ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[SFLcane]

Florence is still a moderate TS storm and will likely continue loosing a bit of latitude shear remains another 24-36 hrs

[Bocadude85]

FLorence is north of all but 3 UK members. some of them off by a degree.

https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/


zoom in to FLorence. Press UK ens (Mogreps). Florence 5am position is well north

UKMET also had a west bias with Gordon where it wanted to send him to Texas. I am hoping the GFS is picking up on a weakness that will allow this system to escape direct landfall in the US.

Yeah I think U.K. is too weak. A stronger storm sooner will drive poleward.

Perhaps you should look at the current steering currents for a stronger storm, I don’t see the UKMET ensembles off by almost a degree..the location of Florence which is still moving wsw seems to line up fairly well with the ensembles.

[toad strangler]

I'm not one to bang the prediction drum because it confuses a lot of casual observers (non wx junkies). BUT, I have been looking at Fran (NORTH), Hugo (MIDDLE), and 1898 Georgia (SOUTH) as analogs.

[robbielyn]

Florence is still a moderate TS storm and will likely continue loosing a bit of latitude shear remains another 24-36 hrs

Agreed. NW shear and 94L sending NW shear still of flo.

[GCANE]

This has "STALL" written all over it with a massive outflow channel.
Anti-cyclone over Savannah and PV Streamer may be the only thing taking this to a potential Cat 5.
If the Anti-Cyclone starts to pull into Flo and PV Streamer dissipates, we all know what that means.
Arguably, one of the most intense setups I have ever seen.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

FLorence is north of all but 3 UK members. some of them off by a degree.

https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/


zoom in to FLorence. Press UK ens (Mogreps). Florence 5am position is well north

UKMET also had a west bias with Gordon where it wanted to send him to Texas. I am hoping the GFS is picking up on a weakness that will allow this system to escape direct landfall in the US.

With the current steering currents, there's no poleward component put in place. Each storm is unique and that means your statement isn't always applicable in every situation. The steering is different this time.

[dukeblue219]

It does look like a Hugo redux but Hugo hit a little further up the coast from Charleston. I think Georgetown SC was ground zero. I.

Nope, the center of Hugo went directly over Isle of Palms and Sullivan's Island. It was just a few miles north of Charleston, which did catch part of the eye. Georgetown is a good bit farther north.

Peak damage was around the McClellanville area where they caught RF quadrant.

[wxman57]

Here's a plot of all the better models (removed the non-dynamic TAB & climo & NOGAPS). Purple lines are EC ensembles. Yellow are Canadian 00Z ensembles, Green are 06Z GFS ensembles. Reddish line east of Hatteras is GFS ensembles mean. Purplish line into the SC/NC border is the consensus model TVCN. Looks like Houston isn't out of the woods for a Florence landfall, as one EC member has it coming here.

[p1nheadlarry]

FLorence is north of all but 3 UK members. some of them off by a degree.

https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/


zoom in to FLorence. Press UK ens (Mogreps). Florence 5am position is well north

UKMET also had a west bias with Gordon where it wanted to send him to Texas. I am hoping the GFS is picking up on a weakness that will allow this system to escape direct landfall in the US.

With the current steering currents, there's no poleward component put in place. Each storm is unique and that means your statement isn't always applicable in every situation. The steering is different this time.

Beta drift may cause the storm to wobble (Stair step) but ultimately the steering, especially with a strengthening ridge, will keep tabs on it. Not saying south is more likely than north however.

[tpinnola]

The Euro, along with other major models, have been trending south and west over the last couple days. I have two main problems. One, these models are most likely keeping Flo at a CAT 2 for landfall. Two, most of these models show a ridge to the north that would be almost record setting. So it is definitely hard to argue in terms of what the model is seeing and doing (IE. Strong ridge, weaker storm --> west or southwest movement responding to lower steering elements in the atmosphere). Taking a look at the below shows quite a few models taking this up to a CAT 4 very quickly. This would push the Flo north as she would most likely respond upper element steering. At this point a stall makes sense. Just my thoughts.....

[Hurricaneman]

The recon is sampling to give more data to the models, the 12z models won’t have this but the 18z will have some and 0z will have all the new data including balloon releases

[drewschmaltz]

This has "STALL" written all over it with a massive outflow channel.
Anti-cyclone over Savannah and PV Streamer may be the only thing taking this to a potential Cat 5.
If the Anti-Cyclone starts to pull into Flo and PV Streamer dissipates, we all know what that means.
Arguably, one of the most intense setups I have ever seen

It just so happens she gets trapped right on top of the warmest waters off the east coast. I think thats 30c right under her.

[floridasun78]

still moving west and plane on it way report by twc

[edu2703]

[stormchazer]

Really! The FV3-GFS 06z run would pretty much destroy the Outer Banks. Looks like impossible though.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 90806&fh=0

Euro though is more reliable. Far less effects here if Euro is true. Plus it has Flo headed inland and not up coast. Also a plus for us.

No offense to South Carolina but Euro looks like Hugo 2.

It does look like a Hugo redux but Hugo hit a little further up the coast from Charleston. I think Georgetown SC was ground zero. If Florence comes in a little south of Charleston it would be much worse here than Hugo. The City of Charleston has gone to Opcon 4 to get things prepared in case we have to deal with the storm directly here. We still have 5 days and hopefully the track will change for us but then again that would be bad news for someone else and I certainly dont wish that on anyone.Be safe out there my friends.

Landfall actually Sullivan’s Island but areas up coast to Georgetown recieved maximum surge and wind. There was 6-8 feet of water on peninsular Charleston so A hit south would be even more devastating.

[ronjon]

From NHC 11 am disc:

After 36 hours,
the most notable change in the models was a northeastward shift in
the 06Z GFS. However, that run appears to be an outlier from the
rest of the dynamical models, and its trend opposes the slight
westward shift noted in the HCCA and FSSE aids. The updated NHC
track forecast is therefore very close to or slightly west of the
previous forecast on days 4 and 5. The exact path of Florence as it
approaches the southeastern U.S. coastline will depend heavily on
the position and strength of the blocking high pressure that is
expected to develop north of Bermuda and extend westward over the
eastern U.S., and so far there has not been much more clarity on
those important details.

[Hurricaneman]

From NHC 11 am disc:

After 36 hours,
the most notable change in the models was a northeastward shift in
the 06Z GFS. However, that run appears to be an outlier from the
rest of the dynamical models, and its trend opposes the slight
westward shift noted in the HCCA and FSSE aids. The updated NHC
track forecast is therefore very close to or slightly west of the
previous forecast on days 4 and 5. The exact path of Florence as it
approaches the southeastern U.S. coastline will depend heavily on
the position and strength of the blocking high pressure that is
expected to develop north of Bermuda and extend westward over the
eastern U.S., and so far there has not been much more clarity on
those important details.

It’s rare for the NHC to discount any models but it looks like they discounted the GFS

[drewschmaltz]

HWRF



Central Florida through the Carolina's should be spending the weekend getting everything in line.

That eye would be about 70 miles wide.

[BobHarlem]

HWRF

Central Florida through the Carolina's should be spending the weekend getting everything in line.

That eye would be about 70 miles wide.

That's a storm surge generating machine.

[floridasun78]

looking this do look move bit more to south near 24 line? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir