ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blow_Hard]

The changes over the last two hours on satellite are incredible, just beyond words. And frightening it's happening with landfall so soon with so little time to weaken (if it does at all)

My thought exactly. I really hope everyone evacuated. It's so easy to believe a storm won't be that strong at landfall due to the media overhyping things and previous storms weakening as they approached landfall. I'm just hoping these people took it seriously. There's not much more time left to react.

Good morning all...Panama City here. My wife and I are staying to take care of her elderly parents. They live inland in a newly built house with few windows and no trees in the yard. I have been through every hurricane that has hit here since Eloise and I'd be lying if I said I wasn't nervous. I think we'll be fine but we're in unchartered territory. I really appreciate the information I get here. I will try to update on our conditions if I can but obviously my first priority is taking care of the family. I can tell you that for whatever reason residents here have not evacuated in large numbers like they have for storms like Kate, Opal and Ivan. I think a lot are like me...sure, we knew a storm was approaching but I don't many thought we'd be looking at anything of this magnitude.

[KWT]

That eastern eyewall is just exceptional in terms of presentation, just explosive.

First outer bands working into the panhandle right now and water already starting to rise up...

[MississippiWx]

Michael has an incredibly annular appearance now, and the lightning strikes on the eastern eyewall continue to increase:

https://i.imgur.com/MYtNqYs.gif

You can tell the NE movement is beginning. The convection on the northeast side has flattened a bit as it begins moving into the ridge which should begin to break down soon.

[FireRat]

All i can say is damn! This storm has gone for the worst case scenario since the start and I really hope everyone in the path of Michael heeded the warnings and evacuated!! I know it seems like the "crying wolf" media hype may have led some to underestimate this one and now, we may have a wolf on our hands!
This storm is strengthening on its way to landfall, unlike most north GOM storms, could this be sort of like a Camille?? I shudder to think what will happen in the area Wednesday afternoon, really hope the storm weakens last minute to lessen the blow...damn.

[MississippiWx]

The changes over the last two hours on satellite are incredible, just beyond words. And frightening it's happening with landfall so soon with so little time to weaken (if it does at all)

My thought exactly. I really hope everyone evacuated. It's so easy to believe a storm won't be that strong at landfall due to the media overhyping things and previous storms weakening as they approached landfall. I'm just hoping these people took it seriously. There's not much more time left to react.

Good morning all...Panama City here. My wife and I are staying to take care of her elderly parents. They live inland in a newly built house with few windows and no trees in the yard. I have been through every hurricane that has hit here since Eloise and I'd be lying if I said I wasn't nervous. I think we'll be fine but we're in unchartered territory. I really appreciate the information I get here. I will try to update on our conditions if I can but obviously my first priority is taking care of the family. I can tell you that for whatever reason residents here have not evacuated in large numbers like they have for storms like Kate, Opal and Ivan. I think a lot are like me...sure, we knew a storm was approaching but I don't many thought we'd be looking at anything of this magnitude.

Be safe. You are more than likely in for a wild ride. Glad that there are no trees around the house and that you are inland.

[KWT]

All i can say is damn! This storm has gone for the worst case scenario since the start and I really hope everyone in the path of Michael heeded the warnings and evacuated!! I know it seems like the "crying wolf" media hype may have led some to underestimate this one and now, we may have a wolf on our hands!
This storm is strengthening on its way to landfall, unlike most north GOM storms, could this be sort of like a Camille?? I shudder to think what will happen in the area Wednesday afternoon, really hope the storm weakens last minute to lessen the blow...damn.

I'm starting to fear that Michael is in that mould rather than in the mould is of an opal/lili, still no real signs of any degrading of the eyewall that you typically see at this point from gulf hurricanes.

