ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chaser1]

This seems like a decent page for Dvorak updates.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt06L.html

You have recon, i suggest using that.

So you're saying there is no point in becoming familiar with the dvorak technique for future use cases, because we have recon available for this one?

I find the Dvorak and a range of Satellite products invaluable given the massive swaths of ocean that we are just not capable of relying on recon. Nothing could be more ideal then having recon data for the purpose of learning satellite interpretation through the accurate and real-time data that recon gleans.

[Hammy]

Is anyone else having trouble with Tropical Tidbits model and floater loops loading the actual frames?

[TheAustinMan]

Dropsonde winds are more representative of gust instead of sustained winds. Definitely not a category 5 right now, although Florence has a chance to become one.

Yes, but isn't the lowest 150 meter mean wind more representative of the actual max sustained wind speed? However, it's definitely strange there weren't any flight level winds above 107 knots in the southern eyewall...

Need to multiply that by an adjustment factor of ~0.85.

This is true for rule-of-thumb reductions at 150 meter heights, but remember this is an average of gusts measured not only at 150-m above sea level but throughout the air column beneath that, meaning it would probably be closer to the "true" surface wind than a 150-m observation, but that's just a guess. HRD may look into the relationships between winds at around 900 or 950 hPa and surface as we continue to refine our reconnaissance instruments.

In this case, though, the rule of thumb conversion to 123kt seems sensible to me.

[plasticup]

Recon about to enter the core on their third pass now.

[MississippiWx]

Based on a blend of the dropsonde, SFMR and satellite, I would go with 125 kt right now.

I concur. Looks like she’s pushing for Cat 5. If the cloud tops keep cooling, it’s possible for it to happen by this evening.

[Ken711]

Is anyone else having trouble with Tropical Tidbits model and floater loops loading the actual frames?

From Tropical Tidbits

1pm EDT Monday: Due to abnormal traffic, some model products are populating slowly right now. I'm working on the issue.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/NWSNewYorkNY/status/1039207694845009926

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1039204795054280705

[dukeblue219]

Recon just completed another pass through the eye. Minimum extrapolated pressure 942.5mb, max non-flagged SFMR 119kt.

[PavelGaborik10]

Not so sure I would considering jumping up from a category 1 Hurricane from when I went to sleep last night, to a 3 but the time I awake "slow and measured" strengthening, but that's just me.

I agree with that assessment, but I would use the word steady-fast strengthening instead. The deepening doesn't seem all that explosive to me after following the Epac this and other seasons. I still think it reaches that peak intensity of 130-140 knots regardless.

Looks like you guys really upset her earlier.

[plasticup]

942.5 mb extrapolated surface pressure, 122 knots SFMR. Not much changed.

[Aric Dunn]

Gained a little latitude. that encouraging lol.. will probably stair step its way now.

wobble wobble..

[supercane4867]

Remarkable improvements in satellite presentation during the past few hours

[txwatcher91]

Gained a little latitude. that encouraging lol.. will probably stair step its way now.

wobble wobble..

All going according to plan so far.. now the big question is where does she hit? Either upper SC to the Outer Banks are within the realm of possibility and then whether she stalls inland, offshore or just keeps moving... tough one to forecast but I hope everyone is prepared for her.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Remarkable improvements in satellite presentation during the past few hours

Stadium effect is coming into view

[LSU2001]

I know it's not there yet but looking at the infrared and visible pics. Flo is really looking like a buzz saw. Does anyone thing she has a chance of becoming an annular hurricane similar to Isabel????
Tim

[Evenstar]

Would I need to or should I evacuate if I live in Williamsburg? If so by when? I would think the Hampton Roads area would begin evacuations sometime tomorrow, but I do not exactly know.

The sooner the better. The coverage will pick up soon and people will really start hauling. You don't want to get stuck in that mass of traffic. I would leave today.

Yeah I have a plan, I just wasn’t sure if it was warranted for the Chesapeake area or not but I could easily see us getting hurricane force winds or at least a lot of flooding from the stalling that may occur.

I'm in Chesapeake too. I'm not gonna lie, I'm getting progressively more concerned with each advisory.

[GCANE]

944mb on the drop

[Hugo1989]

Remarkable improvements in satellite presentation during the past few hours

Stadium effect is coming into view

Can you share the link for the floater images? I thought they we're not working.

[WolfpackRed83]

I'm at Lake Gaston (on the VA/NC border between interstate 95 and 85) We have a home in WmBurg, but that doesn't seem like an option for safety either. I worry about trees, but we do have a whole house generator at the lake. What to do? What to do?