ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[bg1]

Seems odd that when it comes to East Coast landfalls, the weird outliers seem to end up being correct. I think it was the EURO that predicted Joaquin staying OTS a few days before the G-IV mission, and I forget which model predicted something close to Jose's weird movement south of Canada last year before anyone else. Then there was the UKMET (?) keeping Irma weaker and further west over Cuba. Maybe the GFS is closest this time. Fortunately we should get a better picture in 12 hours with the atmospheric data.

[meriland29]

ECMWF stalling at hour 168 similar to the GFS...........

Is it stalling over land ? I can't get the graphs on my phone...

[Steve]

ECMWF stalling at hour 168 similar to the GFS...........

Also stronger and farther east so the problems for VA are amplified. Low res difference @168 is 992mb vs 1005mb at 0Z.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The trend is your friend. Those look quite a bit east. ECMWF coming in NE some. GFS may be on to something

The UK/CMC trended more towards the Euro, and the track Florence takes on the Euro is nothing like the GFS.

Tarheel said he’s anti-wishcasting though. He’s looking for any bright spots, and I can’t say that I blame him if he lives in e NC

I understand and I know the feeling completely. Just a year ago the models were trending Irma to go directly over my house with 150mph winds, I-75 was backed up to the point where a safe escape was unlikely, and I thought I might be about to loose my house (ultimately the eye did go directly over my house). I also know that the GFS did this last year with Irma too, and many users on here were starting to become convinced the "GFS was onto something". I do think a track shift is coming, but I seriously don't think it's going to go on a track like the GFS is suggesting.

[PandaCitrus]

It's stall at the VA/NC border.

[Aric Dunn]

annnnd now we wait for the 18z.. balloon data should make it into the models.

[TheDreamTraveler]

ECMWF stalling at hour 168 similar to the GFS...........

Yeah the GFS and Euro especially have been showing this thing stalling out for days around the mid atlantic which would be a disaster because these areas have had record rains and floods all year long already.

[tarheelprogrammer]

ECMWF stalling at hour 168 similar to the GFS...........

Yeah the GFS and Euro especially have been showing this thing stalling out for days around the mid atlantic which would be a disaster because these areas have had record rains and floods all year long already.

I am thinking a few more runs and the stall will be similar to the 12z GFS which is off the coast.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Another thing to note...the GFS showing it stalling off the North Carolina coast as a category 5 is flat out wrong because the model doesn't take into account ocean upwelling from Florence as it sits there. So if it sits off the coast it will most likely weaken.

[meriland29]

ECMWF stalling at hour 168 similar to the GFS...........

Yeah the GFS and Euro especially have been showing this thing stalling out for days around the mid atlantic which would be a disaster because these areas have had record rains and floods all year long already.

I am thinking a few more runs and the stall will be similar to the 12z GFS which is off the coast.

I think a few more runs and the GFS will have a better grasp on the likely rodge strength and position the stall similar to current Euro.

[MississippiWx]

We are within 5 days now and the Euro is starting to lock onto a landfall somewhere in the SC/NC vicinity. It doesn’t mean it’s correct, but I’d bet a lot of money on the Euro within 5 days over the GFS. GFS is an outlier for now.

[SoupBone]

annnnd now we wait for the 18z.. balloon data should make it into the models.

That'll either verify existing lines of thinking or change them completely. Good to hear that this data will make it into tonight's runs.

[shah83]

Ok, 192hrs sez disaster.

[toad strangler]

Epic rains for NC and VA verbatim here ... sit and rot

[MrJames]

[gatorcane]

Good news is that the chances it recurves without making landfall have certainly increased today. Just need another east shift or two. I see people calling the GFS an outlier but it still is one of the best models in the world so you just can’t “throw out” that model run.

[edu2703]

[LCfromFL]

Does anyone have the HWRF output?

[Emmett_Brown]

Does anyone have the HWRF output?

Here is a link to it on Tropical Tidbits. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 812&fh=120

Big south shift on the 12z HWRF, just off shore of NE FL at 126 hours.

[Vdogg]

This would be Matthew all over again. And that was supposedly our 500-year flood. Craziness!