ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[Ken711]

Great! So we are coming into consensus that my house has the big "X" on it! Wonderful!

I expect the models will move more north and east to the OBX in the next several runs.

[Hammy]

FV3 GFS shifted a tad northeast, and looks like it's now directly between the Euro and GFS Op, so it seems like instead of an overall east or west trend, everything is lining up towards a more targeted location now.

So are the models begining to sense a weaker ridge and stronger Florence in the small moves north and east?

It seems more like they're starting to have the same general picture of the ridge--the further south the models were earlier, the larger the jump northeast it seems like they're making, and the eastern ones (like the GFS) are trending west. We're down to about a 50-100 mile spread between models for the most part as far as a landfall point.

[KWT]

I have a question. Is the recurve highly determined by the upcoming strength of the storm (weaker = likely more westward, stronger = recurve sooner)?

I think we are getting closer to a consensus both on track and intensity for the most part, with a 3/4 into either of the Carolinas. Still room for manouver but the wiggle room is starting to shrink.

[Ken711]

FV3 GFS shifted a tad northeast, and looks like it's now directly between the Euro and GFS Op, so it seems like instead of an overall east or west trend, everything is lining up towards a more targeted location now.

So are the models begining to sense a weaker ridge and stronger Florence in the small moves north and east?

It seems more like they're starting to have the same general picture of the ridge--the further south the models were earlier, the larger the jump northeast it seems like they're making, and the eastern ones (like the GFS) are trending west. We're down to about a 50-100 mile spread between models for the most part as far as a landfall point.

Thanks. If Florence moves west longer than expected before gaining latitude and moving WNW how would that impact the track and landfall? Likewise, if it re-intesified faster moved WNW faster how would that affect landfall location?

[OuterBanker]

I am in deep prayer that all the models move offshore.

Because life as I know will change forever if I doesn't.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The HWRF image being posted is at the 850mb level and would not be representative of true wind speed (but still would be a Cat 5).

[FLeastcoast]

I am in deep prayer that all the models move offshore.

Because life as I know will change forever if I doesn't.

I will be praying for that to happen also. I went through Andrew..on the outskirts of Dade County...I know how you are feeling. Prayers for safety for you and those around you.

[Hammy]

The HWRF image being posted is at the 850mb level and would not be representative of true wind speed (but still would be a Cat 5).

Isn't it that the 850mb and surface wind difference is such that in effect the 850mb kts would essentially be the surface mph? I read something along those lines years ago as an easy difference calculation.

[meriland29]

It is also really important to pay attention to how/if it stays under the projected path for the next day or two...will really effect if it will be an OBX, hit SC/NC or miss entirely

[KWT]

The HWRF image being posted is at the 850mb level and would not be representative of true wind speed (but still would be a Cat 5).

Yeah but your still looking in the 145-155kts range, with gusts to 180. Which would probably make it one of the strongest ever canes in that area if it came off.

[Steve]

I am in deep prayer that all the models move offshore.

Because life as I know will change forever if I doesn't.

Too many of us know what you’re talking about. If the GFS coastal stall was to happen, all that rain and wind would take down many, many trees. Best to you and get everything done early.

[gatorcane]

I am in deep prayer that all the models move offshore.

Because life as I know will change forever if I doesn't.

All I can say is many of us felt the same way when models were plowing a powerful Irma up the SE Florida coastline even just 3 days out in what looked to be the storm of ages that would have changed the landscape and lives forever. Then the models started shifting west “at the last second” just enough to keep the core destructive winds out of metro SE Florida. Point is there is still time for shifting to happen. They can just shift east a bit more so it passes just offshore.

[jlauderdal]

For sure..it looked like a miami direct hit less than three days out, gfs had it offshore

I am in deep prayer that all the models move offshore.

Because life as I know will change forever if I doesn't.

All I can say is many of us felt the same way when models were plowing a powerful Irma up the SE Florida coastline even just 3 days out in what looked to be the storm of ages which would have surpasses Andrew in damages. Then the models started shifting west just enough to keep the core destructive winds out of metro SE Florida. There is still time for shifting to happen. They can just shift east a bit more so it passes just offshore.

[TheDreamTraveler]

This doesn't have most of the dropsonde data in it yet despite it saying 00z. Just wanted to say in case anyone gets confused.

[gatorcane]

Wow tight consensus

[Hammy]

Quite rare to see that much consensus five days out.

[Emmett_Brown]

Almost 6 days out...

[TheDreamTraveler]

Almost 6 days out...

The coast should start experiencing winds from Florence wednesday evening so it's 5 day out in terms of impacts.

Also the model guidance that was posted above doesn't have most of the dropsonde data in it yet since it uses 18z but changes its position.

[jdjaguar]

Almost 6 days out...

The coast should start experiencing winds from Florence wednesday evening so it's 5 day out in terms of impacts.

That would be 4 days out.

Sat-Sun
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[TheDreamTraveler]

Not sure if 18z FV3 GFS was posted but here's when it landfalls Florence.