ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

So for the Advisory they will go with 947mb if not 946mb because of the 16 knot winds.

I think they will go 946 mb NDG on the 11 p.m.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I remember Joaquin also didn't have the best environmental setup and it hit 135 knots. Michael's structure reminds me of Joaquin, at least.

[PandaCitrus]

It looks like it's taken a NNW jog in the latest Satellite images. I don't see any eastern component at all. This could surprise a lot of people in Destin and points west if it doesn't make the east move.

[StormPyrate]

000
URNT12 KWBC 100237
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 10/02:10:39Z
B. 27.05 deg N 086.51 deg W
C. 700 MB 2676 m
D. 948 mb
E. 240 deg 16 kt
F. OPEN ESE - S
G. C20
H. 110 kt
I. 331 deg 14 nm 02:06:58Z
J. 077 deg 121 kt
K. 330 deg 15 nm 02:06:41Z
L. 98 kt
M. 134 deg 12 nm 02:13:33Z
N. 221 deg 122 kt
O. 134 deg 12 nm 02:13:33Z
P. 13 C / 3050 m
Q. 21 C / 3061 m
R. 11 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.01 / 1 nm
U. NOAA2 1214A MICHAEL OB 24
MAX FL WIND 130 KT 123 / 16 NM 00:19:56Z

[SouthFloridawx]

What's the reduction for flight level winds?

[Nimbus]

Seems like the west side of Micheal is going to pack more of a punch than I was expecting. I'm in Pensacola and was hoping we would escape higher TS winds.

The sustained winds will have to travel a long way over land to get to Pensacola, but there are feeder bands with very heavy rain from higher altitudes that are moving at higher speeds. Flight level winds for your Longitude are still only in the 30 to 40 knot range according to recon. Michael has been heading almost due north but the forecast turn will make the Tallahassee surface wind forecast more difficult.

The situation with the 7 to 13 Ft storm surge has already been addressed with appropriate evacuations hopefully. Most of the homes on those barrier islands are stilt homes which could withstand cat 1 or low cat 2 force winds with a 10 foot surge. The winds near the beaches don't get any reduction from traveling over land.

[SunnyThoughts]

Well there ya have it. They are going to have to go to 130 mph at update I would think.

[PTrackerLA]

This storm is going to get alot of study. Really fought off a lot to get where it is. Can you imagine if conditions had been a little more perfect? Going to be quite bad as is.

Goes to show that we still have so much to learn about hurricanes and intensification as well as modeling. All signs pointed to shear prohibiting any significant strengthening just 3-4 days ago and yet here we are.

[PerfectStorm]

Could anyone break down projected peak wind speeds for the West Side - Pensacola? The symmetry, lowering pressure and convection looks like the W side will be unusually very strong. Have parents in Cantonment.

[PandaCitrus]

130kt flight level enough for 115kt Cat 4?

[1900hurricane]

What's the reduction for flight level winds?

Standard reduction from 700 mb is a ratio of 0.9.

[NDG]

The difference between Opal and Michael is that by the time it was in the position Michael is in the UL trough was already approaching SE LA, the reason why Opal started weakening as it started approaching the coast line.

[toad strangler]

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1049851155310874631?s=21[/Tweet]

[DestinHurricane]

looks like a west wobble on satellite

[TheStormExpert]

This storm is going to get alot of study. Really fought off a lot to get where it is. Can you imagine if conditions had been a little more perfect? Going to be quite bad as is.

Goes to show that we still have so much to learn about hurricanes and intensification as well as modeling. All signs pointed to shear prohibiting any significant strengthening just 3-4 days ago and yet here we are.

Reminds me of Harvey in a way.

[PTrackerLA]

NHC 10pm update Michael now 125mph 947mb.

[PandaCitrus]

Could anyone break down projected peak wind speeds for the West Side - Pensacola? The symmetry, lowering pressure and convection looks like the W side will be unusually very strong. Have parents in Cantonment.

If it hits in Panama City area, the Euro model says Pensacola area should only get 40 to 50 mph gusts.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/fl ... 0000z.html

[TheStormExpert]

Up to 110kts @11pm.

[NDG]

BTW, Leslie is back to a Hurricane, lol. The storm that will never go away.

[storm4u]

11 PM 125 mph