ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[weathaguyry]

Are models trending towards less impact for areas in the Mid-Atlantic/NE, or is there still an elevated threat for some impacts?

[SouthFLTropics]

How has the performance been on the FV3 this year? Isn’t that supposed to be the GFS replacement?

[SouthFLTropics]

Are models trending towards less impact for areas in the Mid-Atlantic/NE, or is there still an elevated threat for some impacts?

I’d say the odds are spread out equally among the entire East Coast right now with coastal Georgia, SC, and NC among the highest %.

[Bocadude85]

How has the performance been on the FV3 this year? Isn’t that supposed to be the GFS replacement?

It seems to be hit or miss, it has been one of the farther east models the last few days, and now it seems to be one of the farthest south.

[bamajammer4eva]

FVGFS trend: stronger ridge keeps pushing the Flo to the left

[AtlanticWind]

When is this trend gonna stop?

[Aric Dunn]

When is this trend gonna stop?

who knows. we need more data.

[Hurricaneman]

When is this trend gonna stop?

When it makes landfall jk but probably when we get the upper air data put in

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS Ensembles are running and through 84 hours it appears a good portion of them have shifted South. Whether that makes a difference in the remainder of the run remains to be seen.

[SouthFLTropics]

When is this trend gonna stop?

When it makes landfall jk but probably when we get the upper air data put in

Speaking of upper air data...have the NWS stations begun additional balloon launches???

[Hurricaneman]

When is this trend gonna stop?

When it makes landfall jk but probably when we get the upper air data put in

Speaking of upper air data...have the NWS stations begun additional balloon launches???

I believe tomorrow with recon too

[SouthFLTropics]

Definitely a much larger spread on the GFS ensembles at 108. Bahamas, you’re on deck!!!

[Bocadude85]

The 0z HMON has been running about a degree west and south through 105hrs.

[MWatkins]

When is this trend gonna stop?

When? In about 5-6 days.

I was so motivated to reply with a smart-bleep comment that I had to reset my password and everything.

Seriously - this has the potential to be an extraordinary event. That ridge is forecast to become 3 standard deviations stronger than climo. I mentioned to someone recently that I don't remember so much summertime rain in south Florida in June/July/Aug since 2004 - which featured a 3 standard deviation trough to pick up Charley.

Even in the GFS - which is so prone to weakening western Atlantic ridges - the closest trough to Florence in 120 hours is out in New Mexico.

Normal logic <> apply.

MW

[birddogsc]

When is this trend gonna stop?

When it makes landfall jk but probably when we get the upper air data put in

Speaking of upper air data...have the NWS stations begun additional balloon launches???

 https://twitter.com/NWSTallahassee/status/1038157380255731712

[TheDreamTraveler]

Not able to post it but someone else in another forum says that the 00z GEFS has one member in Florida for the first time and 2 in Georgia with the rest north of that.

[Aric Dunn]

When is this trend gonna stop?

When? In about 5-6 days.

I was so motivated to reply with a smart-bleep comment that I had to reset my password and everything.

Seriously - this has the potential to be an extraordinary event. That ridge is forecast to become 3 standard deviations stronger than climo. I mentioned to someone recently that I don't remember so much summertime rain in south Florida in June/July/Aug since 2004 - which featured a 3 standard deviation trough to pick up Charley.

Even in the GFS - which is so prone to weakening western Atlantic ridges - the closest trough to Florence in 120 hours is out in New Mexico.

Normal logic <> apply.

MW

Hey there Mr. Watkins !

I was mentioning this very same thing just a couple days ago. the complete lack of troughs. I cannot recall anything quite like this..

looking at everything it really makes me want to think that we may see some more substantial southward shifts..

[hurricaneCW]

The chance of an OTS track are probably 10% now, if the gfs were 50 miles further east then it could've stalled just offshore however most models are continuing to trend SW, making that scenario less likely.

I do think the storm will slow down considerably after LF and be a massive flooding threat. It's still too close to call where that will be though.

I can't even begin to describe how rare this steering pattern is as well as Florence's overall track in mid September. Not once has a storm that far N&E made it all the way across the Atlantic to the US.

[AtlanticWind]

When is this trend gonna stop?

When? In about 5-6 days.

I was so motivated to reply with a smart-bleep comment that I had to reset my password and everything.

Seriously - this has the potential to be an extraordinary event. That ridge is forecast to become 3 standard deviations stronger than climo. I mentioned to someone recently that I don't remember so much summertime rain in south Florida in June/July/Aug since 2004 - which featured a 3 standard deviation trough to pick up Charley.
Hey,Welcome back ,glad my post got you back
Even in the GFS - which is so prone to weakening western Atlantic ridges - the closest trough to Florence in 120 hours is out in New Mexico.

Normal logic <> apply.

MW

Hi welcome back

[MWatkins]

Those goofy offshore loops have vanished from the model solutions - at least for now. Having the Euro driving Flo well inland at 12Z is a significant signal that there may be no rescue trough this time. With Irma, the stronger than expected ridge essentially saved south Florida from a catastrophic event via Cuba. This time, there is not a significant land mass in sight until the US...so even if it gets driven south - unless the models are way off on intensity - somebody is going to have to prepare for a significant peak season Atlantic hurricane.

MW