ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[pcolaman]

Ok guys , been watch for a few hours on the Goes 16 sat and I know this storm is supposed to be heading north but looking at both sat and radar it sure does look as if the storm is still moving towards the nnw more that the north. So given that into account, I would think that this will cause the track to adjust to the west some distance . Taking into a fact that the storm is moving at 12 mph and its still heading to the nnw. that would move landfall in the westerly direction about 40 miles or so. With that given , it would make landfall closer to the Fort Walton beach area. About40 miles to the west of Panama City. Could the fact that the front hasn't made it close enough toward the storm cause more of a northerly track? Just thinking out loud ..

There is still a west movement in the overall motion. Probably has to do with the massive area of convection on the western half. Pensacola isn’t going to receive a direct hit, but it might have a little more impacts if the west trend continues.

I was thinking the same. Storms can do weird things once they interact with fronts . imo

[bamajammer4eva]

Ok guys , been watch for a few hours on the Goes 16 sat and I know this storm is supposed to be heading north but looking at both sat and radar it sure does look as if the storm is still moving towards the nnw more that the north. So given that into account, I would think that this will cause the track to adjust to the west some distance . Taking into a fact that the storm is moving at 12 mph and its still heading to the nnw. that would move landfall in the westerly direction about 40 miles or so. With that given , it would make landfall closer to the Fort Walton beach area. About40 miles to the west of Panama City. Could the fact that the front hasn't made it close enough toward the storm cause more of a northerly track? Just thinking out loud ..

00z run of GFS continued to show a west of due north heading through hour 6 bringing it to 27.4N/87.8W and still managed to landfall a few miles east of the 18z and has trended east all day so for those to the West hoping for a turn maybe it will be soon.

[craptacular]

Now they are flying north away from the center, but still at operational altitude. Hope they're good on fuel.

[Blizzard96x]

Omg latest IR frames showing it ramping up again....

[Condor]

Have asked myself the same questions the last day or two..

https://twitter.com/bradrousseau/status/1049826712266178560

Don't know how much truth there is to this , but I was told that the mid-level shear is what to watch when it comes to these storms?

Anybody here that can comment on this ?

[Jag95]

He's edging to the north and west of the latest plot and it does look like he's still got some west motion. I'd expect some flattening of the western periphery if he was feeling the front but I still don't see it. The front extends from the TX coast to NW MS now so you'd think it wouldn't be too much longer.

[Jonny]

Where’s the turn?
(Nervous in Niceville)

I'm in Freeport.

The storm is making landfall in less than 24 hours, so even if it did move NW, there wouldn't be a huge change with the cone.

[Sanibel]

I think this is peak because the continental air has gotten wrapped...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[djones65]

Remember to all the residents of northwest Florida who are wobble watching... It means that you have a "near 70%" chance of getting the eye! Remember the cone is the zone in which 2/3 of all storms will traverse given our current limitations of tropical cyclone forecasting. If I am under a warning. I wouldn't discount it just because the center line is to the east. With a storm like this. why do you want to gamble. If the turn is delayed... Destin and Fort Walton take a beating... If it turns earlier... then Panama City to Apalachicola get leveled... This is NOT an exact science!!!

[USTropics]

It's possible they did not feel comfortable flying through the NE quad, Weathernerds satellite shows quite a few lightning strikes in the NE quad:

[Highteeld]

[Jonny]

Remember to all the residents of northwest Florida who are wobble watching... It means that you have a "near 70%" chance of getting the eye! Remember the cone is the zone in which 2/3 of all storms will traverse given our current limitations of tropical cyclone forecasting. If I am under a warning. I wouldn't discount it just because the center line is to the east. With a storm like this. why do you want to gamble. If the turn is delayed... Destin and Fort Walton take a beating... If it turns earlier... then Panama City to Apalachicola get leveled... This is NOT an exact science!!!

You're right.

May not be likely, but this storm has surprised people already, so anything is possible.

[meriland29]

Having a hard time telling. Is he weakening, steady, or strengthening?

[MississippiWx]

Here comes the widespread -80C cloud tops overtaking the CDO again. Just unbelievable.

[PavelGaborik10]

It's possible they did not feel comfortable flying through the NE quad, Weathernerds satellite shows quite a few lightning strikes in the NE quad:

https://i.imgur.com/zFN5Kym.gif

They've flown into worse.

[Jag95]

I think this is peak because the continental air has gotten wrapped...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Just for the record, I concur.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[utweather]

He's edging to the north and west of the latest plot and it does look like he's still got some west motion. I'd expect some flattening of the western periphery if he was feeling the front but I still don't see it. The front extends from the TX coast to NW MS now so you'd think it wouldn't be too much longer.

Looking at a wind map I see the front farther back in west central Texas to central Oklahoma instead. Is my map wrong?

[MississippiWx]

It's possible they did not feel comfortable flying through the NE quad, Weathernerds satellite shows quite a few lightning strikes in the NE quad:

https://i.imgur.com/zFN5Kym.gif

This has to be the reasoning. I've never seen them purposely not sample to NE quadrant like they just did.

[Hammy]

It's possible they did not feel comfortable flying through the NE quad, Weathernerds satellite shows quite a few lightning strikes in the NE quad:

https://i.imgur.com/zFN5Kym.gif

Also possible they were getting a moisture sample--the west half is where the dropsondes were recording the driest air earlier.

[Javlin]

The cloud structure has been all day a NW/NNW kinda gives you a short term time line of the direction.The cloud structure now points to AL/FL line almost due N with a slight tilt W...Many of the models do not start the kick R till 29.8' except the CMC(12Z) has it going in between Pensacola and Ft.Walton if my geography is correct Pensacola,Ft.Walton,Destin,San Destin then PC .It will make a difference as which side you are on as long as you are not in the EW be careful everyone.