[mrbagyo]

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 10100203
SATCON: MSLP = 932 hPa MSW = 128 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 124.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 119 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 210 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 5.9 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 915 hPa 140 knots Scene: CDO Date: OCT100500
CIMSS AMSU: 946 hPa 100 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 10100203
ATMS: 965.7 hPa 83.2 knots Date: 10091906
SSMIS: 965.3 hPa 86.3 knots Date: 10091906
CIRA ATMS: 965 hPa 90 knots Date: 10091907

[LarryWx]

Has anyone seen Aric post recently? He's been as big a part of forecasting the evolution of this as anyone.

I see NNE movement but am guessing it will wobble back to near due north for a couple of hours before going NNE and NE for good as it is still a little too soon for steady NNE movement yet per models.

[northjaxpro]

The changes over the last two hours on satellite are incredible, just beyond words. And frightening it's happening with landfall so soon with so little time to weaken (if it does at all)

My thought exactly. I really hope everyone evacuated. It's so easy to believe a storm won't be that strong at landfall due to the media overhyping things and previous storms weakening as they approached landfall. I'm just hoping these people took it seriously. There's not much more time left to react.

Good morning all...Panama City here. My wife and I are staying to take care of her elderly parents. They live inland in a newly built house with few windows and no trees in the yard. I have been through every hurricane that has hit here since Eloise and I'd be lying if I said I wasn't nervous. I think we'll be fine but we're in unchartered territory. I really appreciate the information I get here. I will try to update on our conditions if I can but obviously my first priority is taking care of the family. I can tell you that for whatever reason residents here have not evacuated in large numbers like they have for storms like Kate, Opal and Ivan. I think a lot are like me...sure, we knew a storm was approaching but I don't many thought we'd be looking at anything of this magnitude.

Oh I hope you are wrong about that many people staying behind. I spoke to.my extended family in Panama City last night and literally implored them to get out of there .OW and head northwest. I pray they heeded my warning and many others as well. This is unprecedented and I fear this is going to be extremely devastating for the region.

I certainly understand that you have to do what is necessary to protect your family. My ptayers to you and your family and please be safe!! Godspeed!

[xironman]

Has anyone seen Aric post recently? He's been as big a part of forecasting the evolution of this as anyone.

I see NNE movement but am guessing it will wobble back to near due north for a couple of hours before going NNE and NE for good as it is still a little too soon for steady NNE movement yet per models.

I assumed he was chasing, but keeping it quiet.

[FireRat]

Judging from that pic earlier showing the front just west of Louisiana, the storm should be turning by morning at the latest, going to be like steering a bowling ball though, such a beast of a storm!

It's closing in fast and the margin of error drops quick, most of those in the cone at present will likely get the eye/eyewall in the end IMO. NHC is really good with track in this timeframe

[northjaxpro]

Good morning Larry. Yeah I noticed the beginnings of the turn to the NNE. I think it has finally commenced.

[USTropics]

Recon is heading SW now, may get an attempt at NE quad punch:

[Condor]

Looks like we might get some recon from the NE quadrant

[FireRat]

be ready for impressive findings on the NE quad, Michael is a buzzsaw now!

[Buck]

Recon is heading SW now, may get an attempt at NE quad punch:

https://i.imgur.com/u6lIqVi.png

Oh boy, here goes.

[LarryWx]

Good morning Larry. Yeah I noticed the beginnings of the turn to the NNE. I think it has finally commenced.

Hey Jax. I think it is already hinting at coming back toward a due north movement for the time being. I think it is wobbling around.

[northjaxpro]

Larry, you are going to get some decent storm force winds as Michael passes through South Georgia early Thursday morning.

[FLeastcoast]

Has anyone seen Aric post recently? He's been as big a part of forecasting the evolution of this as anyone.

I see NNE movement but am guessing it will wobble back to near due north for a couple of hours before going NNE and NE for good as it is still a little too soon for steady NNE movement yet per models.

I assumed he was chasing, but keeping it quiet.

Aric is chasing. He is in the chat.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

[LarryWx]

Larry, you are going to get some decent storm force winds as Michael passes through South Georgia early Thursday morning.

I hope it isn't bad enough to cause widespread power outages! I bought extra ice to keep things cold longer just in case