TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018
1500 UTC THU JUL 05 2018
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 41.4W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 41.4W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 40.8W
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 10.7N 43.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 11.4N 45.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 12.1N 47.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 12.9N 49.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.7N 56.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.2N 41.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
1100 AM AST Thu Jul 05 2018
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE
WEEKEND...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.2N 41.4W
ABOUT 1385 MI...2230 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 10.2 North, longitude 41.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A fast
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through the
weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible, and the depression could become a
tropical storm later today or on Friday. The system is forecast to
degenerate into an open trough east of the Lesser Antilles over the
weekend.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Berg
Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
1100 AM AST Thu Jul 05 2018
For the past day or so, we've been monitoring a small area of low
pressure associated with a tropical wave over the tropical Atlantic
Ocean. Despite a noticeable mid-level rotation in the convective
clouds, it had not been conclusive whether or not the system had a
closed circulation at the surface with a well-defined center.
However, the system appears more distinct and independent from the
Intertropical Convergence Zone as compared to yesterday, and
scatterometer data appears conclusive enough to support a closed,
yet tiny circulation. We are now confident enough that the system
meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and have initiated
advisories on Tropical Depression Two with maximum winds of 30 kt,
which is supported by Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.
The depression will be located in a relatively low-shear environment
for the next 3 days or so. However, the small cyclone is surrounded
by abundant dry air, and the system will be moving over marginally
warm waters during the next few days, which could both limit
intensification. The NHC official forecast allows for some slight
strengthening and most closely follows the HFIP Corrected Consensus
guidance (HCCA), showing the depression becoming a tropical storm
within the next 24 hours. Between 72 and 96 hours, the system is
expected to begin encountering strong westerly shear and also
accelerate, both of which should cause it to degenerate into an open
wave east of the Lesser Antilles.
Even though the center has been difficult to locate, the initial
motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/14 kt. The depression is
located to the south of a sprawling subtropical ridge, although a
break in the ridge over the central Atlantic may cause the system to
slow down a bit during the next 36 hours. After that time, the
cyclone is likely to speed up again when it becomes situated to the
south of a new mid-level high. The track guidance is in generally
good agreement, and the NHC official forecast is close to the TVCX
multi-model consensus and the HCCA guidance.
Even though the cyclone is expected to dissipate east of the Lesser
Antilles early next week, the remnant tropical wave will continue
moving quickly westward, likely bringing locally heavy rains and
gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands on Sunday and Monday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 10.2N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 10.7N 43.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 11.4N 45.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 12.1N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 12.9N 49.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 14.7N 56.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018
1500 UTC THU JUL 05 2018
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 41.4W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 41.4W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 40.8W
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 10.7N 43.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 11.4N 45.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 12.1N 47.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 12.9N 49.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.7N 56.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.2N 41.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
1100 AM AST Thu Jul 05 2018
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE
WEEKEND...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.2N 41.4W
ABOUT 1385 MI...2230 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 10.2 North, longitude 41.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A fast
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through the
weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible, and the depression could become a
tropical storm later today or on Friday. The system is forecast to
degenerate into an open trough east of the Lesser Antilles over the
weekend.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Berg
Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
1100 AM AST Thu Jul 05 2018
For the past day or so, we've been monitoring a small area of low
pressure associated with a tropical wave over the tropical Atlantic
Ocean. Despite a noticeable mid-level rotation in the convective
clouds, it had not been conclusive whether or not the system had a
closed circulation at the surface with a well-defined center.
However, the system appears more distinct and independent from the
Intertropical Convergence Zone as compared to yesterday, and
scatterometer data appears conclusive enough to support a closed,
yet tiny circulation. We are now confident enough that the system
meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and have initiated
advisories on Tropical Depression Two with maximum winds of 30 kt,
which is supported by Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.
The depression will be located in a relatively low-shear environment
for the next 3 days or so. However, the small cyclone is surrounded
by abundant dry air, and the system will be moving over marginally
warm waters during the next few days, which could both limit
intensification. The NHC official forecast allows for some slight
strengthening and most closely follows the HFIP Corrected Consensus
guidance (HCCA), showing the depression becoming a tropical storm
within the next 24 hours. Between 72 and 96 hours, the system is
expected to begin encountering strong westerly shear and also
accelerate, both of which should cause it to degenerate into an open
wave east of the Lesser Antilles.
Even though the center has been difficult to locate, the initial
motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/14 kt. The depression is
located to the south of a sprawling subtropical ridge, although a
break in the ridge over the central Atlantic may cause the system to
slow down a bit during the next 36 hours. After that time, the
cyclone is likely to speed up again when it becomes situated to the
south of a new mid-level high. The track guidance is in generally
good agreement, and the NHC official forecast is close to the TVCX
multi-model consensus and the HCCA guidance.
Even though the cyclone is expected to dissipate east of the Lesser
Antilles early next week, the remnant tropical wave will continue
moving quickly westward, likely bringing locally heavy rains and
gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands on Sunday and Monday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 10.2N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 10.7N 43.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 11.4N 45.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 12.1N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 12.9N 49.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 14.7N 56.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
they're still confident for Sunday waouw 
