ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[meriland29]

I think this run will have landfall, but in a different location. It will be interesting to see what it does with the time GFS assumes it will loom just offshore forever.

[Blown Away]

12z ECMWF/Euro... 120 hrs

[PandaCitrus]

114 hours weakening to 955 MB. Pointing at Southern North Carolina landfall.

[tarheelprogrammer]

12Z GFS Ensembles

The trend is your friend. Those look quite a bit east. ECMWF coming in NE some. GFS may be on to something

[Steve]

114 hours weakening to 955 MB. Pointing at Southern North Carolina landfall.

Looks like a solid Cat 3 heading toward SE NC

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z ECMWF essentially unchanged; only just a smudge more north, which gives more credence to the idea that the GFS is still an outlier.

[MrJames]

Euro looks to be heading to Wilmington, NC on this run.

[tarheelprogrammer]

114 hours weakening to 955 MB. Pointing at Southern North Carolina landfall.

Looks like a solid Cat 3 heading toward SE NC

Is that high res?

[PandaCitrus]

Landfall is going to be around the Wilmington NC area.

[Steve]

114 hours weakening to 955 MB. Pointing at Southern North Carolina landfall.

Looks like a solid Cat 3 heading toward SE NC

Is that high res?

No. It’s just off TT. It’s probably down in the 940s on hires. What’s bad about this run and especially at 500mb is the threat for Easten VA and the Tidewater. If this doesn’t come in as far and weaken, all those cities in that area like Norfolk, VA Beach and Richmond get a bigger bang.

[hurricaneCW]

Euro looks in line with the CMC and Ukmet, its solution is far different than the Gfs.

Gfs probably would've showed the same outcome but it has a tendency to break down ridges too quickly.

Fran/Isabel are good analogs for this. I did notice more ridging towards SE Canada, it could apply impacts closer to VA.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12Z GFS Ensembles

The trend is your friend. Those look quite a bit east. ECMWF coming in NE some. GFS may be on to something

The UK/CMC trended more towards the Euro, and the track Florence takes on the Euro is nothing like the GFS.

[tarheelprogrammer]

12Z GFS Ensembles

The trend is your friend. Those look quite a bit east. ECMWF coming in NE some. GFS may be on to something

The UK/CMC trended more towards the Euro, and the track Florence takes on the Euro is nothing like the GFS.

The ECMWF run up to 144 looks quite similar to the GFS just further west. All the models outside the JMA today trended NE toward the GFS while the GFS went further east. The ECMWF is turning this thing due north after making landfall near ILM. Let us see if it bends NE.

[PandaCitrus]

Moving NE at 144 hours through Central NC.

[Steve]

12Z GFS Ensembles

The trend is your friend. Those look quite a bit east. ECMWF coming in NE some. GFS may be on to something

The UK/CMC trended more towards the Euro, and the track Florence takes on the Euro is nothing like the GFS.

Tarheel said he’s anti-wishcasting though. He’s looking for any bright spots, and I can’t say that I blame him if he lives in e NC

[Blown Away]

I run of models and you get feeling FL, GA, and SC can take deep breath and NC keep waiting for the E shifts... Let's hope!

[TheDreamTraveler]

Yeah there's been a definite north trend with the 06z and the 12z GFS along with the 12z Euro...

[Steve]

Moving NE at 144 hours through Central NC.

Looks kind of due north but there is a bit of a western component overall from 120-144.

[MrJames]

[tarheelprogrammer]

ECMWF stalling at hour 168 similar to the GFS...........