CPAC: OLIVIA - Post-Tropical

[NDG]

Still no hurricane force winds found by the recon, not even on the NE quadrant despite looking good on satellite.

[Kingarabian]

Still no hurricane force winds found by the recon, not even on the NE quadrant despite looking good on satellite.

60kts looks good here. But knowing the CPHC theyll probably keep it as a minimal Cat.1. Also looks like pressure is slowly falling.

[Kingarabian]

12z CMC and Euro continue to be more on the northern side of the envelope, affecting Molokai or Oahu. 12z GFS and UKMET still show a Big Island hit. 12z HMON into Maui.

[Huaka]

Well, it's a good thing I still have the hurricane supplies from Lane. Olivia is moving over warmer water soon (or maybe is already) so that's not good.

[Kingarabian]

Well, it's a good thing I still have the hurricane supplies from Lane. Olivia is moving over warmer water soon (or maybe is already) so that's not good.

That's good. It'll become a mad house if Olivia re-intensifies the way Miriam and Norman did.

[NDG]

Still no hurricane force winds found by the recon, not even on the NE quadrant despite looking good on satellite.

60kts looks good here. But knowing the CPHC theyll probably keep it as a minimal Cat.1. Also looks like pressure is slowly falling.

Pressure up to 990mb per the latest pass.

091
URPN12 KNHC 091926
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP172018
A. 09/18:58:30Z
B. 21.66 deg N 144.52 deg W
C. 700 mb 2974 m
D. 990 mb
E. NA
F. CLOSED
G. E14/25/15
H. 51 kt
I. 042 deg 31 nm 18:49:00Z
J. 116 deg 64 kt
K. 042 deg 33 nm 18:48:30Z
L. 47 kt
M. 223 deg 10 nm 19:01:30Z
N. 313 deg 49 kt
O. 223 deg 12 nm 19:02:00Z
P. 10 C / 3049 m
Q. 12 C / 3049 m
R. 5 C / NA
S. 1234 / 7
T. 0.02 / 0.5 nm
U. AF301 0217E OLIVIA OB 14
MAX FL WIND 65 KT 317 / 33 NM 17:19:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 12 C 021 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR
DROPSONDE LST WND 014 235 DEGREES AT 10 KTS

[Kingarabian]

Still no hurricane force winds found by the recon, not even on the NE quadrant despite looking good on satellite.

60kts looks good here. But knowing the CPHC theyll probably keep it as a minimal Cat.1. Also looks like pressure is slowly falling.

Pressure up to 990mb per the latest pass.

091
URPN12 KNHC 091926
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP172018
A. 09/18:58:30Z
B. 21.66 deg N 144.52 deg W
C. 700 mb 2974 m
D. 990 mb
E. NA
F. CLOSED
G. E14/25/15
H. 51 kt
I. 042 deg 31 nm 18:49:00Z
J. 116 deg 64 kt
K. 042 deg 33 nm 18:48:30Z
L. 47 kt
M. 223 deg 10 nm 19:01:30Z
N. 313 deg 49 kt
O. 223 deg 12 nm 19:02:00Z
P. 10 C / 3049 m
Q. 12 C / 3049 m
R. 5 C / NA
S. 1234 / 7
T. 0.02 / 0.5 nm
U. AF301 0217E OLIVIA OB 14
MAX FL WIND 65 KT 317 / 33 NM 17:19:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 12 C 021 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR
DROPSONDE LST WND 014 235 DEGREES AT 10 KTS

Yup. Eyewall is closed on this VDM so let's see what it can do in the next 36 hours before shear kicks in.

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

Not a good 12z EPS run for Hawaii's most populated areas:



Tightly clustered between Northern Oahu to the southern tip of Maui.

[supercane4867]

Satellite presentation improved significantly since recon left

[Blinhart]

So its gonna be close for a Hurricane to be hitting Hawaii, might be borderline TS/Hurricane

[CrazyC83]

Given the change in satellite presentation, even if 60 kt was probably reasonable at 18Z, I'd go with 65 kt now.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Can anyone think of a time a hurricane hit the islands from the NE? I cant find one

[Kingarabian]

Can anyone think of a time a hurricane hit the islands from the NE? I cant find one

Never. This is an unprecedented track.

[Ubuntwo]

Can anyone think of a time a hurricane hit the islands from the NE? I cant find one

The Hawaii hurricane of 1871 made landfall as a cat 3, though it came from the East. Looks like hurricane Raymond of 1983 came from the northeast, but it made landfall as just a TD.

[CrazyC83]

Can anyone think of a time a hurricane hit the islands from the NE? I cant find one

Never. This is an unprecedented track.

At least in the satellite era, it has never happened. Also before about 1960, there weren't many observations on the windward side of Hawaii.

[Kingarabian]

Cyan ring has returned on this AMSR2 microwave pass:

[Mauistorms]

Cyan ring has returned on this AMSR2 microwave pass:

Is this an indicator of RI?

[Blinhart]

Cyan ring has returned on this AMSR2 microwave pass:

Is this an indicator of RI?

It could be an indicator of Intensification not necessarily RI.

[Kingarabian]

Cyan ring has returned on this AMSR2 microwave pass:
[img]https://i.imgur.com/uutBORd.png[img]

Is this an indicator of RI?

Some studies show it does. It's an important indicator.