ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like the new eyewall is fully closed off now. eye is less ragged. could be the start of deepening.

[Ken711]

Good view of how large Florence is.

[im gur]https://imgur.com/ajsS5ce[/imgur]

How does Florence's size compare to Isabel and Floyd?

[dukeblue219]

How is her strength right now? Is she struggling?

the inner eye looks to have finally completely dissipated. only a matter of time now before deepening.

not sure why the recon is so few and far between. but hopefully there is another soon.

Next fix I think is this evening 8pm-ish, with 6-hourly fixes for a day and then moving to 3-hourly fixes late tomorrow. The USAF seems to only be doing two passes because they're flying out of CONUS. I guess they're just stretched thin with investigating Isaac as well? I also keep forgetting just how far from land this storm has been the last couple days.

[jdjaguar]

How is her strength right now? Is she struggling?

No, she's not 'struggling'. She's getting ready to devastate my state.

NHC has her down to CAT 3 at landfall. (still devastating, but not "as" devastating)

[plasticup]

Looks like the new eyewall is fully closed off now. eye is less ragged. could be the start of deepening.

I agree that she looks ready to pop:

[artist]

How is her strength right now? Is she struggling?

No, she's not 'struggling'. She's getting ready to devastate my state.

NHC has her down to CAT 3 at landfall. (still devastating, but not "as" devastating)

The stalling out for flooding could be equally devastating as any wind.

[Raebie]

No, she's not 'struggling'. She's getting ready to devastate my state.

NHC has her down to CAT 3 at landfall. (still devastating, but not "as" devastating)

The stalling out for flooding could be equally devastating as any wind.

Just ask Houston. And that's on top of surge.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 49A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
200 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...FLORENCE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND INCREASING IN SIZE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTH
AND SOUTH CAROLINA...INLAND FLOODING TO FOLLOW...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 66.2W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES

[BYG Jacob]

No, she's not 'struggling'. She's getting ready to devastate my state.

NHC has her down to CAT 3 at landfall. (still devastating, but not "as" devastating)

The stalling out for flooding could be more devastating as any wind.

Fixed that for you, wind (unless an extreme case like Irma) is never the biggest problem with hurricanes. Its storm surge and rain.

[meriland29]

How's her size? My phone is acting funny...i cant see the images.

[rolldamntoad]

I still have trouble with Zulu time after all these years so im not sure even looking at the above information when the next flight is, or even if there is another flight today. Not sure at all.

In Windows 10, there is an option for "Additional Clocks." I have one set to UTC to help me figure that out. In iOS, you can go to the Clock app, add a new city, and search for "UTC." I'm sure Android and other devices are similar. Hope this helps.

[jdjaguar]

NHC has her down to CAT 3 at landfall. (still devastating, but not "as" devastating)

The stalling out for flooding could be more devastating as any wind.

Fixed that for you, wind (unless an extreme case like Irma) is never the biggest problem with hurricanes. Its storm surge and rain.

storm surge estimates have also been lowered.

not minimizing anything, just reporting latest forecasts.

[plasticup]

wind (unless an extreme case like Irma) is never the biggest problem with hurricanes. Its storm surge and rain.

Well now you're just being silly. Wind is plenty damaging, as thousands of roofless homes are about to show you.

[Ken711]

NHC update.

2:00 PM AST Tue Sep 11
Location: 27.1°N 66.2°W
Moving: WNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 950 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph

[JBCycloneStan]

The stalling out for flooding could be more devastating as any wind.

Fixed that for you, wind (unless an extreme case like Irma) is never the biggest problem with hurricanes. Its storm surge and rain.

storm surge estimates have also been lowered.

not minimizing anything, just reporting latest forecasts.

That's interesting. I was under the impression that weakening right before landfall does not usually diminish the storm surge potential (see Katrina).

[artist]

NHC has her down to CAT 3 at landfall. (still devastating, but not "as" devastating)

The stalling out for flooding could be equally devastating as any wind.

Just ask Houston. And that's on top of surge.

Yes, the rescues there were unbelievable, and lives lost due to not heeding the strength of the flooding currents.
Take care, Raebie. And a true cat 3 landfall is devastating-

Cat 3
Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

[craptacular]

When is the next recon?

I see

AF 11/2330Z - 7:30PM EDT

As the next one.

That next flight is the first of the ramped-up recon schedule, according to plans posted Sunday and Monday (haven't posted one yet today ... it's "late" based on previous schedule). No more than six hour gaps between fixes through tomorrow afternoon, and then down to three hours max.

[tolakram]

wind (unless an extreme case like Irma) is never the biggest problem with hurricanes. Its storm surge and rain.

Well now you're just being silly. Wind is plenty damaging, as thousands of roofless homes are about to show you.

What he said is true, storm surge causes much more damage than wind in monetary loss.

[plasticup]

Beautiful image capturing mesovortices as the eye clears:

[SoupBone]

NHC has her down to CAT 3 at landfall. (still devastating, but not "as" devastating)

The stalling out for flooding could be equally devastating as any wind.

Just ask Houston. And that's on top of surge.

Allison 01', Tax Day Floods 16', and Harvey 17' all say 'hey'.