ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[tarheelprogrammer]

18z HWRF is back to the idea of Flo bombing out to a strong CAT5.

That could keep her offshore, correct?

[Blown Away]

12z HWRF-P Model...

[Ken711]

So I assume with more data coming into the models they are starting to show the blocking high isn't as strong, positioned further west or later to arrive, allowing the model shifts north and east today? Will there be further data yet to be digested in the OZ tonight?

[ScottNAtlanta]

18z HWRF is back to the idea of Flo bombing out to a strong CAT5.

That could keep her offshore, correct?

I guess the answer in the previous post would be...no

[Blown Away]

12z CMC/GEM...

[J_J99]

So I assume with more data coming into the models they are starting to show the blocking high isn't as strong, positioned further west or later to arrive, allowing the model shifts north and east today? Will there be further data yet to be digested in the OZ tonight?

GFS had partial data from the upper air missions and shifted westward....

0Z will be enlightening.

[MacTavish]

I’m sorry but it would hardly take a miracle for Florence to landfall anywhere south of Jacksonville, All it would take is a little longer of the wsw motion that most of the models are forecasting to occur and a slightly stronger ridge oriented a little farther southwest then what is currently being depicted by the models. Is this scenario likely? Of course not but it is far from impossible. The TVCN has been shifting southwest all day and every advisory package the NHC has followed suit in shifting the forecast track southwest. Currently the Mid-Atlantic states are most at risk but a lot can change in 6-7 days.

I know you really wanted to see some wind but.. god favors climatology.. watch the hebert boxes lol

Actually I no longer live in the state of Florida. And if you go by climatology then Florence will be going out to sea.

Wrong, many storms have made a US landfall from Florence's position. And yes it would literally take an act of god for a south florida landfall.

[bg1]

So I assume with more data coming into the models they are starting to show the blocking high isn't as strong, positioned further west or later to arrive, allowing the model shifts north and east today? Will there be further data yet to be digested in the OZ tonight?

18Z GFS actually showed a stronger ridge and shifted west from 12Z.
We'll get a bunch of atmospheric data for the 00Z models.

[Blown Away]

So I assume with more data coming into the models they are starting to show the blocking high isn't as strong, positioned further west or later to arrive, allowing the model shifts north and east today? Will there be further data yet to be digested in the OZ tonight?

GFS had partial data from the upper air missions and shifted westward....

0Z will be enlightening.

10+ years ago I can remember recon data at times would have substantial effects of tracks, but I'm thinking we will get the same models flopping around the Carolinas with the 0z... We shall see...

[SFLcane]

It’s quite clear models are zoning in the Carolinas right now hwrf is way north into SC.

[MrJames]

18Z GFS Ensembles



Much tighter cluster with fewer stragglers.

[Ken711]

So I assume with more data coming into the models they are starting to show the blocking high isn't as strong, positioned further west or later to arrive, allowing the model shifts north and east today? Will there be further data yet to be digested in the OZ tonight?

GFS had partial data from the upper air missions and shifted westward....

0Z will be enlightening.

10+ years ago I can remember recon data at times would have substantial effects of tracks, but I'm thinking we will get the same models flopping around the Carolinas with the 0z... We shall see...

Thanks. The Euro is already showing a landfall South and West of the GFS last few runs. Are you expecting it to move South and West with this new data, since the 12Z Euro was North and East of the previous OZ Euro run?

[Ken711]

18Z GFS Ensembles



Much tighter cluster with fewer stragglers.

Still a fair amount offshore. Sure would like to see more ensembles offshore

[supercane4867]

18z HWRF making a beeline toward Wilmington at day 5 as a 130kt hurricane

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18Z GFS Ensembles

Much tighter cluster with fewer stragglers.

Still a fair amount offshore. Sure would like to see more ensembles offshore

Significantly less than the 12z:

[txwatcher91]

It’s quite clear models are zoning in the Carolinas right now hwrf is way north into SC.

Yep agreed. Everything is honing in on the Carolinas and we are getting inside 5 days where models only make small shifts and begin to narrow down the landfall zone.

[MrJames]

HWRF now into Wilmington.

[MacTavish]

Put an L in the UKMET's column.

[Bocadude85]

I know you really wanted to see some wind but.. god favors climatology.. watch the hebert boxes lol

Actually I no longer live in the state of Florida. And if you go by climatology then Florence will be going out to sea.

Wrong, many storms have made a US landfall from Florence's position. And yes it would literally take an act of god for a south florida landfall.

Really what storms that originated at Florence’s initial location made landfall in the USA?
Out of curiosity what state do you live in??

[JtSmarts]

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