ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

Through 72 hours she’s a little NE of the 00z. Perhaps the loss of latitude has come to a halt.

[SouthFLTropics]

And there’s that little thumb ridge again at hour 84 extending down into the Bahamas.

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS hours 72-96:

[FLeastcoast]

Through 72 hours she’s a little NE of the 00z. Perhaps the loss of latitude has come to a halt.

Could you please explain what that might mean, in reference to where the storm might be heading? Thanks!

[SouthFLTropics]

Decent shift NE at 108 hours. Let’s hope this a trend of more north and OTS. I doubt it, but we can hope.

[SouthFLTropics]

Through 72 hours she’s a little NE of the 00z. Perhaps the loss of latitude has come to a halt.

Could you please explain what that might mean, in reference to where the storm might be heading? Thanks!

It means that this one particular run of this model so far looks better for the extreme SE US. No one is out of the woods yet, but it’s encouraging to see a model finally shift NE instead of SW.

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS hours 96-120:

[FLeastcoast]

Through 72 hours she’s a little NE of the 00z. Perhaps the loss of latitude has come to a halt.

Could you please explain what that might mean, in reference to where the storm might be heading? Thanks!

It means that this one particular run of this model so far looks better for the extreme SE US. No one is out of the woods yet, but it’s encouraging to see a model finally shift NE instead of SW.

Thank you for explaining it.

[SouthFLTropics]

If that trough in the Rockies would dig eastward we may get an OTS solution on this run. That would be encouraging for sure.

[SouthFLTropics]

Delmarva and New England, you’re not off the hook yet. Here she comes on the 06z GFS.

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS hours 120-144:

[Airboy]

Recurving before landfall this time?

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like we may get a stall or loop just offshore of Chesapeake Bay. I’d like to think that this run is encouraging and possibly a trend of eventually turning Flo OTS. Unfortunately the trough over the Rockies isn’t advancing at all and I know the GFS quirk about breaking down ridges too soon.

[seahawkjd]

Looks like we may get a stall or loop just offshore of Chesapeake Bay. I’d like to think that this run is encouraging and possibly a trend of eventually turning Flo OTS. Unfortunately the trough over the Rockies isn’t advancing at all and I know the GFS quirk about breaking down ridges too soon.

Seems to be looping..... while getting stronger.....

[northjaxpro]

If that trough in the Rockies would dig eastward we may get an OTS solution on this run. That would be encouraging for sure.

The big question is how much farther east and digging the Pacific NW trough will progress? Mofels are showing in response to the Western U.S. trough, ridging will only get more re-established and stay anchored across the NW Atlantic and the Northeast U.S. This would in all likelihood keep the door shut on any OTS scenarios.

[otowntiger]

06z GFS hours 120-144:
]

That run could be good news for folks south of NC, but not so great for the mid Atlantic states again. The bad news though, in my opinion is that is a pretty wide swing back to the right and that could mean the wide windshield wipering is not done. In other words, could it swing just as widely back south and west?

[SouthFLTropics]

If this run of the GFS were to pan out the beach erosion and surf along the East Coast will be massive.

[seahawkjd]

GFS has this moving south on Sunday off the NC / SC coast at 905 mb.

[SouthFLTropics]

06z GFS hours 120-144:
]

That run definitely good news for folks south of NC, but not so great for the mid Atlantic states again. The bad news though, in my opinion is that is a pretty wide swing back to the right and that could mean the wide windshield wipering is not done. In other words, could it swing just as widely back south and west?

Yes, everyone is still in play...these models will wipe back and forth. Hopefully additional data into the models later will assist.

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS what are you doing??? There’s just nothing coming along to sweep it out to sea. This pattern with no troughs is certainly weird. This is like a car wreck...you want to not look but you just can’t help yourself.