ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Looks like a legit eye now.
Outflow channel is getting better connected with the ULL over the east tip of Cuba.
Last stop before landfall is the hot pool of water along the bend.
May make it to Cat 4.

Some of the peeps arent going to be satisfied until the eyewall is closed regardless of the central pressure and wind speed...the chasers struck gold, all they have to do is sit in panama city beach and thet get big winds and surge

[johngaltfla]

COD IR floater
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-13-96-1-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

OMG. I can not imagine what the next mission finds. That almost looks Pacific like with the pinhole.

[Highteeld]

eyewall still needs more work

[craptacular]

Recon just did some really crazy flying in the NW corner but is now finally coming in for that NW-SE pass.

[PTPatrick]

I keep watching closely for Tallahassee. Right now I’m hoping the core of the storm stays just to it’s west. Wouldn’t take a huge jog east to change the game tho and we know they often do that in this region at the last minute. That city does not have trees made to withstand cat 1 let alone 3 or 4.(see Hermine) An eyewall of a cat 4 scraping through from st George island into Leon county would lay waste to many beautiful oaks in the city and cause an unthinkable amount of damage. It’s going to suck for sure but on the current track the wind core of whatever this will be (not wading into the cat 3 or 4 debate) would most likely hit some of the more sparce areas between PCB And PSJ and then Blountstown and Bainbridge...all relatively less populated but still signicant communities that will take it on the chin.

The surge book is already written as has been well stated here. I exparct major surge damage in Gulf, Franklin and Wakulla and bay.

All that being said. I would still not be surprised to see this do worse damage to Tallahassee than Hermine, possibly on par with Kate.

[jlauderdal]

COD IR floater
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-13-96-1-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

OMG. I can not imagine what the next mission finds. That almost looks Pacific like with the pinhole.

Lets not go overboard, this isnt one of those textbook pacific systems...if you want to see a big system, google typhoon tip..tip was the real deal

[SunnyThoughts]

Water is up to Bamboo Willies on Pcola Beach.
For those not familiar it’s a bar on the boardwalk at Pensacola, Beach FL on the sound side.

So the sound has risen that much?

[supercane4867]

eyewall still needs more work

Good enough for a CAT4

[Hammy]

Recon just did some really crazy flying in the NW corner but is now finally coming in for that NW-SE pass.

Might've been trying to use time so they're as close to the advisory when the make the SW-NE pass if they make one?

[jlauderdal]

I keep watching closely for Tallahassee. Right now I’m hoping the core of the storm stays just to it’s west. Wouldn’t take a huge jog east to change the game tho and we know they often do that in this region at the last minute. That city does not have trees made to withstand cat 1 let alone 3 or 4.(see Hermine) An eyewall of a cat 4 scraping through from st George island into Leon county would lay waste to many beautiful oaks in the city and cause an unthinkable amount of damage. It’s going to suck for sure but on the current track the wind core of whatever this will be (not wading into the cat 3 or 4 debate) would most likely hit some of the more sparce areas between PCB And PSJ and then Blountstown and Bainbridge...all relatively less populated but still signicant communities that will take it on the chin.

The surge book is already written as has been well stated here. I exparct major surge damage in Gulf, Franklin and Wakulla.

All that being said. I would still not be surprised to see this do worse damage to Tallahassee than Hermine, possibly on par with Kate.

Ah, if the core stays just to the west, tally takes the brunt of it

[meriland29]

Wow, y'all, check this out

[PavelGaborik10]

Wow, y'all, check this out

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2018_14L/web/last24hrs.gif

Think it's safe to the an EWRC isn't coming anytime soon.

[jdjaguar]

Wow, y'all, check this out

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2018_14L/web/last24hrs.gif

Open or not, this is one mean storm.

[tigerz3030]

Looks like last couple of frames the jog NE is starting or it could be the wobble effect.

[StormPyrate]

I had no idea a storm could reach that intensity with an open eye
Learn something new everyday

[Taylormae]

Water is up to Bamboo Willies on Pcola Beach.
For those not familiar it’s a bar on the boardwalk at Pensacola, Beach FL on the sound side.

So the sound has risen that much?

Yes, that’s what the video showed. Sent to me by a friend (though he didn’t take it)

It’s public. Here’s the link if you’d like to see https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... =bookmarks

[sbcc]

I had no idea a storm could reach that intensity with an open eye
Learn something new everyday

That's a MIMIC extrapolation, not actual imagery.

From an earlier post:

Can I get a second set of eyes on the microwave ? Get another opinion if the eye wall has closed.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2018_14L/web/basicGifDisplay.html

The problem with these, as I learned recently, is they extrapolate the data between microwave passes. The only hard data is the pass itself, so go off of those only. Between passes, we have recon VDMs; at last report, both NOAA2 and AF301 (who has since left the storm) reported the eyewall as open in the SW.

[ConvergenceZone]

When is the next NHC update? I know we all expect the strength to go up, so I'm curious to see what the winds are up to now...,so aren't we overdo for an update?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

At this point it's clear that not having a 180-degree perfect eyewall is going to stop Michael from reaching Cat 4. May be enough to spare us of the possibility of waking up to a Cat 5 tomorrow.

[Hammy]

When is the next NHC update? I know we all expect the strength to go up, but aren't we overdo for an update?

We're about 45 minutes off from the next one. They don't usually start coming in at 1-2 hour intervals until we're about 12 hours from landfall.