ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[Evil Jeremy]

GFS is slightly East at 120hrs.

Anyone have the 12Z UKMet coordinates?

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.3N 54.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.09.2018 0 24.3N 54.0W 992 51
0000UTC 09.09.2018 12 24.2N 54.9W 993 44
1200UTC 09.09.2018 24 24.2N 55.8W 991 54
0000UTC 10.09.2018 36 24.5N 57.2W 987 55
1200UTC 10.09.2018 48 24.7N 59.3W 979 66
0000UTC 11.09.2018 60 25.2N 61.5W 975 67
1200UTC 11.09.2018 72 26.1N 64.7W 973 66
0000UTC 12.09.2018 84 27.3N 68.3W 972 69
1200UTC 12.09.2018 96 28.3N 71.5W 965 77
0000UTC 13.09.2018 108 29.9N 74.1W 941 90
1200UTC 13.09.2018 120 31.6N 76.2W 936 89
0000UTC 14.09.2018 132 32.7N 77.8W 936 90
1200UTC 14.09.2018 144 33.5N 78.7W 940 85

Last point is Myrtle Beach, SC

[Ken711]

May miss E again...

I'm betting the other models will start to pick up on a north and east trend.

The NHC basically disregarded this solution in the 11 AM disco

If other models with the 12z start following the GFS there may be a trend that NHC would start to account for.

[hohnywx]

GFS looks to be stalled off the OBX and undergoing rapid strengthening between 120-144 hours.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I fully expect the models to trend NE from here on out. It has happened with every SE threat since the mid 2000s. I was wondering earlier why the models were not breaking the ridge down sooner. I expect to see the UKMET and ECMWF go north the next few runs.

[Blown Away]

GFS 12z... 144 hrs moving NNE offshore OBX...

[Ken711]

A GFS loop off of the OBX?

[hohnywx]

GFS 12z... 144 hrs moving NNE offshore OBX...

Not seeing the NNE movement...looks like it is drifting south acrually

[Blown Away]

12z GFS... Moving SSE off OBX from 156-162 hrs... Half loop so far...

[KWT]

Whilst the trend is a little better, let it be remembered it is running south still of most expectations.

Typically, models bias to far right (especially GFS and CMC) in a ridging situation, but to far left when ridging breaks down (GFS is usually better in such situations.)

[MrJames]

GFS is slightly East at 120hrs.

Anyone have the 12Z UKMet coordinates?

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.3N 54.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.09.2018 0 24.3N 54.0W 992 51
0000UTC 09.09.2018 12 24.2N 54.9W 993 44
1200UTC 09.09.2018 24 24.2N 55.8W 991 54
0000UTC 10.09.2018 36 24.5N 57.2W 987 55
1200UTC 10.09.2018 48 24.7N 59.3W 979 66
0000UTC 11.09.2018 60 25.2N 61.5W 975 67
1200UTC 11.09.2018 72 26.1N 64.7W 973 66
0000UTC 12.09.2018 84 27.3N 68.3W 972 69
1200UTC 12.09.2018 96 28.3N 71.5W 965 77
0000UTC 13.09.2018 108 29.9N 74.1W 941 90
1200UTC 13.09.2018 120 31.6N 76.2W 936 89
0000UTC 14.09.2018 132 32.7N 77.8W 936 90
1200UTC 14.09.2018 144 33.5N 78.7W 940 85

Last point is Myrtle Beach, SC

Shift North.

[supercane4867]

So GFS has a 905mb supercane stalling offshore and a Typhoon Tip heading toward Taiwan in one run. Here is your daily GFS tricks.

[Ken711]

GFS is slightly East at 120hrs.

Anyone have the 12Z UKMet coordinates?

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.3N 54.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.09.2018 0 24.3N 54.0W 992 51
0000UTC 09.09.2018 12 24.2N 54.9W 993 44
1200UTC 09.09.2018 24 24.2N 55.8W 991 54
0000UTC 10.09.2018 36 24.5N 57.2W 987 55
1200UTC 10.09.2018 48 24.7N 59.3W 979 66
0000UTC 11.09.2018 60 25.2N 61.5W 975 67
1200UTC 11.09.2018 72 26.1N 64.7W 973 66
0000UTC 12.09.2018 84 27.3N 68.3W 972 69
1200UTC 12.09.2018 96 28.3N 71.5W 965 77
0000UTC 13.09.2018 108 29.9N 74.1W 941 90
1200UTC 13.09.2018 120 31.6N 76.2W 936 89
0000UTC 14.09.2018 132 32.7N 77.8W 936 90
1200UTC 14.09.2018 144 33.5N 78.7W 940 85

Last point is Myrtle Beach, SC

Shift North.

