ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Michele B]

This is making me think I should have evaluated

There’s still time to leave and there are hotel rooms still available in Pensacola & Mobile. Be safe!

Yes! Go west. Most people drive north and keep driving north....then lots of folks are stranded on the roads. Get on 10 and GO WEST!

I believe you don 't have to go too far....just get OFF the beach and at least 20-40 miles inland - and on the west side of the storm.

[FLpanhandle91]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/1RzxVCl.gif

Hey tolakram, can you post or pm me a link to that loop?

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1049834532956987393

[gatorcane]

[msbee]

This is making me think I should have evaluated

Are you seriously still there? I saw several peeps tell you to leave earlier today. I'm an old lady so let's pretend I'm your Grandma.
LEAVE NOW.

Dang dude!

I'm a grandma, too. Maybe this will do it: If you are not going to leave RIGHT NOW, then write your name and SS# on the inside of your forearm with a permanent marker. XOXO

And I am a grandma who just went through Hurricane Irma last year. Do NOT play with these storms. Better safe than sorry!

[dhweather]

South side seems to be dying down, shear or dry air?

It's not dry air, I just checked. Has to be shear.

[northjaxpro]

I have been watching closely to see if Michael is showing signs of making the much anticipated NE turn. Looks to still be moving almost due north. However, there may be signs that Michael may be slowing his forward speed just a bit. My eyes may.be deceiving.me, but I sense the turn mmay be very imminent.

[hurricaneCW]

Michael is going to have to sort out the southwest eyewall before this can explode... and hopefully it doesn't.

What are you talking about? This storm IS exploding, and has been for quite some time.

The way the south side of Michael looks, I doubt winds are Cat 4 criteria.

We're getting real time data that says it most certainly is a Cat 4. I don't know what else to say.

In fact I've seen a lot of people dismiss its intensity because it's not the perfect hurricane people are used to seeing.

It's very ignorant.

[supercane4867]

It's normal for the cloudtops to warm a bit when the eye really starts to clear out while the storm is still intensifying. There's nothing to stop Michael from reaching CAT4 at this point.

[meriland29]

I am putting my faith into my eyes, and my eyes are on the current Recon so..

[ouragans]

This is making me think I should have evaluated

GET OUT OF THERE! NOW!!!

I can't understand you've been waiting so long, to find out it's maybe too late.

Good luck

[craptacular]

If the vortex is not posted in the recon thread, when it comes in you can find it here
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml

They still haven't posted the VDM from the last center pass, and that was over an hour ago. They did, however, just make a nice figure 8 loop when lining up to go for the NW-to-SE pass.

[MrStormX]

It seems like just yesterday half of this website was complaining when Florence weakened before landfall. For those who enjoy destruction and chaos, it looks like Michael won't disappoint you (hopefully I am wrong).

Given the forward speed and the continued blow ups of convection, a Florence-esque situation seems unlikely to my non-professional eyes.

[psyclone]

Michael has been a fascinating storm to watch. throughout its life it has had issues with dry air, wind shear and has rarely had a closed eyewall. and yet it has steadily and relentlessly strengthened. we all know that storms frequently weaken on approach to the northern gulf coast. Maybe this one will do that but maybe not. Every bet against this system thus far has ended in tears. this thing is a tenacious fighter. I call it the big engine that could.

[hurricaneCW]

Given shear won't change much till landfall and Michael intensifying through asymmetric intensification, I fully expect another huge convective burst overnight that could drop the pressure another 10+ mb by morning.

Thinking it peaks at 120-125 knots.

[tolakram]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/1RzxVCl.gif

Hey tolakram, can you post or pm me a link to that loop?

It's wunderground but you need to be subscribed (a few bucks a year) to get the long loops. This is the radar site I used: https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/fl/red-bay/evx/?region=pie

[HurricaneBelle]

Amazing how those storms are filling in to the east

Yeah, we may get some TS gusts here in the Tampa Bay area as these storms both fill, and come up from the south especially once Michael starts moving east of north, however slightly. Interested in seeing what kind of gusts we get from that band which started on the north coast of Cuba, has held together and is now approaching Sarasota.

[FLpanhandle91]

I foresee the wobble watchers to be in full force this evening. Pay attention to the NHC updates and overall motion of recon fixes. With such aggressive convective bursts, there will be a lot of wobbling.

[tolakram]

South side seems to be dying down, shear or dry air?

It's not dry air, I just checked. Has to be shear.

Here is one theory. Click link to see 'thread".

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1049814078560956416

[gulfcoastdave]

Question , What time is the storm expected to start to make its turn more to northeast? I ask as I am over in the panhandle in Santa Rosa county. I have heard by 1am but I have been away most of the day due to work and wanted to see what you all have seen/heard.

thanks