ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[USTropics]

We'll get another pass or 2 before the 5am advisory. I'm assuming the blended data will support 943mb and 135 mph for now.

[NDG]

The sad part is that there's no indications of EWRs before landfall to weaken it. Windshear and dry air are no where close to it. Chances of Cat 4 landfall are increasing. IMO.

[xironman]

solid 942/943 mb readings:

https://i.imgur.com/D23eL0U.png

Pretty smooth all the way in, an EWRC seems unlikely

[northjaxpro]

This is one of these all-nighters tracking this monster. I am too nervous and worried about my family out in the region to sleep anyway.

[KWT]

The sad part is that there's no indications of EWRs before landfall to weaken it. Windshear and dry air are no where close to it. Chances of Cat 4 landfall are increasing. IMO.

Not even a hint, think it's likely to hold 115-120kts now all the way in...could well be the yet another us cat-4...

[NDG]

Saved radar loop:

[StruThiO]

Eye is warming

[EquusStorm]

Last few frames, eye has cleared out and become more symmetrical; going to sleep real quick but this feels like the most eerie night of tracking since Patricia. Hopefully this pulls a Dennis but not much time to do so

[xironman]

Radar shows the meso they went through to get the 121 SFMR

[PTPatrick]

I love when the weather folks at nws get cheeky. TAlly office has a graphic up that shows the cat 4s that have hit the area to make a point...it’s blank...cuz there isn’t one on record. https://www.weather.gov/tae//

[KWT]

Eye is warming

Yes it is and a new burst of convection forming In the eastern eyewall, maybe one las burst of strengthening?

I can't see this pulling a Dennis/lili/opal now..not even a hint of that.

[northjaxpro]

He is slowing forward speed just a tad and I continue to see very subtle signs of NNE nudging . iThink wr may be seeing the beginning of the turn.

[chaser1]

Eye fully clearing out. Looks like a net motion of about 20 degrees over last couple hours. I'm hitting the sack; God knows what i'll wake up to approaching the coast?!! 'Nite y'all.

[NDG]

The high octane fuel feeding into Michael, 85 degs in Key West at 3 AM, dewpoints into the upper 70s all across southern FL

Conditions at: KEYW observed 10 October 2018 06:53 UTC
Temperature: 29.4°C (85°F)
Dewpoint: 25.0°C (77°F) [RH = 77%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.83 inches Hg (1010.2 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 1010.1 mb]
Winds: from the S (170 degrees) at 18 MPH (16 knots; 8.3 m/s)
gusting to 26 MPH (23 knots; 12.0 m/s)
Visibility: 10 or more miles (16+ km)
Ceiling: at least 12,000 feet AGL
Clouds: sky clear below 12,000 feet AGL
Present Weather: automated observation with no human augmentation;
there may or may not be significant weather present at this time
KEYW 100653Z AUTO 17016G23KT 10SM CLR 29/25 A2983 RMK AO2 SLP101 T02940250

[galaxy401]

People in Michael’s path are probably going to have today the day they will never forget. Very scary situation now...We’ll see what the next day brings!

[USTropics]

Indeed it looks like a repeat of the convective burst we saw earlier, hot tower has formed on the eastern eyewall, and lightning has again increased:

[dukeblue219]

Dropsondes are in. NE quad splashed at 116kt instantaneous wind, peak was 133kt not far up. The eye sonde splashed at 945mb in 20kt of wind.

[KWT]

:uarrow: Radar shows the meso they went through to get the 121 SFMR

Dropsond found 116kts winds in the NE eyewall, they may up winds as its close and still clearly strengthening, but verbatim NHC current estimates of 115kts is ok still.

[northjaxpro]

Very impressive hot tower in eastern eyewall. Coldest tops I have seen yet. This is just absolutely insane!

[xironman]

:uarrow: Radar shows the meso they went through to get the 121 SFMR

Dropsond found 116kts winds in the NE eyewall, they may up winds as its close and still clearly strengthening, but verbatim NHC current estimates of 115kts is ok still.

They tend to like the SFMR since it measures speed over time, and that Dropsonde hit the water about ten miles from where they got the reading.