ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[tallywx]

Euro @ Wilmington and GFS @ OBX seems to be narrowing down a landfall zone significantly. That was actually a significant pull west of the 18z GFS.

[Steve]

Here is the GFS at 500mb. Ridge isn’t budging yet. Signaling a prolonged event with an onshore flow. Points north into VA/MD and DE look to be imperiled.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 818&fh=150

which = poppycock.

It’s the GFS. You can’t totally discount a stall/loop as other models have shown similar. Looks to nudge sw. But what it’s showing is a strengthening ridge overtop and stronger than 12z.

[tolakram]

Is stalling over the gulf stream the one place where stationary storms won't be as effected by upwelling?

[drewschmaltz]

It's comical how little weakening is shown by the GFS. That close to shore plus stalled for 2 days and it's still at 941mb .

Oh, but no. If only. Hr 168 deepens back to 938. WORST. MODEL. RUN. EVER. NEXT!!!!!!!!!

[tarheelprogrammer]

I was hoping the 18z GFS would keep the east trend going Here is to 0z. I did fill up on gas and water just a little while ago. Crazy times ahead that is for sure. Stores still had plenty of stuff around here which is nice.

[tolakram]

I was hoping the 18z GFS would keep the east trend going Here is to 0z. I did fill up on gas and water just a little while ago. Crazy times ahead that is for sure. Stores still had plenty of stuff around here which is nice.

Lots of time until the 0z run. Double check supplies.

[supercane4867]

It should be said too that Florence will not stay that strong for that long off the coast if it barely moves due to the water upwelling. It'll start to weaken pretty fast.

It's sitting over the gulfstream so it won't be as much upwelling as it would be in the open Atlantic. But the intensity is still overdone.

[Steve]

Is stalling over the gulf stream the one place where stationary storms won't be as effected by upwelling?

Flow in is 5-6mph and it’s ever replenishing.

[Aric Dunn]

Here is the GFS at 500mb. Ridge isn’t budging yet. Signaling a prolonged event with an onshore flow. Points north into VA/MD and DE look to be imperiled.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 818&fh=150

which = poppycock.

It’s the GFS. You can’t totally discount a stall/loop as other models have shown similar. Looks to nudge sw. But what it’s showing is a strengthening ridge overtop and stronger than 12z.

you absolutely can.. because it is the GFS lol

[gatorcane]

Wow looks really bad for the outer banks on this GFS run which now is going for a second landfall:

[TheDreamTraveler]

Is stalling over the gulf stream the one place where stationary storms won't be as effected by upwelling?

Upwelling occurs anywhere in the ocean no matter the heat content. The problem is models like the GFS can't take upwelling into consideration. I was reading Ryan Maue's discussion about it on twitter earlier. Was pretty interesting.

[drewschmaltz]

Seems pretty reasonable. High five GFS.

[hurricaneCW]

The stall looks legit, just look at how strong the ridge is to its north and it's been trending stronger. There's nothing to send her away.

We can hope it stalls to the east of NC instead of right over it like the Euro showed.

[Aric Dunn]

im just really enjoying the GIANT non tropical low that drops SW none the less nearly into the sub tropics in september right next to good old florence.. .. next please..

[tolakram]

[Blown Away]

Amazing how good the modeling is that a storm at 55W (+1500 miles away) and I feel pretty confident that a narrow area @NC is very likely the target...

[supercane4867]

So the GFS first wipes Outerbanks completely off the map, then it has Flo stalling and drifting due west into Wilmington. Okay...

[meriland29]

What in the blue heck is going on with her this run? She stalled just a hair offshore and is now b lining it straight west at 186???

[PTrackerLA]

The major takeaway from the latest EURO and GFS runs is a collapse in steering currents seems likely. Given the potential magnitude of the freshwater flooding event folks better pray it pulls this nonsense while offshore. This is becoming quite the situation in the models!

[CalmBeforeStorm]

which = poppycock.

It’s the GFS. You can’t totally discount a stall/loop as other models have shown similar. Looks to nudge sw. But what it’s showing is a strengthening ridge overtop and stronger than 12z.

you absolutely can.. because it is the GFS lol

The Euro had a similar solution only a little further west. So both major models suck?