WPAC: SOULIK - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Forecast to rapidly intensify to a Cat 4...

WDPN35 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 478 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 160618Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS IMPROVED SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE WITH SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY TWO STRONG TUTT CELLS,
POSITIONED NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY,
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS GOOD, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FAVORABLE, SST
IS CONDUCIVE (29-30C) AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE HIGH. THUS,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). TS 22W IS TRACKING POLEWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE POSITIONED TO
THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 22W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU
48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STEERING
INFLUENCE, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY BY
TAU 36 AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS EAST OF HONSHU
AND CREATES A BREAK IN THE STEERING RIDGE. THERE IS INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST FROM TAU 36 TO TAU 72 (250NM
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48) DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW
EACH MODEL HANDLES THE TROUGH / STEERING RIDGE INTERACTION. FOR
EXAMPLE, NAVGEM SHOWS LITTLE INFLUENCE AND BUILDS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IN QUICKLY PRODUCING A SHARP WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD KADENA
WHILE GFS INDICATES A SLOW NORTH-NORTHEAST TRACK THEN MORE GRADUAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN TOWARD KYUSHU. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATES A SLOW-DOWN AND A BRIEF INTERACTION WITH THIS
STRONG, DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXISTING AND FORECAST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, TS 22W IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AFTER TAU
24 TO A PEAK OF 115 KNOTS BY TAUY 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 22W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AS THE STR BUILDS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DUE
TO A LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS OF 700NM AT TAU 120. NAVGEM AND HWRF
REMAIN THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT (IMPROVED SINCE THE LAST MODEL RUN). TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN14 PGTW 160953

A. TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK)

B. 16/0900Z

C. 17.71N

D. 124.24E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 13A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
16/0618Z 16.95N 142.30E SSMS


VEERKAMP

TXPQ24 KNES 160954
TCSWNP

A. 22W (SOULIK)

B. 16/0830Z

C. 17.1N

D. 141.7E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. DT
OF 3.0 IS BASED ON 0.6 CURVED BAND AS SEEN IN 0817Z SSMIS AND 0823Z
WINDSAT. MET IS 2.0 AND PT IS 2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

[euro6208]

EURO and GFS in perfect agreement that this will hit southern Kyushu. Peak for EURO is 955 mb and weakens before landfall whereas GFS bottoms this to 906 mb at peak/landfall...

[mrbagyo]

Hmmm, pretty rapid development.

[Yellow Evan]

This isn't going to get anywhere near as strong as the globals, which tend to overdue systems south of Japan, think it will.

[Yellow Evan]

TPPN14 PGTW 161835

A. TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK)

B. 16/1750Z

C. 20.10N

D. 141.44E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.0 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


RICHARDSON

[euro6208]

WDPN35 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 276 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
ASYMMETRIC SYSTEM, WITH A CONSOLIDATING LLCC TO THE SOUTH OF AN AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION AND A POSSIBLE NASCENT EYE FEATURE. A 161549Z
AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE SHOWS THE IMPROVED SIGNATURE, WITH TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AND PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE PGTW AND KNES CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5
(55 KNOTS), PRIMARILY DUE TO THE RAPIDLY IMPROVING STRUCTURE, THE
NASCENT EYE FEATURE AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 60 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF TS 22W, AND IS INDUCING SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM, WHICH IS CAUSING THE ASYMMETRIC APPEARANCE. HOWEVER, THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD DIFFLUENT
OUTFLOW INTO TWO TUTT CELLS, POSITIONED NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM. EQUATORWARD HOWEVER, IS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. VWS IS LOW
TO MODERATE AT 15-20 KNOTS, SSTS ARE SUPPORTIVE (29-30C) AND OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE HIGH. TS 22W IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE
EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 22W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU
24 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STEERING
RIDGE, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY,
BECOMING NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48, AS A MID-
LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITS TO THE NORTH, CREATING A COL
AREA, IN WHICH TS 22W WILL MEANDER FOR ROUGHLY 24 HOURS. BY TAU 72,
THE TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
IN BEHIND IT OVER JAPAN, PUSHING TS 22W ONTO A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK BY TAU 72. TS SOULIK IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT FIRST TAPS INTO STRONGLY DIFFLUENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO THE TWO PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TUTT CELLS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS, THEN TAPS INTO THE DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. ALL AVAILABLE MODELS AGREE THAT THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
HAVE LITTLE DIRECT INTERACTION WITH TS 22W, AND THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BEFORE TURNING
NORTHWESTWARD. MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THOUGH TAU 48 BUT SHOW
INCREASING UNCERTAINLY AND SPREAD BY TAU 72, WITH NAVGEM CONTINUING
TO SHOW A TRACK WESTWARD TOWARDS OKINAWA AFTER TAU 24, AND HWRF
SHOWING A MORE POLEWARD, THOUGH STILL NORTHWESTWARD, TRACK AFTER TAU
48. OVERALL THERE IS A 175 NM SPREAD BETWEEN ALL MODELS AT TAU 72.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
ECMWF SOLUTION, WHICH HAS WITH THIS RUN MOVED SIGNIFICANTLY
SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 22W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARDS SOUTHERN KYUSHU AS THE STR STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY TAU 96, AS
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CHOKE OFF THE PRIMARY POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL AND INCREASES VWS. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY AT
105 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 120, AS BY THAT POINT THE SYSTEM WILL START TO
TAP INTO THE DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH, WHICH SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY DESPITE
DECREASING SSTS AND INCREASING VWS. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS, BUT
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST WITH A 550 NM SPREAD AT TAU 120. NAVGEM AND GALWEM ARE THE
PRIMARY OUTLIERS WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IN FAIR AGREEMENT.
THE JTWC TRACK LIES JUST NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IN
LIGHT OF THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK AND THE
LEVEL OF INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, THE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

