ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StormPyrate]

10:00 PM CDT Tue Oct 9
Location: 27.1°N 86.5°W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 947 mb
Max sustained: 125 mph

[Ken711]

NHC 11:00 PM forecast:


10:00 PM CDT Tue Oct 9
Location: 27.1°N 86.5°W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 947 mb
Max sustained: 125 mph

[MetroMike]

NHC 10pm update Michael now 125mph 947mb.

Are you sure?

[Hammy]

Looks like they're waiting for measured data from the NE quad before making an upgrade.

[Cyclenall]

It seems like just yesterday half of this website was complaining when Florence weakened before landfall. For those who enjoy destruction and chaos, it looks like Michael won't disappoint you (hopefully I am wrong).

Given the forward speed and the continued blow ups of convection, a Florence-esque situation seems unlikely to my non-professional eyes.

Oh Michael will find a way, there is already some "wind shear" in place somewhere ready to do what happens every time a hurricane is moving northwards towards the gulf coast. They have to be really tight hurricanes (small like Humberto) to peak as they're making LF around that zone. Think how many times a hurricane has peaked or met the NHC's LF intensity on the northern Gulf coast, very few and even less that are expected to be over major status. I don't believe it until its 2 hours away from LF, and despite what Michael is doing right now I'm firmly holding to that "rule of thumb". Michael will be lethal for water like all the rest of them so by no means does this indicate I think he will bust. Everyone should evacuate in Michael's path for sure and he will certainly live up to the hype water wise. I just never believe the LF windspeed intensity when predicted to be over 100 knots, like Florence I couldn't understand the CAT4/5 predictions on that one! I'm waiting for that ERC (Michael's structure may not allow for one before LF though IMO) to occur and postings of the usual cliches "dodged a bullet" and "could've been worse!". You can bet the farm on it.

[HurricaneBrain]

Officially forecast to become a category 4 tomorrow AM, although it’s likely already at that stage.

[storm4u]

looks like a west wobble on satellite

Actually looked like a really big wobble west..

[ConvergenceZone]

NHC 10pm update Michael now 125mph 947mb.

Wow, I'm actually shocked, based upon what we were seeing before with satellite representation and reports of crazy pressure falls/recon, and on all the posts here, I thought for sure we would be seeing a Cat 4 on this last update.... I'm wondering if this is a sign that the Peak is topped off and will just maintain it's strength from here?

[northjaxpro]

Officially forecasted to become a category 4 tomorrow AM.

This could happen anytime during the overnight wee hours.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

If the forecast holds then Florida will be hit by a Category 4 for the second year in a row.

[Nimbus]

Could anyone break down projected peak wind speeds for the West Side - Pensacola? The symmetry, lowering pressure and convection looks like the W side will be unusually very strong. Have parents in Cantonment.

[PandaCitrus]

NHC is now forecasting Cat 4 landfall.

Similar to the previous advisory, the environment ahead of Michael
is expected to remain conducive for additional strengthening until
landfall occurs due to SSTs of at least 85 deg F beneath the
hurricane, combined with decreasing vertical wind shear along with
the shear vector shifting from current west-northwesterly to a less
hostile southwesterly component, which will be more along Michael's
forecast track. As a result, Michael is now explicitly forecast to
become a category 4 hurricane before landfall occurs. After
landfall, significant weakening is expected while Michael moves over
the southeastern United States, but the cyclone is forecast to
re-strengthen over the western Atlantic due to baroclinic forcing
after it merges with a front and becomes extratropical on Friday.
The new intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the IVCN,
HCCA, and FSSE consensus models throughout the 120-h period.

[fwbbreeze]

Looks right on track...may have slowed just a bit.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

[StormPyrate]

Right at Category 4 at landfall

INIT 10/0300Z 27.1N 86.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 28.7N 86.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 30.8N 84.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND

[PTrackerLA]

Panama City Beach is in serious trouble. Sustained cat 4 winds with condo high rises is going to be an ugly sight. I hope no one is vertically evacuating there. With the daytime landfall we are going to be seeing unbelievable footage.

[NDG]

Could anyone break down projected peak wind speeds for the West Side - Pensacola? The symmetry, lowering pressure and convection looks like the W side will be unusually very strong. Have parents in Cantonment.

https://i.imgur.com/w8G6tb7.jpg

These winds are way too conservative.

[GeneratorPower]

It seems like just yesterday half of this website was complaining when Florence weakened before landfall. For those who enjoy destruction and chaos, it looks like Michael won't disappoint you (hopefully I am wrong).

Given the forward speed and the continued blow ups of convection, a Florence-esque situation seems unlikely to my non-professional eyes.

Oh Michael will find a way, there is already some "wind shear" in place somewhere ready to do what happens every time a hurricane is moving northwards towards the gulf coast. They have to be really tight hurricanes (small like Humberto) to peak as they're making LF around that zone. Think how many times a hurricane has peaked or met the NHC's LF intensity on the northern Gulf coast, very few and even less that are expected to be over major status. I don't believe it until its 2 hours away from LF, and despite what Michael is doing right now I'm firmly holding to that "rule of thumb". Michael will be lethal for water like all the rest of them so by no means does this indicate I think he will bust. Everyone should evacuate in Michael's path for sure and he will certainly live up to the hype water wise. I just never believe the LF windspeed intensity when predicted to be over 100 knots, like Florence I couldn't understand the CAT4/5 predictions on that one! I'm waiting for that ERC (Michael's structure may not allow for one before LF though IMO) to occur and postings of the usual cliches "dodged a bullet" and "could've been worse!". You can bet the farm on it.

This is exactly what will happen.

[tolakram]

It seems like just yesterday half of this website was complaining when Florence weakened before landfall. For those who enjoy destruction and chaos, it looks like Michael won't disappoint you (hopefully I am wrong).

Given the forward speed and the continued blow ups of convection, a Florence-esque situation seems unlikely to my non-professional eyes.

Oh Michael will find a way, there is already some "wind shear" in place somewhere ready to do what happens every time a hurricane is moving northwards towards the gulf coast. They have to be really tight hurricanes (small like Humberto) to peak as they're making LF around that zone. Think how many times a hurricane has peaked or met the NHC's LF intensity on the northern Gulf coast, very few and even less that are expected to be over major status. I don't believe it until its 2 hours away from LF, and despite what Michael is doing right now I'm firmly holding to that "rule of thumb". Michael will be lethal for water like all the rest of them so by no means does this indicate I think he will bust. Everyone should evacuate in Michael's path for sure and he will certainly live up to the hype water wise. I just never believe the LF windspeed intensity when predicted to be over 100 knots, like Florence I couldn't understand the CAT4/5 predictions on that one! I'm waiting for that ERC (Michael's structure may not allow for one before LF though IMO) to occur and postings of the usual cliches "dodged a bullet" and "could've been worse!". You can bet the farm on it.

This is exactly what will happen.

I hope you're right, but I would rather see hard analysis than this odd .. just wait, it will weaken ... tantrum.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Parts of the panhandle are going to start experiencing tropical storm force winds pretty soon.

[Jag95]

Just thought I'd check our friend Derek Ortt's twitter. 1) May be entering a period of RI (this is from 20 mins ago) 2) Category 4 at landfall seeming the most likely 3) Failure to evacuate may win you a Darwin award

https://twitter.com/derekortt?lang=en