ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[sittingduck]

What is preventing the band/blobs of rain that is running up the east coast from wrapping around? Dry air? Shear? Almost looks like it is going to totally disconnect and head ne

[sittingduck]

What is preventing the band/blobs of rain that is running up the east coast from wrapping around? Dry air? Shear? Almost looks like it is going to totally disconnect and head ne

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271621
AF302 0401A ALBERTO HDOB 43 20180527
161200 2617N 08555W 8432 01526 0067 +141 +135 281012 012 015 001 00
161230 2618N 08554W 8428 01531 0066 +142 +136 279011 012 016 000 00
161300 2619N 08553W 8428 01528 0066 +143 +127 286011 011 016 000 00
161330 2620N 08552W 8429 01525 0066 +143 +128 282011 012 017 000 00
161400 2621N 08550W 8429 01526 0066 +142 +127 282012 012 014 001 00
161430 2623N 08549W 8429 01527 0067 +145 +127 282013 013 016 000 00
161500 2624N 08548W 8429 01527 0066 +140 +130 288013 014 015 001 00
161530 2625N 08546W 8429 01527 0065 +140 +130 294014 015 017 000 00
161600 2626N 08545W 8429 01527 0066 +140 +128 294015 015 018 000 00
161630 2627N 08544W 8429 01526 0065 +140 +127 292015 015 019 001 00
161700 2628N 08543W 8429 01525 0064 +141 +126 287015 015 019 001 00
161730 2630N 08541W 8429 01526 0064 +145 +125 287016 016 018 002 00
161800 2631N 08540W 8428 01526 0061 +145 +126 290016 017 020 002 00
161830 2632N 08539W 8426 01525 0059 +145 +124 288017 017 022 002 00
161900 2633N 08537W 8428 01524 0058 +145 +128 289017 017 020 002 00
161930 2634N 08536W 8433 01517 0056 +147 +137 292019 020 021 003 00
162000 2635N 08535W 8425 01525 0059 +142 +134 279017 019 023 004 00
162030 2637N 08534W 8427 01522 0055 +145 +134 279017 019 023 004 00
162100 2638N 08532W 8428 01521 0056 +144 +134 283019 020 021 005 00
162130 2639N 08531W 8429 01519 0055 +143 +133 291020 020 023 005 00
$$
;

[p1nheadlarry]

Yes this might be one of lower rainfall total tropical cyclones due to all the dry air wrapping into the circulation. Perhaps daytime heating over the peninsula will fire up more storms this afternoon.

For us on the West coast though Ronjon our total rainfall from since about May 13 is probably off the charts. I still dont think our water temp has hit 80. I am ready for summer!

According to buoy readings this morning. Water temp around Panama City is 81 to 82 degrees.

Was there last week, I got in the water and didn't regret it!

[p1nheadlarry]

The constant shifting track as seen by the archive loop below, nothing but east shifts since the get-go:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/A ... _with_line

I should have stuck with my first advisory that I issued around 3pm Tuesday, which had Alberto making landfall just west of the "hump" in the FL Panhandle (just east of Panama City). That's where the early GFS ensembles took it.

As a Gulf County dweller that would be Port St Joe/Cape San Blas

[Aric Dunn]

With the convection off to the west side.. expect this to do a pretty sizable cyclonic loop as it wraps up and deepens over the next 24hrs.. the models for some reason were depicting this cyclonic loop the last few days but have since stopped. but because of the current placement of the convection the center should begin to move wnw ish..

[TAD]

Is it usual for sub-tropical systems to be named? In the pre-satellite era would this system have been named?

[p1nheadlarry]

That's the 3rd big win for the UKMET in the last 20 months...I wonder what has gone into that model to make it more accurate?

Update in 2016 with higher resolution wasn't it? Not sure about the physics/eqns themselves though

[stormhunter7]

looks like the mid-up level center has become decoupled from surface center. It appears the storms are drifting off to the wsw. What will happen to low center?

[toad strangler]

Is it usual for sub-tropical systems to be named? In the pre-satellite era would this system have been named?

In the pre satellite era this would be a Cat 1

[ava_ati]

looks like the mid-up level center has become decoupled from surface center. It appears the storms are drifting off to the wsw. What will happen to low center?

Think that just gives more credence to what Aric was saying about the COC doing a bit of a loop and trying to stay under that convection just like it did when all of the convection was on the east side, no meteorologist but I bet we see a pretty good wobble to the W if not the SW

[Aric Dunn]

Here is a quick look at the mechanism for this current structure and why this will likely bend back to the west for some time before a north motion.
if you look here in this long mid level WV loop you will see a mid level vort/ low swing south while alberto move rapidly north last night. Now that mid level low is south of alberto and the two are essentially rotating around each other. we should really see a more w to wnw motion today and tonight until that mid level feature weakens... at which time the shear environment will likely become much better for intensification.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

[Big Easy Breeze]

Last three recon fixes are close to 345 degree trajectory. The turn has begun...

