WDPN32 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (MARIA) WARNING
NR 13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 10W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 184 NM NORTHWEST
OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TY 10W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 55 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS FROM 55 KNOTS AT 04/18Z TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF
110 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 9-
NM IRREGULAR EYE WITH SPIRAL BANDING. CONSEQUENTLY, THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES HAVE JUMPED AND NOW RANGE FROM T5.0 TO 6.0 (90 TO 115
KNOTS). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS, WHICH IS AT
THE HIGH END OF THESE DVORAK ESTIMATES, HOWEVER RECENT UNOFFICIAL
DVORAK ESTIMATES NEAR 05/2000Z ARE INDICATING T6.5 TO T7.0 (127 TO
140 KNOTS). THIS DATA WILL BE INCORPORATED INTO THE NEXT WARNING AT
06/00Z. TY 10W HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY TUTT CELLS
TO THE WEST AND NORTHEAST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES RADIAL
OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY TUTT CELLS NEAR 24N 154E AND 17N 133E.
ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS LOW, SST VALUES RANGE
FROM 29 TO 30C AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE VERY HIGH. TY 10W
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK NORTH-
SOUTH ORIENTED STEERING RIDGE WITH A STRONG EAST-WEST ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH, THEREFORE, THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF A RECENT ASCAT IMAGE. THE
PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 140 KNOTS BASED ON THE CURRENT
RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE.
B. TY 10W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 102NM SPREAD AT TAU 72. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS AT
TAU 24 DUE TO VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 10W IS FORECAST TO TURN INCREASINGLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED STR BECOMES THE DOMINANT
STEERING INFLUENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEGRADE
AS SST COOLS SLIGHTLY, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES DECREASE AND UPPER-
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WEAKENS DUE TO INCREASING NORTHERLY VWS ASSOCIATED
WITH A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HWRF, THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A 200NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120, THEREFORE,
THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (MARIA) WARNING
NR 13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 10W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 184 NM NORTHWEST
OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TY 10W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 55 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS FROM 55 KNOTS AT 04/18Z TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF
110 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 9-
NM IRREGULAR EYE WITH SPIRAL BANDING. CONSEQUENTLY, THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES HAVE JUMPED AND NOW RANGE FROM T5.0 TO 6.0 (90 TO 115
KNOTS). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS, WHICH IS AT
THE HIGH END OF THESE DVORAK ESTIMATES, HOWEVER RECENT UNOFFICIAL
DVORAK ESTIMATES NEAR 05/2000Z ARE INDICATING T6.5 TO T7.0 (127 TO
140 KNOTS). THIS DATA WILL BE INCORPORATED INTO THE NEXT WARNING AT
06/00Z. TY 10W HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY TUTT CELLS
TO THE WEST AND NORTHEAST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES RADIAL
OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY TUTT CELLS NEAR 24N 154E AND 17N 133E.
ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS LOW, SST VALUES RANGE
FROM 29 TO 30C AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE VERY HIGH. TY 10W
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK NORTH-
SOUTH ORIENTED STEERING RIDGE WITH A STRONG EAST-WEST ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH, THEREFORE, THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF A RECENT ASCAT IMAGE. THE
PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 140 KNOTS BASED ON THE CURRENT
RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE.
B. TY 10W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 102NM SPREAD AT TAU 72. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS AT
TAU 24 DUE TO VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 10W IS FORECAST TO TURN INCREASINGLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED STR BECOMES THE DOMINANT
STEERING INFLUENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEGRADE
AS SST COOLS SLIGHTLY, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES DECREASE AND UPPER-
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WEAKENS DUE TO INCREASING NORTHERLY VWS ASSOCIATED
WITH A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HWRF, THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A 200NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120, THEREFORE,
THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
