ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 43
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#201 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:06 pm



Nope...
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10173
Age: 39
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#202 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:07 pm

Certainly has westerly inflow on the southern side so within my opinion it is clearly closed.

Could become a cyclone again by 11pm. We'll see.
2 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 43
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#203 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:26 pm

Latest Microwave matches well with the earlier visible circ and now with the convection building around it. no doubt it's closed and better organized than yesterday.
Image
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4305
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#204 Postby abajan » Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:36 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Latest Microwave matches well with the earlier visible circ and now with the convection building around it. do doubt it's closed and better organized than yesterday.
https://image.ibb.co/hXqwnU/20180924_17 ... _053pc.jpg

You meant "No doubt". Right?
Last edited by abajan on Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 43
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#205 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:36 pm

abajan wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Latest Microwave matches well with the earlier visible circ and now with the convection building around it. do doubt it's closed and better organized than yesterday.
https://image.ibb.co/hXqwnU/20180924_17 ... _053pc.jpg

You meant "no doubt". Right?


haha yeah.. no doubt. oops
3 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5427
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#206 Postby Nimbus » Mon Sep 24, 2018 2:16 pm

Monday 12Z runs don't do much with Kirk but the GEM/CMC tracks it north of Jamaica into the gulf as a closed circulation. Circulation is getting quite large although I suspect the surface pressure profile is shallow enough that we won't see rapid intensification.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
NotSparta
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1676
Age: 24
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Naples, FL
Contact:
Contact NotSparta

Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#207 Postby NotSparta » Mon Sep 24, 2018 2:16 pm

AL, 12, 2018092418, , BEST, 0, 101N, 405W, 35, 1007, TS


Image
Last edited by NotSparta on Mon Sep 24, 2018 2:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
6 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.

My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4091
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#208 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 24, 2018 2:17 pm

There’s definitely some spin, but it’s very much an open wave at the moment. It has the impression that the spin is mid-level.


EDIT: Welp, looks like it’s back to life.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2943
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#209 Postby AnnularCane » Mon Sep 24, 2018 2:23 pm

I've been fooled once before, I will wait and see what the NHC website says this time! :lol:
1 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 43
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#210 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 24, 2018 2:37 pm

not surprised it will be back to a TS. they jumped the gun down grading it.
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#211 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Sep 24, 2018 3:04 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:not surprised it will be back to a TS. they jumped the gun down grading it.

It’s been a TS since this morning. Was likely a TW yesterday though.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2879
Age: 46
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:
Contact blp

Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#212 Postby blp » Mon Sep 24, 2018 3:04 pm

I guess nobody should be surprised. 40W has been hot this year. Beyrl, Issac, TD 11 and now Kirk taking advantage of this favorable zone. Every year you get a favorable spot in the basin.

Image
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 43
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#213 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 24, 2018 3:06 pm

Center is here. still booging west.

Image
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#214 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 24, 2018 3:07 pm

24/1745 UTC 9.9N 40.2W T2.0/2.0 KIRK
1 likes   
Top
moja.ram

Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#215 Postby moja.ram » Mon Sep 24, 2018 3:20 pm

AHHH this Kirk guy was suppose to be dead and now he's looks like he's heading to DR. :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23074
Age: 68
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#216 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 24, 2018 4:10 pm

Tropical waves can produce tropical storm-force winds, but that doesn't make it technically a tropical storm. Had a very good ASCAT hit this morning that indicated a wave axis. That said, it may maintain its current state of organization until it nears the Caribbean. Shear near the eastern Caribbean, though, has been pretty high all season. Isaac couldn't survive it. Most likely just some rain for the islands. Canadian model taking it into the Gulf as a TS is as nuts as NAVGEM, which has it at hurricane strength near the NE Caribbean a week from today. Neither model can be trusted with tropical cyclones. Let's see what Kirk looks like once it passes west of 50W.

Note that whatever is left of Kirk when it reaches the Caribbean would most likely track well south of Puerto Rico and the DR.
3 likes   
Top
floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#217 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Sep 24, 2018 4:14 pm

nhc not brought KIRK back from dead
1 likes   
Top
Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10173
Age: 39
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#218 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 24, 2018 4:21 pm

Based on the clear westerly low level inflow it is clearly closed.

Maybe going to wait until 11pm to look for consistency.
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5751
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#219 Postby chaser1 » Mon Sep 24, 2018 4:21 pm

floridasun78 wrote:nhc not brought KIRK back from dead


:1:

"Kirk to Enterprise, maintain cloaked as well as radio silence". Upon approach to the Lesser Antilles, only set phasers to stun. I don't want anybody harmed. Kirk out"
4 likes   
Andy D

(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 43
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#220 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 24, 2018 4:26 pm

That convection that just developed has -80 ish degree tops.. very high up.. rarely see that.

and its right over the center

Image
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 41 guests