ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[sittingduck]

[quote="wxman57"]Here's a plot of all the better models (removed the non-dynamic TAB & climo & NOGAPS). Purple lines are EC ensembles. Yellow are Canadian 00Z ensembles, Green are 06Z GFS ensembles. Reddish line east of Hatteras is GFS ensembles mean. Purplish line into the SC/NC border is the consensus model TVCN. Looks like Houston isn't out of the woods for a Florence landfall, as one EC member has it coming here.

Thank you for this. What is the dark blue line?

[tarheelprogrammer]

Here's a plot of all the better models (removed the non-dynamic TAB & climo & NOGAPS). Purple lines are EC ensembles. Yellow are Canadian 00Z ensembles, Green are 06Z GFS ensembles. Reddish line east of Hatteras is GFS ensembles mean. Purplish line into the SC/NC border is the consensus model TVCN. Looks like Houston isn't out of the woods for a Florence landfall, as one EC member has it coming here.

Thank you for this. What is the dark blue line?

UKMET

[artist]

[Ken711]

From NHC 11 am disc:

After 36 hours,
the most notable change in the models was a northeastward shift in
the 06Z GFS. However, that run appears to be an outlier from the
rest of the dynamical models, and its trend opposes the slight
westward shift noted in the HCCA and FSSE aids. The updated NHC
track forecast is therefore very close to or slightly west of the
previous forecast on days 4 and 5. The exact path of Florence as it
approaches the southeastern U.S. coastline will depend heavily on
the position and strength of the blocking high pressure that is
expected to develop north of Bermuda and extend westward over the
eastern U.S., and so far there has not been much more clarity on
those important details.

It’s rare for the NHC to discount any models but it looks like they discounted the GFS

I've never seen that. I was hoping that the 06Z run may have been a trend north and east that the other models would pick up on.

[SunnyThoughts]

Sitting here considering a 70 mile wide eye...unimaginable. Pensacola, Fla is about 60 miles from Mobile, Ala. Just trying to imagine how 2 cities that far apart could fit inside an eye of a hurricane at the same time. Im sure many of you up in SC and NC are considering that as well, just not as familiar with cities there myself other than Charleston and myrtle beach maybe?

[Blown Away]

12z GFS.. SW of 06z at 48 hrs...

[tolakram]

12Z so far

[MrJames]

FWIW, the 12Z discount model is running. Perhaps slightly S if that at 48hrs.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Ridging a little stronger through Hr 60, storm slightly south. Quicker intensification from D1-D2 as well, reflective of realtime trends.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS... S of 06z at 66 hrs... Ridging stronger...

[tolakram]

Trend. Remember, on this normalized 500mb chart, the colors represent anomalies, not pressures, and should be ignored. Only the 500mb lines count.

[Blown Away]

Up to 78 hrs... Thumb appears again...

[floridasun78]

this from miami weather office TC FLORENCE IMPACTS: Quite a bit early to discuss impacts from TC Florence as the track is uncertain at this time. However if the current track holds or shifts southward, swell will begin to impact the east coast of Florida beginning late Tuesday and especially Wednesday into next weekend. Expect a high risk of rip

[jlauderdal]

Up to 78 hrs... Thumb appears again...

The good old thumb ridge in play

[tarheelprogrammer]

Hour 90-96, was that a NNW movement?

[Blown Away]

Hour 90-96, was that a NNW movement?

12z GFS... 96 hrs... Slightly SE of 06z... Moving WNW

[storm4u]

Exact same spot at hr 102

[Ken711]

Hour 90-96, was that a NNW movement?

12z GFS... 96 hrs... Slightly SE of 06z... Moving WNW

Looks like it's headed to the OBX again.

[Blown Away]

Exact the same spot at hr 102

May miss E again...

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS is bound and determined to turn this North.