ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

Does anyone have a recent microwave pass of her? That would be the most telling...

Looks like 2 hrs to completion

[meriland29]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2018_06L/web/gifsBy12hr_12.gif

Does anyone have a recent microwave pass of her? That would be the most telling...

Danke! Also, and correct me if I am wrong, the last few frames...is that the previous eyeway diminishing inside the new one ? (aka, almost complete ERC)??

[hurricaneCW]

Flo's wind field has most likely expanded considerably over the past 6-8 hours. We'll know more when recon gets back there.

[emeraldislenc]

Thanks I appreciate it.i am very concerned for our beach Town. If I leave it will be when our first responders leave. We have a back up site about 5 Miles inland that we will go to. We will make that decision on wed or thursday dependent on the storm. If it looks less like a bad situation we will leave.

[meriland29]

Also looks like she is picking up convection towards the end..

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Thanks I appreciate it.i am very concerned for our beach Town. If I leave it will be when our first responders leave. We have a back up site about 5 Miles inland that we will go to. We will make that decision on wed or thursday dependent on the storm. If it looks less like a bad situation we will leave.

Word of advice, if it is going to be a category five at landfall I'd get out if you can. I was in Dade County during Andrew back in '92 when I was a teen. You don't want to go through that believe me. I thank God every day we weren't directly on the coast.

[emeraldislenc]

Meant to say if it looks like a bad situation we will leave the island. I am tired!

[emeraldislenc]

If it is a cat 4 or 5 we will leave. We will move the first responders off the island.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

If it is a cat 4 or 5 we will leave. We will move the first responders off the island.

Smart idea, if you've never experienced at category four or five up close you can't even imagine what it can do. I can say without exaggeration It is an extremely frightening ordeal. One I prefer not to speak of often. Long-term members here are familiar with my story, that is about it.

[emeraldislenc]

I am the Mayor of the town and l will be staying here as long as it is safe. Please keep us in your prayers!

[Chris90]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2018_06L/web/gifsBy12hr_12.gif

Does anyone have a recent microwave pass of her? That would be the most telling...

Danke! Also, and correct me if I am wrong, the last few frames...is that the previous eyeway diminishing inside the new one ? (aka, almost complete ERC)??

Yep, the eyewall cycle is getting a lot closer to being complete, you are correct. Sometimes those inner remnants hang around for a bit though. Based on the size of the new eyewall though, and the fact it is looking quite powerful on microwave imagery, my opinion is that it won't be too much longer until it completely kills the old one. Bad news is the new one looks fairly large, so it'll be more stable and able to fight off things like shear a bit more effectively. I'd say this new structure is more conducive for Flo to hit Cat 5.

I'm an amateur though, so please don't take what I say as good guidance. Refer to NHC and local officials for making all your hurricane preparations.

[Aric Dunn]

I am the Mayor of the town and l will be staying here as long as it is safe. Please keep us in your prayers!

What town ? I will stop by maybe.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Thanks I appreciate it.i am very concerned for our beach Town. If I leave it will be when our first responders leave. We have a back up site about 5 Miles inland that we will go to. We will make that decision on wed or thursday dependent on the storm. If it looks less like a bad situation we will leave.

Even if it's a four, go leave. My grandfather was at the N eyewall of that H-typhoon (about cat 4 winds) which was a high-end C5 at landfall and it was terrifying. There was debris all over the streets and the rest of the scene would be too horrifying to describe in words. A cat 4 could still be chaotic.

[CrazyC83]

Flo's wind field has most likely expanded considerably over the past 6-8 hours. We'll know more when recon gets back there.

I'd expect the pressure to be quite a bit lower, perhaps in the 920s, even if the winds haven't responded.

[emeraldislenc]

Emerald Isle NC on the coast

[Aric Dunn]

Emerald Isle NC on the coast

I will come on wed and find a staging area nearby. However, the coast is the not a good idea. looking at your elevation of 10 feet. the estimated surge is 15 plus.. then wave action.. even if it weakens the surge will still be the same as a 4 or 5..

[MississippiWx]

The poleward outflow channel is now established. This is where Flo makes her run at Cat 5 as it looks like the inner core is starting to work itself out right in time for warmer SSTs.

[beoumont]

If it is a cat 4 or 5 we will leave. We will move the first responders off the island.

Smart idea, if you've never experienced at category four or five up close you can't even imagine what it can do. I can say without exaggeration It is an extremely frightening ordeal. One I prefer not to speak of often. Long-term members here are familiar with my story, that is about it.

Below is image at Swan Island after cat 5 Hurricane Janet paid a visit in 1955 Anyone who thinks intercepting a cat 5 hurricane will be a fulfilling experience is just plain stupid.

[Aric Dunn]

If it is a cat 4 or 5 we will leave. We will move the first responders off the island.

Smart idea, if you've never experienced at category four or five up close you can't even imagine what it can do. I can say without exaggeration It is an extremely frightening ordeal. One I prefer not to speak of often. Long-term members here are familiar with my story, that is about it.

Below is image at Swan Island after cat 5 Hurricane Janet paid a visit in 1955 Anyone who thinks intercepting a cat 5 hurricane will be a fulfilling experience is just plain stupid. http://www.hurricanevideo.citymax.com/i/swan_island.jpg

well yeah, staying on the coast is plain dumb in a cat 4 or 5.

[Blinhart]

Ok

I understand you are the mayor of the town, but like others have said, I think it would be best if you find a staging area that is at least 20 feet above sea level and at least 10 miles in land. I think it should be further away but that is the minimum I would be.