ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[Blinhart]

12z HWRF is way south heading WNW nearing the Bahamas

Very scary picture, if it continues moving WSW that could be a potentially horrific storm.

[AutoPenalti]

Decent shift North. Looks like Euro caving in.

[Blown Away]

12z ECMWF/Euro... 72 hrs... Moving WNW

[ScottNAtlanta]

Lets do this one more time...

This is the MODELS thread...it is for posting model output. If you have a question or comment, please put it in the discussion thread. It gets very hard to find model output on this thread because it is full of stuff that needs to be in the discussion thread.
The Mods are having to move stuff at this point and they are working hard enough keeping things running smoothly to have to worry about that. Lets give them a hand and move the discussions to the discussion thread.
Examples of what should NOT be in this thread...

I think Florence will ...
Is Florence going to...
I think Florence will hit...
How will Florence react to...

All of this goes in the discussion thread...not here. So lets all do our part and be helpful by keeping things in the appropriate thread please. It will make the next week a lot easier on the people that make this site happen

Link to the discussion thread is here
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119804

[AutoPenalti]

Ridge looks way weaker than last run.

[NC_Cyclone]

Euro looks very reasonable on strengthening as well. Small shift north

[boulderrr]

GFS and ECMWF very similar up to 72 hours.

[Blown Away]

GFS and ECMWF very similar up to 72 hours.

ECMWF a bit NE of 12z GFS but shows a stronger ridge...

[CronkPSU]

12z HWRF is way south heading WNW nearing the Bahamas

YIKES And this Is why I am not letting my guard down here YET in central Florida

[boulderrr]

That HWRF image looks annular.

[tarheelprogrammer]

ECMWF and GFS coming together and what perfect timing. When one model shows the same thing two times in a row you cannot discount it. Will the SE be spared once again?

Edit: ECMWF ridge is weaker than GFS at hour 72.

[PandaCitrus]

Still chugging along WNW at 78 hours.

[kevin mathis]

ECMWF and GFS coming together and what perfect timing. When one model shows the same thing two times in a row you cannot discount it. Will the SE be spared once again?

Edit: ECMWF ridge is weaker than GFS at hour 72.

So your prognosticating the EURO will pull a miss, a loop and then OTS

[p1nheadlarry]

With the flow out there, the current underneath moves at a good pace, shouldn't have much upwelling.

Even with the labrador current? Surely some mixing is going on, even if the warm water flux is higher.

Do you mean the mixing of the Labrador current with the Gulf Stream?

Yes. Pretty baroclinic area, eddies both warm and cold form there.

[PandaCitrus]

It's a bee - line towards South Carolina right now through 90 hours.
Edit: slight northern bend at 96 hours. Possibly North Carolina this run.

[tarheelprogrammer]

ECMWF and GFS coming together and what perfect timing. When one model shows the same thing two times in a row you cannot discount it. Will the SE be spared once again?

Edit: ECMWF ridge is weaker than GFS at hour 72.

So your prognosticating the EURO will pull a miss, a loop and then OTS

Just a trend NE, and in a few runs a miss OTS. I will stick with it and hope for the best.

[Blown Away]

12z ECMWF/Euro... 96 hours

[PandaCitrus]

940 MB at 102 hours. Getting stronger. slightly north looks like North Carolina landfall.

[Steve]

Decent shift North. Looks like Euro caving in.

It’s about 20 miles north of the 00z run. Ridge to the north is weaker, but building at 72. Maybe 45 miles ne at 96. Ridge getting stronger but also slightly displaced NE at 96. Should landfall between 120 and 144 on the NC coast on this run coming in from the ESE or SE.

[MrJames]

12Z GFS Ensembles