ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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ColdMiser123
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1941 Postby ColdMiser123 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:26 pm

UK would be close to a SC/GA border landfall.

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.7N 52.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.09.2018 0 24.7N 52.5W 990 66
1200UTC 08.09.2018 12 24.4N 53.7W 989 59
0000UTC 09.09.2018 24 24.2N 54.6W 989 51
1200UTC 09.09.2018 36 24.2N 55.6W 988 56
0000UTC 10.09.2018 48 24.5N 57.0W 983 58
1200UTC 10.09.2018 60 25.0N 59.1W 978 62
0000UTC 11.09.2018 72 25.8N 61.9W 972 67
1200UTC 11.09.2018 84 26.1N 65.6W 966 69
0000UTC 12.09.2018 96 26.6N 68.6W 962 80
1200UTC 12.09.2018 108 27.5N 71.5W 959 81
0000UTC 13.09.2018 120 28.9N 74.3W 953 87
1200UTC 13.09.2018 132 30.3N 77.0W 946 87
0000UTC 14.09.2018 144 31.4N 79.2W 939 87
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1942 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:30 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:UK would be close to a SC/GA border landfall.

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.7N 52.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.09.2018 0 24.7N 52.5W 990 66
1200UTC 08.09.2018 12 24.4N 53.7W 989 59
0000UTC 09.09.2018 24 24.2N 54.6W 989 51
1200UTC 09.09.2018 36 24.2N 55.6W 988 56
0000UTC 10.09.2018 48 24.5N 57.0W 983 58
1200UTC 10.09.2018 60 25.0N 59.1W 978 62
0000UTC 11.09.2018 72 25.8N 61.9W 972 67
1200UTC 11.09.2018 84 26.1N 65.6W 966 69
0000UTC 12.09.2018 96 26.6N 68.6W 962 80
1200UTC 12.09.2018 108 27.5N 71.5W 959 81
0000UTC 13.09.2018 120 28.9N 74.3W 953 87
1200UTC 13.09.2018 132 30.3N 77.0W 946 87
0000UTC 14.09.2018 144 31.4N 79.2W 939 87



just off savannah as a cat 4.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1943 Postby MrJames » Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:35 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:UK would be close to a SC/GA border landfall.

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.7N 52.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.09.2018 0 24.7N 52.5W 990 66
1200UTC 08.09.2018 12 24.4N 53.7W 989 59
0000UTC 09.09.2018 24 24.2N 54.6W 989 51
1200UTC 09.09.2018 36 24.2N 55.6W 988 56
0000UTC 10.09.2018 48 24.5N 57.0W 983 58
1200UTC 10.09.2018 60 25.0N 59.1W 978 62
0000UTC 11.09.2018 72 25.8N 61.9W 972 67
1200UTC 11.09.2018 84 26.1N 65.6W 966 69
0000UTC 12.09.2018 96 26.6N 68.6W 962 80
1200UTC 12.09.2018 108 27.5N 71.5W 959 81
0000UTC 13.09.2018 120 28.9N 74.3W 953 87
1200UTC 13.09.2018 132 30.3N 77.0W 946 87
0000UTC 14.09.2018 144 31.4N 79.2W 939 87


Here are the last 4 plot points to show the direction.

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1944 Postby MrJames » Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:41 pm

Full UK Met.

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1945 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:43 pm

MrJames wrote:Full UK Met.


Anyone have a comparison to the 12z UK...did it trend Southwest or is this consistent with 12z?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1946 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:45 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
MrJames wrote:Full UK Met.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/suPpAO9.gif


Anyone have a comparison to the 12z UK...did it trend Southwest or is this consistent with 12z?


A bit north and notably faster to the coast.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1947 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:46 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
MrJames wrote:Full UK Met.


Anyone have a comparison to the 12z UK...did it trend Southwest or is this consistent with 12z?


here you go .. you can always go this site and see the animations.

posting.php?mode=quote&f=59&p=2702930
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1948 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:47 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:
MrJames wrote:Full UK Met.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/suPpAO9.gif


Anyone have a comparison to the 12z UK...did it trend Southwest or is this consistent with 12z?


A bit north and notably faster to the coast.

it is faster but not north .. slightly south. less of a curve more linear.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1949 Postby bamajammer4eva » Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:52 pm

UK 12z vs 00z

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1950 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:53 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
MrJames wrote:Full UK Met.



Anyone have a comparison to the 12z UK...did it trend Southwest or is this consistent with 12z?


The 0z UKMET is 1 degree farther north and 2.4 degrees farther west, so over all it’s a westward shift.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1951 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:54 pm

bamajammer4eva wrote:UK 12z vs 00z

Image

The UKMET is saying go there right now
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1952 Postby tomatkins » Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:00 am

Ends up in a very similar place (maybe a little south) but gets there faster by going straighter.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1953 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:01 am

HWRF is so far coming in a hair south of the 18z at 39 hours by about 1/2 a degree.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1954 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:02 am

The FV GFS much further south
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1955 Postby emeraldislenc » Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:05 am

So with the models shifting south does that mean less of a threat for NC or is it too early to say?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1956 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:07 am

emeraldislenc wrote:So with the models shifting south does that mean less of a threat for NC or is it too early to say?


WAY TO EARLY TO CALL ANYONE IN THE CLEAR. Florida to Maine is still in play.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1957 Postby bamajammer4eva » Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:08 am

emeraldislenc wrote:So with the models shifting south does that mean less of a threat for NC or is it too early to say?


Everyone up or down the US East coast is at risk and needs to watch and in fact NC is the only state that has declared a state of emergency.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1958 Postby drewschmaltz » Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:09 am

emeraldislenc wrote:So with the models shifting south does that mean less of a threat for NC or is it too early to say?


My .02 is that it has not changed. But, if anything the threat has gone up.
Last edited by drewschmaltz on Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1959 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:10 am

AtlanticWind wrote:The FV GFS much further south


That’s a real big shift by the FV3. That almost puts the Northern Bahamas in the on deck circle.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1960 Postby Bocadude85 » Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:11 am

The FV3-GFS is way southwest, about 1.5 degrees south and just shy of a degree west at 120hrs
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