ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS ENSEMBLE TREND

[CENTER]
[/CENTER]

[Aric Dunn]

Those goofy offshore loops have vanished from the model solutions - at least for now. Having the Euro driving Flo well inland at 12Z is a significant signal that there may be no rescue trough this time. With Irma, the stronger than expected ridge essentially saved south Florida from a catastrophic event via Cuba. This time, there is not a significant land mass in sight until the US...so even if it gets driven south - unless the models are way off on intensity - somebody is going to have to prepare for a significant peak season Atlantic hurricane.

MW

Agreed. South florida to the carolinas are still in play.. going to be a long week..

[TheDreamTraveler]

Those goofy offshore loops have vanished from the model solutions - at least for now. Having the Euro driving Flo well inland at 12Z is a significant signal that there may be no rescue trough this time. With Irma, the stronger than expected ridge essentially saved south Florida from a catastrophic event via Cuba. This time, there is not a significant land mass in sight until the US...so even if it gets driven south - unless the models are way off on intensity - somebody is going to have to prepare for a significant peak season Atlantic hurricane.

MW

The loops offshore aren't there anymore. They got replaced by it stalling or slowly moving as it moves north after landfall which would be even worse imo

[Ivanhater]

Man it is good to see Mike Watkins back!

[Aric Dunn]

good start to the EUro .. showing what is currently happening..

[AtlanticWind]

Looks like a bad situation, I don't like to compare storms but this kinda reminds me of Andrew (pray it isn't that strong)
But this strong ridge looks like this is going to drive this into the SE U.S.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like a bad situation, I don't like to compare storms but this kinda reminds me of Andrew (pray is isn't that strong)
But this strong ridge looks like this is going o drive this into the SE U.S.

IT has a little bit of Andrew, Isabel, and Hugo going on...

[TheDreamTraveler]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1038282699054739456

[MWatkins]

Man it is good to see Mike Watkins back!

It's good to see so many peeps from the old days still here. I spend most days these days building predictive models for business stuff, so by the time I get home I'm either messing around with model features or avoiding the computer entirely. But, this tropical stuff is why I get to do modeling for a living, because the tropics are way harder to model than a typical business trend. It's been - yikes - almost 16 years since I registered.

Even this year - with zero activity in August and forecasts of an inactive season, who would have even thought, let alone say out loud, that we could have a system at 25/55 being seriously considered for a SE US landfall? Where did all of the easterly trade winds go?

Now the displaced warm oceanic heat content and SST's are working against us - because that's going to be, at least probably, feeding the ridging and Florence.

Mike

[TheDreamTraveler]

FV3 GFS 18z

[Aric Dunn]

Euro deepening faster this run and wobbling back and forth with W to wsw motion trough 36 hours.

however if it does not wobble then a continued wsw course for 48 hours ..

[Hurricaneman]

FV3 GFS

That’s 18z the 0z isn’t finished yet

[AxaltaRacing24]

A bit more SE than the previous run.

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zEuro is moving west at 48hrs at 23.8nn

[Aric Dunn]

The 0zEuro is moving west at 48hrs at 23.8nn

more wsw movemnt at 60 hours.. still south of 24 north .

[Ivanhater]

Man it is good to see Mike Watkins back!

It's good to see so many peeps from the old days still here. I spend most days these days building predictive models for business stuff, so by the time I get home I'm either messing around with model features or avoiding the computer entirely. But, this tropical stuff is why I get to do modeling for a living, because the tropics are way harder to model than a typical business trend. It's been - yikes - almost 16 years since I registered.

Even this year - with zero activity in August and forecasts of an inactive season, who would have even thought, let alone say out loud, that we could have a system at 25/55 being seriously considered for a SE US landfall? Where did all of the easterly trade winds go?

Now the displaced warm oceanic heat content and SST's are working against us - because that's going to be, at least probably, feeding the ridging and Florence.

Mike

I remember listening to your radio show in 2005 in high school. This is truly an amazing weather community. Sorry to get off topic.

You are right. This was touted as a dead year and now we have a dangerous storm ahead.

[chaser1]

Under present circumstances with the westerlies remaining zonal confined to the northern latitudes and without a discernible long wave pattern dropping repetitive short waves into the lower latitude flow, how does one anticipate the cause or rationale for a 594 mb ridge to extend 5-8 degrees even further east or west then presently forecast? For that matter, what upstream event might be anticipated to help foresee whether high pressure will continue to build west forcing Florence to continue on her westward trek? If not for the storms already 24.0 N latitude and if we were made to believe it were actually late July instead, the conversation might sound more like "where in the Gulf will this thing go?".

[Aric Dunn]

[Aric Dunn]

Man it is good to see Mike Watkins back!

It's good to see so many peeps from the old days still here. I spend most days these days building predictive models for business stuff, so by the time I get home I'm either messing around with model features or avoiding the computer entirely. But, this tropical stuff is why I get to do modeling for a living, because the tropics are way harder to model than a typical business trend. It's been - yikes - almost 16 years since I registered.

Even this year - with zero activity in August and forecasts of an inactive season, who would have even thought, let alone say out loud, that we could have a system at 25/55 being seriously considered for a SE US landfall? Where did all of the easterly trade winds go?

Now the displaced warm oceanic heat content and SST's are working against us - because that's going to be, at least probably, feeding the ridging and Florence.

Mike

I remember listening to your radio show in 2005 in high school. This is truly an amazing weather community. Sorry to get off topic.

You are right. This was touted as a dead year and now we have a dangerous storm ahead.

Hey I was on there too lol though MIke was the bomb.

it has been a long time..

by the way.. there some talks about getting the station going again.

[bamajammer4eva]

Ridge is actually weaker at 72 hrs