ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#201 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:06 pm



Nope...
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#202 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:07 pm

Certainly has westerly inflow on the southern side so within my opinion it is clearly closed.

Could become a cyclone again by 11pm. We'll see.
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#203 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:26 pm

Latest Microwave matches well with the earlier visible circ and now with the convection building around it. no doubt it's closed and better organized than yesterday.
Image
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#204 Postby abajan » Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:36 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Latest Microwave matches well with the earlier visible circ and now with the convection building around it. do doubt it's closed and better organized than yesterday.
https://image.ibb.co/hXqwnU/20180924_17 ... _053pc.jpg

You meant "No doubt". Right?
Last edited by abajan on Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#205 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:36 pm

abajan wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Latest Microwave matches well with the earlier visible circ and now with the convection building around it. do doubt it's closed and better organized than yesterday.
https://image.ibb.co/hXqwnU/20180924_17 ... _053pc.jpg

You meant "no doubt". Right?


haha yeah.. no doubt. oops
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#206 Postby Nimbus » Mon Sep 24, 2018 2:16 pm

Monday 12Z runs don't do much with Kirk but the GEM/CMC tracks it north of Jamaica into the gulf as a closed circulation. Circulation is getting quite large although I suspect the surface pressure profile is shallow enough that we won't see rapid intensification.
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#207 Postby NotSparta » Mon Sep 24, 2018 2:16 pm

AL, 12, 2018092418, , BEST, 0, 101N, 405W, 35, 1007, TS


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Last edited by NotSparta on Mon Sep 24, 2018 2:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#208 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 24, 2018 2:17 pm

There’s definitely some spin, but it’s very much an open wave at the moment. It has the impression that the spin is mid-level.


EDIT: Welp, looks like it’s back to life.
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#209 Postby AnnularCane » Mon Sep 24, 2018 2:23 pm

I've been fooled once before, I will wait and see what the NHC website says this time! :lol:
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#210 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 24, 2018 2:37 pm

not surprised it will be back to a TS. they jumped the gun down grading it.
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#211 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Sep 24, 2018 3:04 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:not surprised it will be back to a TS. they jumped the gun down grading it.

It’s been a TS since this morning. Was likely a TW yesterday though.
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#212 Postby blp » Mon Sep 24, 2018 3:04 pm

I guess nobody should be surprised. 40W has been hot this year. Beyrl, Issac, TD 11 and now Kirk taking advantage of this favorable zone. Every year you get a favorable spot in the basin.

Image
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#213 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 24, 2018 3:06 pm

Center is here. still booging west.

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Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#214 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 24, 2018 3:07 pm

24/1745 UTC 9.9N 40.2W T2.0/2.0 KIRK
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#215 Postby moja.ram » Mon Sep 24, 2018 3:20 pm

AHHH this Kirk guy was suppose to be dead and now he's looks like he's heading to DR. :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr:
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#216 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 24, 2018 4:10 pm

Tropical waves can produce tropical storm-force winds, but that doesn't make it technically a tropical storm. Had a very good ASCAT hit this morning that indicated a wave axis. That said, it may maintain its current state of organization until it nears the Caribbean. Shear near the eastern Caribbean, though, has been pretty high all season. Isaac couldn't survive it. Most likely just some rain for the islands. Canadian model taking it into the Gulf as a TS is as nuts as NAVGEM, which has it at hurricane strength near the NE Caribbean a week from today. Neither model can be trusted with tropical cyclones. Let's see what Kirk looks like once it passes west of 50W.

Note that whatever is left of Kirk when it reaches the Caribbean would most likely track well south of Puerto Rico and the DR.
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#217 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Sep 24, 2018 4:14 pm

nhc not brought KIRK back from dead
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#218 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 24, 2018 4:21 pm

Based on the clear westerly low level inflow it is clearly closed.

Maybe going to wait until 11pm to look for consistency.
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#219 Postby chaser1 » Mon Sep 24, 2018 4:21 pm

floridasun78 wrote:nhc not brought KIRK back from dead


:1:

"Kirk to Enterprise, maintain cloaked as well as radio silence". Upon approach to the Lesser Antilles, only set phasers to stun. I don't want anybody harmed. Kirk out"
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

#220 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 24, 2018 4:26 pm

That convection that just developed has -80 ish degree tops.. very high up.. rarely see that.

and its right over the center

Image
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