From Savannah to Myrtle Beach, that's a big shift north.

[tarheelprogrammer]

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.3N 54.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.09.2018 0 24.3N 54.0W 992 51
0000UTC 09.09.2018 12 24.2N 54.9W 993 44
1200UTC 09.09.2018 24 24.2N 55.8W 991 54
0000UTC 10.09.2018 36 24.5N 57.2W 987 55
1200UTC 10.09.2018 48 24.7N 59.3W 979 66
0000UTC 11.09.2018 60 25.2N 61.5W 975 67
1200UTC 11.09.2018 72 26.1N 64.7W 973 66
0000UTC 12.09.2018 84 27.3N 68.3W 972 69
1200UTC 12.09.2018 96 28.3N 71.5W 965 77
0000UTC 13.09.2018 108 29.9N 74.1W 941 90
1200UTC 13.09.2018 120 31.6N 76.2W 936 89
0000UTC 14.09.2018 132 32.7N 77.8W 936 90
1200UTC 14.09.2018 144 33.5N 78.7W 940 85

Last point is Myrtle Beach, SC

Shift North.

From Savannah to Myrtle Beach, that's a big shift north.

One more shift like that and it is offshore. Tonight will be the night which tells me whether I will need to fill up my gas tank and get supplies or not tomorrow. If they shift again then I have seen this story here in the Carolinas for the past 20 years or so since Floyd. Major threats to this area seem to end up being OTS before it is all said and done. Tonight is important!

[hurricaneCW]

GFS is slightly East at 120hrs.

Anyone have the 12Z UKMet coordinates?

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.3N 54.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.09.2018 0 24.3N 54.0W 992 51
0000UTC 09.09.2018 12 24.2N 54.9W 993 44
1200UTC 09.09.2018 24 24.2N 55.8W 991 54
0000UTC 10.09.2018 36 24.5N 57.2W 987 55
1200UTC 10.09.2018 48 24.7N 59.3W 979 66
0000UTC 11.09.2018 60 25.2N 61.5W 975 67
1200UTC 11.09.2018 72 26.1N 64.7W 973 66
0000UTC 12.09.2018 84 27.3N 68.3W 972 69
1200UTC 12.09.2018 96 28.3N 71.5W 965 77
0000UTC 13.09.2018 108 29.9N 74.1W 941 90
1200UTC 13.09.2018 120 31.6N 76.2W 936 89
0000UTC 14.09.2018 132 32.7N 77.8W 936 90
1200UTC 14.09.2018 144 33.5N 78.7W 940 85

Last point is Myrtle Beach, SC

3 models are now north. A few more runs of that and we are safe.

Nobody is safe, models will show a stronger ridge as we get closer. I've seen it time and time again this summer. Carolinas are very likely to get hit.

[kevin mathis]

I'm betting the other models will start to pick up on a north and east trend.

Based on???
NHC just stated there is forecast to be a strong blocking high developing north of storm...Yet GFS plows through it. Every model forcing a SW shift every run and GFS starting a trend???

Perhaps the setup of the blocking high is farther east allowing for a steering around the periphery?

Perhaps...If you also notice the 06z and 12z look to have dropped development of TD9. Lots at play. I just don't like the overuse of the word trend. A trend isn't one cycle of runs. The trend is still west overall. 2 days ago this was re curving east of Bermuda according to the models we say are trending to salvation in one near miss run. The models flip back and forth every run. The trend is over. From re curve to threat. It looks like Florence will likely strike somewhere on the SE coast. Small fluctuations will continue to occur run to run...just like every storm we watch. Irma went from re curve east of Florida to ,east coast of Florida, then west Florida, back to East Coast etc...Splitting hairs

[KWT]

UKMO and CMC nearly identical landfall location. Starting to zero in somewhat on SC and NC it seems, but still enough time to watch trends.

[mlfreeman]

Do these runs include any recon data, or any data from the extra balloon launches?

[Ken711]

we can toss this run of the GFS>

Aric wondering though if the UKMET and CMC are trending north and east why so on the GFS, apart from that loop at the end.

[Aric Dunn]

Cant wait for the 00z models .. they should get at least some of the upper air data.

[Evil Jeremy]

3 models are now north. A few more runs of that and we are safe.

Nobody is safe, models will show a stronger ridge as we get closer. I've seen it time and time again this summer. Carolinas are very likely to get hit.

I am trying to be optimistic over here I am hoping the GFS is the start of NE trends and so far the 12z suite is trending toward it.

I wouldn't bank on the GFS. Now, I'm not anti-GFS in any sense as many people seem to be, but I recognize that it consistently underestimates northern ridging. I learned that with Ike and have seen it repeat over and over. Go out and get your supplies today.