22W SOULIK 180817 0000 21.5N 140.9E WPAC 65 974

Upgraded to the 8th typhoon of the season.

[NotoSans]

Looks like a T3.5/3.5 to me instead and microwave imagery does not support TY intesnity.

[euro6208]

Looking good...

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1030199034043150337

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

TPPN14 PGTW 170003

A. TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK)

B. 16/2330Z

C. 21.44N

D. 141.05E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.1
ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 4.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
16/2054Z 20.95N 141.32E WIND


RICHARDSON

TXPQ24 KNES 162133
TCSWNP

A. 22W (SOULIK)

B. 16/2030Z

C. 20.8N

D. 141.4E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA.
CONVECTION WRAPS .9 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET = 3.0
AND PT = 3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

[euro6208]

WDPN35 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK)
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 199 NM SOUTH OF IWO
TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE MASS
OF DEEP CONVECTION (250NM IN DIAMETER) WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND A POSSIBLE NASCENT EYE
FEATURE. A 162216Z GMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE IMPROVED
SIGNATURE AND REVEALS A LOW LEVEL EYE FEATURE ON THE SOUTHEASTERN
SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, PROVIDING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS,
BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS), SUPPORTED BY THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND EYE FEATURE OBSERVED IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
REMAINS CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TY 22W, AND IS INDUCING
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS CAUSING THE ASYMMETRIC
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. HOWEVER, THIS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
HELPING TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW INTO TWO TUTT
CELLS, POSITIONED NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, IS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. VWS IS LOW TO MODERATE AT
10-20 KNOTS, SSTS ARE SUPPORTIVE (29-30C), AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
VALUES ARE HIGH. TY 22W IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TYPHOON 22W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGH
TAU 24 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STEERING
RIDGE; HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY,
BECOMING NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 36, AS A MID-
LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITS TO THE NORTH CREATING A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH 22W WILL MEANDER FOR ROUGHLY 12 TO 24
HOURS. AFTER TAU 48, THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
STRONG RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT OVER JAPAN, PUSHING THE SYSTEM ONTO
A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. TYPHOON SOULIK IS FORECAST TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT TAPS INTO STRONGLY
DIFFLUENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AIDED BY THE TWO PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
TUTT CELLS AND THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALL AVAILABLE MODELS
AGREE THAT THIS MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL HAVE LITTLE DIRECT
INTERACTION WITH 22W AND THAT THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY IN
THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BEFORE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD. MODELS
ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 BUT SHOW INCREASING SPREAD
THEREAFTER, WITH NAVGEM AND GALWEM THE TWO OUTLIERS SHOWING A TRACK
TO THE SOUTH OVER THE KURIL ISLANDS, AND THE BULK OF THE MODELS
TRACKING 22W OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN AROUND TAU 120. OVERALL, THERE IS
MUCH TIGHTER AGREEMENT WITH A 130 NM SPREAD AT TAU 72. THE JTWC
TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TYPHOON SOULIK IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN KYUSHU AS THE STR STRENGTHENS TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. 22W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY TAU 96,
AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CHOKE OFF THE PRIMARY POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL AND INCREASES VWS. INTENSITY WILL THEN DROP OFF GRADUALLY AS
THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, ALONG
WITH DECREASING SSTS AND INCREASING VWS. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE HAS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS,
BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST WITH A 380 NM SPREAD AT TAU 120. NAVGEM AND GALWEM ARE
THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. THE JTWC TRACK LIES JUST NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. IN LIGHT OF THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
TRACK AND THE LEVEL OF INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN14 PGTW 170315

A. TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK)

B. 17/0250Z

C. 22.54N

D. 140.51E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY MG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 4.5. MET YEILDS A
4.0 AND PT A 4.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
16/2216Z 21.37N 140.98E GPMI


RICHARDSON

[euro6208]

Well that was fast...

[euro6208]

Up to 75 knots.

22W SOULIK 180817 0600 23.2N 140.3E WPAC 75 967

[Yellow Evan]

17/0230 UTC 22.4N 140.7E T4.5/4.5 SOULIK -- West Pacific

[NotoSans]

Still looks a bit high to me. Dvorak (esp the eye pattern) has a tendency to overestimate such systems with large, ragged eye. Microwave does not show a closed eyewall at the moment either.

[doomhaMwx]

HWRF model still not so enthusiastic.