time the only storm that didn’t seem to weaken right before landfall in this area is Frederick- every other one that I can think of did disapate a good bit.

[cycloneye]

ICyclone is in Panama City.

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1049770829737799682

[NDG]

NOAA Dropsonde, down to 956 mb if not 955mb.

[SeaBrz_FL]

This seems like a pretty unlikely scenario at this point. Pretty much every positive factor would have to come together perfectly, and quickly.

Depending on how quickly it moves, it still has 18-24 hours over water which is more than enough for this to bomb out and hit 934mb. It's probably in the 950s right now already and hot towers are firing all around now.

Yeah, it's certainly possible.

Is it just me, or is there a distinct lack of recon for a major storm just a day or so away from the US coast? In the recon thread I don't even see any missions from today, last one I see was late last night. Really want to know what the pressure is and if we're going to see it start dropping like a rock or if it's more steady-ish.

Levi Cowan does a great job of tracking the Recon flights @ https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ . They've flown four flights in the past 6 hours, and has already been posted, will fly hourly as long as possible.

[johngaltfla]

Don't know the accuracy record of this model but this simulation seems on target for me. I fully expect Michael to strengthen until landfall

That would be a worse case scenario, no doubt about it. The surge alone would go at least 2-3 miles plus inland depending on where on the coast it comes ashore. Not to mention, South Georgia is TOTALLY unprepared for this.

[sponger]

Don't know the accuracy record of this model but this simulation seems on target for me. I fully expect Michael to strengthen until landfall

That would be a worse case scenario, no doubt about it. The surge alone would go at least 2-3 miles plus inland depending on where on the coast it comes ashore. Not to mention, South Georgia is TOTALLY unprepared for this.

Valdosta should be getting fairly worried by now.

[eastcoastFL]

Appears to be headed NE now. Hes making the turn...

[johngaltfla]

Don't know the accuracy record of this model but this simulation seems on target for me. I fully expect Michael to strengthen until landfall

That would be a worse case scenario, no doubt about it. The surge alone would go at least 2-3 miles plus inland depending on where on the coast it comes ashore. Not to mention, South Georgia is TOTALLY unprepared for this.

Valdosta should be getting fairly worried by now.

Yup. They are right front quadrant and I doubt winds will be below 100 mph by the time it gets there. Add in saturated ground and high winds to those pine trees, it is just not good, not good at all.

[Abdullah]

So when was the last time Panama City got hit directly by a Major Hurricane?

I played around with the website
coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes . This is what I found
I have found 8 major hurricanes that have gone 65 nautical miles of Panama City.

All were Category 3
The 2 strongest were both 110 knots and were in 1917 and 1882. 1917 peaked while in the Caribbean, and the 1882 one peaked while landfall.

The most recent was Elena, but that doesn't count because it was on the very edge of the circle for so little time and it made landfall somewhere else. So It'll have to be 1975 Eloise, which missed by 30-40 nautical miles.

1894 and 1851 were two perfect hits on Panama City.

1896 is the only major I didn't mention.

That's all I have to say.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Levi has a quick video up

[youtube]https://youtu.be/4bgdSiM-fWE[/youtube]


He is in Tallahassee so he has to prepare as well