ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

130KT FL level. THIS IS CAT4

[cycloneye]

From NOAA Plane.Below 950 mbs.

948.5

[wx98]

Latest pass:
948.5 mb extrapolated
130kt FL
110kt SFMR

Without a doubt a Cat 4 now

[PavelGaborik10]

Shear and perhaps a bit of dry air is helping to keep it at bay for now. The NHC discussion did mention the eye cleared out for a short time (about one hour from what I did see) before it became cloud-covered again, so hoping it will not strengthen any further.

We have to remember intensity forecasting is still the forecaster's weak spot - both up and down in intensity...

Frank

This storm is looking more and more impressive with each frame. Overshooting tops over the eye are not a sign of weakening in this case, this storm is exploding.

EDIT : Recon confirms this storm is intensifying as rapid as ever. Unreal.

[Ntxw]

Scary sight given location. Eye is improving. Those asked to leave I hope have done so.

[StormPyrate]

130KT FL level. THIS IS CAT4

Im new so easily confused how do you have a cat 4 with an open eye? is that even possible or is it just different indicators not lining up

[Abdullah]

Oof. Those are big numbers.

[SunnyThoughts]

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?p ... =undefined

[supercane4867]

LG eye now on Dvorak. Let's get some OW pixels going then it will be T6.5

[Kazmit]

Shear and perhaps a bit of dry air is helping to keep it at bay for now. The NHC discussion did mention the eye cleared out for a short time (about one hour from what I did see) before it became cloud-covered again, so hoping it will not strengthen any further.

We have to remember intensity forecasting is still the forecaster's weak spot - both up and down in intensity...

Frank

It's not at bay right now, the overall trend is that it's strengthening pretty quickly.

[EquusStorm]

Ugh, just a horrible feeling all around with this going to surely come ashore at high intensity. Many 2005/Patricia/last-September flashbacks; didn't expect the US to be so hard hit this year. It's been a jaw dropping year for pretty much the whole NHem.

[Abdullah]

Could we get a special advisory?

Thanks in Advance

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This is quickly turning into the worst possible scenario for the FL Panhandle. This could easily be 155mph at peak considering the rapid increase in organization.

[Frank2]

Is the 130 Kt at flight level measured at 1,500 or 10,000' - that would make a big difference...

[CrazyC83]

Latest pass:
948.5 mb extrapolated
130kt FL
110kt SFMR

Without a doubt a Cat 4 now

Based on that data, at least 110 kt but with the sparse range of SFMR readings, I would vouch for 115 kt.

[CrazyC83]

Could we get a special advisory?

Thanks in Advance

Too close to the scheduled advisory. They might issue a Tropical Cyclone Update though.

[Extratropical94]

Is the 130 Kt at flight level measured at 1,500 or 10,000' - that would make a big difference...

This particular reading was taken at ~7800 ft.

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/Jeff_Piotrowski/status/1049818085362937857

[craptacular]

Is the 130 Kt at flight level measured at 1,500 or 10,000' - that would make a big difference...

They were at 7779'.

[Condor]