ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[utweather]

Looking at a wind map I see the front farther back in west central Texas to central Oklahoma instead. Is my map wrong?

Looked at another map both look the same to me. I cant tell how fast its moving but it seems slow so that would mean it's not gonna affect hurricane for a while. Correct?

You can follow the trough on UL Water Vapor images. I've roughly highlighted the edge here in pink:

https://i.imgur.com/6TSxqyY.jpg

Ah, water vapor loop. It's late, thank you. Can you tell if its moving west to east fast enough before the hurricane makes landfall. It seems like it has been stuck for a few days and I noticed temps in the panhandle had been warmer yesterday than the day before after they had cooled when the winter advisories had gone up in the Rockies.

[USTropics]

Looked at another map both look the same to me. I cant tell how fast its moving but it seems slow so that would mean it's not gonna affect hurricane for a while. Correct?

You can follow the trough on UL Water Vapor images. I've roughly highlighted the edge here in pink:

https://i.imgur.com/6TSxqyY.jpg

Ah, water vapor loop. It's late, thank you. Can you tell if its moving west to east fast enough before the hurricane makes landfall. It seems like it has been stuck for a few days and I noticed temps in the panhandle had been warmer yesterday than the day before after they had cooled when the winter advisories had gone up in the Rockies.

So basically this is what is occurring. The trough is acting to erode the ridge that is currently blocking Michael from wanting to naturally go poleward. It does not need to be positioned directly to the north to turn Michael east, it just needs to sufficiently erode the periphery of the high pressure. The SW flow as the trough approaches will kick Michael more NE.

[utweather]

Looked at another map both look the same to me. I cant tell how fast its moving but it seems slow so that would mean it's not gonna affect hurricane for a while. Correct?

You can follow the trough on UL Water Vapor images. I've roughly highlighted the edge here in pink:

Also keep in mind the trough is acting to erode the ridge that is currently blocking Michael from wanting to naturally go poleward. It does not need to be positioned directly to the north to turn Michael east, it just needs to sufficiently erode the periphery of the high pressure. The SW flow as the trough approaches will kick Michael more NE.

Ok, thanks for the explanation. That what I was asking next.

[craptacular]

AF306 did take off at 12:35am EDT ... obs just finally came in for that. Good night, and stay safe everyone!

[Cyclenall]

One scientific note I'll add is I'll be truly floored if Michael is just beginning to make landfall and the continental dry air-mass isn't "working on him". For a system of this size that would be unprecedented.

Where did the floater page go? Both the old and new one don't work...

Almost afraid to see when I wake up tomorrow. Praying this pulls a Lilly and falls apart.....MGC

Hurricane Lili was in Oct as well, but Michael I think will vastly surpass Lili's punch. Considering the past 13 years I'd be shocked at this point if Michael didn't pull a Lilly.

[fwbbreeze]

It appears that perhaps the northward, NNE motion has begun. Need a few more frames to be sure but it would be just about on time with what the NHC has been calling for.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

[Hurricaneman]

It appears that perhaps the northward, NNE motion has begun. Need a few more frames to be sure but it would be just about on time with what the NHC has been calling for.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

Looking at radar it looks like the eyewall is now closed

[Ritzcraker]

It appears that perhaps the northward, NNE motion has begun. Need a few more frames to be sure but it would be just about on time with what the NHC has been calling for.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

Im still seeing it wobbling west...

[pcolaman]

It appears that perhaps the northward, NNE motion has begun. Need a few more frames to be sure but it would be just about on time with what the NHC has been calling for.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

Im still seeing it wobbling west...

looks to the west of the track to me also.

[MississippiWx]

I am amazed at the convective pattern once again. So intense. Need recon. Btw, lightning is nuts in the eye wall right now.

[Blizzard96x]

When will the next plane get into the system? I wish they were there right now, so much lightning in the NE eyewall...

[vortex100]

0520Z satellite image shows high topped convection once again wrapping around the pinhole eye of hurricane Michael. In addition, lightning is appearing in the eye wall indicating rapid intensification.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/ima ... ?26.6273.5

[fwbbreeze]

It appears that perhaps the northward, NNE motion has begun. Need a few more frames to be sure but it would be just about on time with what the NHC has been calling for.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

Im still seeing it wobbling west...

looks to the west of the track to me also.

I never said it wasnt slightly west of the forecast track
..just that the current motion appears to be due north to slightly NNE. just gotta keep watching to make sure the motion is in fact making a change. .

[Condor]

Anyone watching IR you have cold tops firing off again in the NE quadrant

[pcolaman]

Im still seeing it wobbling west...

looks to the west of the track to me also.

I never said it wasnt slightly west of the forecast track
..just that the current motion appears to be due north to slightly NNE. just gotta keep watching to make sure the motion is in fact making a change. .

Does seem to have made some adjustments more to the north than the nnw it was on.

[Ritzcraker]

I never said it wasnt slightly west of the forecast track
..just that the current motion appears to be due north to slightly NNE. just gotta keep watching to make sure the motion is in fact making a change. .

I am saying that while it appeared to be moving NNE a few frames ago it has now moved back west. Overall motion appears to be NNW at this time...

[TheDreamTraveler]

0520Z satellite image shows high topped convection once again wrapping around the pinhole eye of hurricane Michael. In addition, lightning is appearing in the eye wall indicating rapid intensification.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/ima ... ?26.6273.5

It really looks like it's going to take off now.

[TennTradition]

I am amazed at the convective pattern once again. So intense. Need recon. Btw, lightning is nuts in the eye wall right now.

Definitely. About the time a slot seemed to be maybe working into the core structure, he wrapped up, fired off some intense convection, and lightening followed. Really intense activity right now.

[MississippiWx]

Looks like this new recon plane isn't going to sample the northeast quadrant on the first pass either.

[Condor]

AF306 Mission #13 is in the storm we will have to see what we get back on recon. Hopefully we get a fly through in the NE quadrant and can see where this guy is at