ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[PavelGaborik10]

The northern GOM doesn't get too many major hits where a storm intensifies until landfall.

Unless something changes drastically soon, this way be one of those very rare occurrences. At the very least, it's not looking like it'll have much time to weaken before landfall at this rate.

[txwatcher91]

Alright Storm2K, Michael just made a Fist. Huge tower wrapping fully around the eye wall. This is a precursor to deepening. It happened an hour before recon. Hold on to your seats to Cat 4....this is very bad

After the Fist, you always get a nice ring of intense convection. It will intensify until an EWRC. If it doesn't have one, then we are in trouble...

Always on point... agreed nothing to stop this except either land or an EWRC.

[HeeBGBz]

Yup its about to cross 86W again soon to the east. Its been inching back that way. It will be interesting how sharp the turn is.

Last hour or so sure has teased a couple east of north wobbles. Question is, when are wobbles no longer wobbles? Here's food for thought.... official NHC forecast position for 0600Z later tonight (well, okay technically early tomm. a.m.) is 27.6 and 86.6. Tomm. afternoon at 1800Z it is 29.7 and 85.9. All I know is that i'm keeping one eye on whether Michael crosses that 86 W line before midnight. That's aside from any chance he may be south of it's early a.m. forecast point as well. Both however certainly wouldn't bode well for those east of Apalach. given the even greater extreme storm surge that could pile up further east.

Thats exactly the same observations Im making. I feel like its going to head a bit further east. We will see if the nhc is still calling it due N.

This storm is worrying me. I don't see the storm doing what the models are saying it is going to do. It gets closer and closer. Someone on tv just said it was supposed to continue north for 12 more hours. If that's the forecast, it will be in our front yard. No one is at all prepared here, in case Michael is still not playing by the rules. Forgive me, if I'm just having Katrina paranoia.

[HurricaneIrma]

Flagged or considered???

Unflagged.

Holy smokes. THAT is unreal and it looks like the pressure wants to drop more.

This will make a run for cat.5

[NDG]

Fix: 26.45N & 86.38W

230600 2627N 08623W 7520 02101 9541 +190 +156 205025 028 030 000 00

Still a good western component to its northern movenent.

It actually took a NNE jog after the previous recon fix.

[bob rulz]

Not sure conditions are quite good enough for cat 5. My educated guess is this will peak around 125kts. Then again it's really defied expectation in every way so far, so who knows? Stranger things have happened.

[CrazyC83]

Based on the recent data, I'd bump it up to 110 kt.

[PavelGaborik10]

Alright Storm2K, Michael just made a Fist. Huge tower wrapping fully around the eye wall. This is a precursor to deepening. It happened an hour before recon. Hold on to your seats to Cat 4....this is very bad

After the Fist, you always get a nice ring of intense convection. It will intensify until an EWRC. If it doesn't have one, then we are in trouble...

Always on point... agreed nothing to stop this except either land or an EWRC.

Considering the eyewall just managed to close relatively recently, I wouldn't bank on an EWRC. Landfall is due tomorrow.

[RL3AO]

I think it has a good chance at 130 kts by morning. It's really taking off on satellite.

[Sciencerocks]

If those levels prove true, he could possibly tickle a cat 5 tonight. That being said, the rampant IR leads me to thoughts of a EWRC as well

The storm is at least 12-18 hours away from an ewrc. This thing will become a solid cat4 first.

[supercane4867]

18z HWRF and HMON are both locked on a CAT4 landfall near 930mb

[hurricaneCW]

The N to NNE component upon landfall will help it from weakening much if at all. Models are hell bent on keeping him a major all the way through.

The cool shelf waters will be the only detriment but he should be moving at a good pace (15+ mph) so even that could have minimal effects.

[StruThiO]

2018OCT09 230038 6.0 938.5 115.0 6.0 6.9 6.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF -23.59 -75.33 EYE/P -99 IR 47.2 26.53 86.44 ARCHER GOES16 33.5

[wx98]

One name I haven’t seen mentioned is Camille. I know Camille was much stronger and further west, but this certainly draws similarities to Camille.

[Buck]

Whether he makes Cat 5 or not (and I think he will get close if not achieve it), the impact won’t be much different. This is a monster and if you are still in the path, get out. It’s not too late. Head W or NW (or I guess it makes sense for some to head down the peninsula).

[PavelGaborik10]

18z HWRF and HMON are both locked on a CAT4 landfall near 930mb

The HWRF has done a great job with the intensity of Michael for a couple of days now. I remember a couple days ago when it had Michael as a 945 MB Cat 4 in the Gulf most scoffed at the idea.

[KWT]

I think it has a good chance at 130 kts by morning. It's really taking off on satellite.

Yeah plenty of time for this yo get to those levels, and the presentation is just getting betrer.

Remember Opal got to 916mbs, that sort of level is not impossible.

[drezee]

I think it has a good chance at 130 kts by morning. It's really taking off on satellite.

I honestly agree...I know people who did not evacuate SE of PCB. I just called them and asked them evacuate. They wont leave. Prayed 4 them....

[lrak]

I think it has a good chance at 130 kts by morning. It's really taking off on satellite.

Wow...been extremely busy at work and looked at the last visible satellite and I've never seen that before.

Be safe....

[PavelGaborik10]

One name I haven’t seen mentioned is Camille. I know Camille was much stronger and further west, but this certainly draws similarities to Camille.

How do they compare in regards to size? I know Camille was quite small.