ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2561 Postby seahawkjd » Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:22 pm

MacTavish wrote:Put an L in the UKMET's column.


What do you mean?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2562 Postby KWT » Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:24 pm

MacTavish wrote:Put an L in the UKMET's column.


UKMO has been better than the gfrecurve thus far, admittedly it has been too far south, but the GFS not so long ago took this out to sea at 65W.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2563 Postby chaser1 » Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:24 pm

MacTavish wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:
MacTavish wrote:

I know you really wanted to see some wind but.. god favors climatology.. watch the hebert boxes lol


Actually I no longer live in the state of Florida. And if you go by climatology then Florence will be going out to sea.


Wrong, many storms have made a US landfall from Florence's position. And yes it would literally take an act of god for a south florida landfall.


God must've been pretty bored back in '65 eh??? :roflmao:
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2564 Postby Blown Away » Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:25 pm

seahawkjd wrote:
MacTavish wrote:Put an L in the UKMET's column.


What do you mean?


Ukmet gets the big "L" for loss with Flo... :D
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2565 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:26 pm

MacTavish wrote:Put an L in the UKMET's column.


- Could you please provide some evidence regarding this statement? Last I checked, it hasn't made landfall yet.

- Regarding climatology, a track out to sea is heavily favored from its current location, even if some storms still have made landfall from there. Climatology favors an average.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2566 Postby seahawkjd » Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:27 pm

Blown Away wrote:
seahawkjd wrote:
MacTavish wrote:Put an L in the UKMET's column.


What do you mean?


Ukmet gets the big "L" for loss with Flo... :D


Ah. I somehow read that as Euro and got very confused. I must have spent too long staring at this board today.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2567 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:29 pm

seahawkjd wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
seahawkjd wrote:
What do you mean?


Ukmet gets the big "L" for loss with Flo... :D


Ah. I somehow read that as Euro and got very confused. I must have spent too long staring at this board today.


Weird, I saw it too.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2568 Postby MrJames » Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:30 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2569 Postby MacTavish » Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:31 pm

seahawkjd wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
seahawkjd wrote:
What do you mean?


Ukmet gets the big "L" for loss with Flo... :D


Ah. I somehow read that as Euro and got very confused. I must have spent too long staring at this board today.


I actually posted European at first but got the two mixed up. so you might have read it right lol
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2570 Postby Ken711 » Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:34 pm

Is Florence still following the NHC expected this track at this hour, and/or further west or south?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2571 Postby Blown Away » Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:34 pm

MrJames wrote:Image


Kinda suprised the 18z are not more east, not much adjustment during the day with all the models moving a little east.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2572 Postby Blinhart » Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:38 pm

supercane4867 wrote:18z HWRF is back to the idea of Flo bombing out to a strong CAT5.

Image


That's 207 MPH.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2573 Postby Hammy » Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:38 pm

FV3 GFS shifted a tad northeast, and looks like it's now directly between the Euro and GFS Op, so it seems like instead of an overall east or west trend, everything is lining up towards a more targeted location now.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2574 Postby Ken711 » Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:39 pm

Blown Away wrote:
MrJames wrote:Image


Kinda suprised the 18z are not more east, not much adjustment during the day with all the models moving a little east.


GFS was further west.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2575 Postby Blinhart » Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:41 pm

Blown Away wrote:Image
12z CMC/GEM...


So in 10 days it would be in Alexandria, La.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2576 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:42 pm

MrJames wrote:Image



Great! So we are coming into consensus that my house has the big "X" on it! Wonderful!
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2577 Postby meriland29 » Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:44 pm

Blinhart wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:18z HWRF is back to the idea of Flo bombing out to a strong CAT5.

Image


That's 207 MPH.



As crazy as that is, I would really doubt that high of wind speed.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2578 Postby Ken711 » Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:45 pm

Hammy wrote:FV3 GFS shifted a tad northeast, and looks like it's now directly between the Euro and GFS Op, so it seems like instead of an overall east or west trend, everything is lining up towards a more targeted location now.


So are the models begining to sense a weaker ridge and stronger Florence in the small moves north and east?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2579 Postby meriland29 » Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:46 pm

I have a question. Is the recurve highly determined by the upcoming strength of the storm (weaker = likely more westward, stronger = recurve sooner)?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2580 Postby BUD » Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:47 pm

WilmingtonSandbar wrote:
MrJames wrote:Image



Great! So we are coming into consensus that my house has the big "X" on it! Wonderful!


Hey!!!! I am right down the road from you!!!
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