I'm measuring about 341 degrees at 14 kts over the past 2.5 hrs. Dry air is wrapping around the center, which will make it difficult for Alberto to strengthen.

That heading would be W-NW. It would project to a landfall somewhere closer to Pcola. That would essentially be the landfall predicted when Alberto was officially named IIRC.

Would it be not out of the question, where the direction would change to WNW, on the next advisory and a subsequent landfall forecast update, near Pcola? Or is it just a cyclonic loop?

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271631
AF302 0401A ALBERTO HDOB 44 20180527
162200 2640N 08530W 8429 01517 0055 +141 +129 297020 020 025 005 00
162230 2641N 08528W 8427 01519 0053 +141 +130 293023 026 025 007 00
162300 2643N 08527W 8432 01513 0053 +140 +128 295026 027 025 007 00
162330 2644N 08526W 8427 01514 0050 +142 +124 290026 027 024 009 00
162400 2645N 08524W 8430 01511 0046 +148 +118 282025 027 023 011 00
162430 2646N 08523W 8428 01512 0043 +150 +114 280026 027 027 009 00
162500 2647N 08522W 8430 01508 0045 +146 +117 287029 031 027 009 00
162530 2649N 08520W 8429 01507 0046 +139 +134 292030 031 030 010 00
162600 2650N 08519W 8429 01508 0045 +138 +137 290030 031 030 009 00
162630 2651N 08518W 8429 01504 0041 +142 +125 285032 033 030 008 00
162700 2652N 08516W 8428 01504 0039 +144 +122 283032 033 031 007 00
162730 2653N 08515W 8430 01501 0039 +137 +129 282034 034 031 007 00
162800 2655N 08514W 8425 01502 0036 +141 //// 279036 038 033 007 01
162830 2656N 08512W 8424 01501 0036 +145 +145 280039 040 034 009 00
162900 2657N 08511W 8425 01495 0035 +146 +146 285040 040 034 009 00
162930 2658N 08509W 8432 01488 0029 +147 +147 292043 046 034 011 00
163000 2659N 08508W 8426 01491 0028 +148 +148 288035 040 034 011 00
163030 2701N 08507W 8428 01486 0029 +141 +141 287031 035 034 010 00
163100 2702N 08505W 8425 01486 0024 +146 +146 293027 029 035 011 00
163130 2703N 08504W 8434 01476 0019 +149 +149 287021 030 038 008 00
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

Also right now it is over pretty cool ssts in the eastern gulf. once it gets a little farther west it will hit much warmers ssts which will help.

[ava_ati]

Here is a quick look at the mechanism for this current structure and why this will likely bend back to the west for some time before a north motion.
if you look here in this long mid level WV loop you will see a mid level vort/ low swing south while alberto move rapidly north last night. Now that mid level low is south of alberto and the two are essentially rotating around each other. we should really see a more w to wnw motion today and tonight until that mid level feature weakens... at which time the shear environment will likely become much better for intensification.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

Since the models already underestimated how far it would move east overnight last night, do you think the models are underestimating how far west it will go here?

[psyclone]

I think those of us on the west coast of florida are going to see some sun this afternoon...and I must say I'm quite excited about the prospects.

[caneman]

Last three recon fixes are close to 345 degree trajectory. The turn has begun...

I'm measuring about 341 degrees at 14 kts over the past 2.5 hrs. Dry air is wrapping around the center, which will make it difficult for Alberto to strengthen.

That heading would be W-NW. It would project to a landfall somewhere closer to Pcola. That would essentially be the landfall predicted when Alberto was officially named IIRC.

Landfall would be but the Euro had it as far west as Louisiana. Further, the intermediate track was way far off. Just a rainmaker anyhow. Its welcome to go bye bye now.

[caneman]

I think those of us on the west coast of florida are going to see some sun this afternoon...and I must say I'm quite excited about the prospects.

Hoping so. Done with this last 2 weeks of rain.

[Emmett_Brown]

Here is a quick look at the mechanism for this current structure and why this will likely bend back to the west for some time before a north motion.
if you look here in this long mid level WV loop you will see a mid level vort/ low swing south while alberto move rapidly north last night. Now that mid level low is south of alberto and the two are essentially rotating around each other. we should really see a more w to wnw motion today and tonight until that mid level feature weakens... at which time the shear environment will likely become much better for intensification.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

Any chance of Alberto doing a cyclonic loop as he interacts with the upper low? Perhaps just a small loop, which might effectively just average out to a slow down before heading N?