ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[tolakram]

12Z UK plotted on this

[xtyphooncyclonex]

One more shift like that and it is offshore. Tonight will be the night which tells me whether I will need to fill up my gas tank and get supplies or not tomorrow. If they shift again then I have seen this story here in the Carolinas for the past 20 years or so since Floyd. Major threats to this area seem to end up being OTS before it is all said and done. Tonight is important!

It's still five days till landfall. I'd hate to burst your bubble, but I wouldn't put more weight on 2-3 shifts from a particular model on a forecast 5 days out than a trend of several runs and models from Bermuda/OTS to NC/SC.

I also wouldn't buy a sub-920 mb system over that area either.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z GFS has a 917mb hurricane drifting SW off the coast by 192 hours. I'm sorry, but I seriously don't buy it.

[Aric Dunn]

Nobody is safe, models will show a stronger ridge as we get closer. I've seen it time and time again this summer. Carolinas are very likely to get hit.

I am trying to be optimistic over here I am hoping the GFS is the start of NE trends and so far the 12z suite is trending toward it.

I wouldn't bank on the GFS. Now, I'm not anti-GFS in any sense as many people seem to be, but I recognize that it consistently underestimates northern ridging. I learned that with Ike and have seen it repeat over and over. Go out and get your supplies today.

I mean seriously.. the entire environment around it to the north and west will be under record-breaking ridging.. The background environment is entirely all ridging for a 1000 miles in every direction... it appears the models are having a hard time with and environment devoid of troughing...

[tolakram]

If you want to talk details about model runs then please do so, otherwise please refrain from posting. Thinking the GFS is trash is not a worthwhile discussion of a model run.

[tarheelprogrammer]

One more shift like that and it is offshore. Tonight will be the night which tells me whether I will need to fill up my gas tank and get supplies or not tomorrow. If they shift again then I have seen this story here in the Carolinas for the past 20 years or so since Floyd. Major threats to this area seem to end up being OTS before it is all said and done. Tonight is important!

It's still five days till landfall. I'd hate to burst your bubble, but I wouldn't put more weight on 2-3 shifts from a particular model on a forecast 5 days out than a trend of several runs and models from Bermuda/OTS to NC/SC.

I also wouldn't buy a sub-920 mb system over that area either.

It is not just one model that shifted though they all trended toward the GFS solution. Quite drastically. From Savannah to Myrtle Beach in one run is a big shift. The GFS is likely seeing something and I will stick to that.

[tallywx]

12z GFS has a 917mb hurricane drifting SW off the coast by 192 hours. I'm sorry, but I seriously don't buy it.

Plows it straight into the ridge and then gets stuck within it. Brilliant.

[SunnyThoughts]

12z GFS has a 917mb hurricane drifting SW off the coast by 192 hours. I'm sorry, but I seriously don't buy it.

Yeah, and not just for 24 hours...but for 3 or 4 dAys sitting and spinning. Hard to believe, but I guess its possible.

[mcheer23]

Data from the recon will be in the models tonight...I believe...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The GFS also shows Florence strengthening to 968mb in 48 hours. In my opinion, although Florence's structure has remarkably improved overnight, it's choking on dry air being wrapped in from the south, which has resulted in its core being weak with convection. That can take time to fully mix out (see Isaac in 2012), and until it can, it won't strengthen much. Never underestimate how much dry air can stop an otherwise healthy system.

[KWT]

Both CMC and UKMO bang on the NHC official forecast, HMON at 06z was in the same place more or less, decent agreement.

Hope the 12z ECM joins the GFS, that would be good.

[ConvergenceZone]

very encouraged this morning to see some of the models trending east. Hopefully this is a continual trend and within a day or two all models will be offshore. Obviously no guarantees, but I have seen that happen a few times before.

[NC_Cyclone]

UK is north a good bit stronger. Its finally got FLorence at the strength it should be. 940mb at end of run.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Data from the recon will be in the models tonight...I believe...

It will be from what I have heard so that is why I am saying tonight is crucial.

[ALhurricane]

Not buying into the GFS at this point given its typical right bias and tendency to try and move storms into ridges. Yes the UKMET and CMC trended north, but it’s a sensible shift given the orientation and strength of the ridge. Still too early to make a call but need more evidence before putting stock in the GFS.

[Aric Dunn]

UK is north a good bit stronger. Its finally got FLorence at the strength it should be. 940mb at end of run.

it has had it at a cat 4 the last couple runs farther south too. it is still within its own ensemble spread.

[mcheer23]

Not buying into the GFS at this point given its typical right bias and tendency to try and move storms into ridges. Yes the UKMET and CMC trended north, but it’s a sensible shift given the orientation and strength of the ridge. Still too early to make a call but need more evidence before putting stock in the GFS.

Agreed.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS... I think GFS is underestimating ridge and/or moving Flo to fast... That's a crazy loop that I'm 99% sure won't happen...

[chaser1]

12Z UK plotted on this

Thanks; far easier on the brain to view a graphic then a ton of data points lol. On a serious note, I believe a reasonable explanation to justify several models on this mornings run to be adjusting more to the north is a result of anticipating a somewhat deeper storm that is becoming increasingly anticipated to gain some latitude in the nearer term. Of course, that has yet to occur so their accuracy is predicated in part, to Florence soon commencing a WNW motion. I think we'll just need to patiently wait and see if the present ridging in place will cause Flo to push west (and south) of short term forecast points or whether forward motion begins to corroborate a slightly poleward shift that some models are suggesting will soon occur.

[hurricaneCW]

I thought the total track of the CMC looked what is to be expected, could always vary north or south of course.

Once we implement some data and get Florence moving more steadily, then we should have a better idea of where she will go.