ATL: ISAAC - Models

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Wow! 180mph with a 917mb min pressure at 120 hours.

[Kazmit]

Wow! 180mph with a 917mb min pressure at 120 hours.

While I do think that it could become a major hurricane, I think this goes overboard with the intensity. Are the conditions really that favorable?

[supercane4867]

What does HWRF see as very favorable to be that strong?

The outflow pattern in HWRF resembles last year's Jose. It has Isaac developing a very strong poleward channel enhanced by subtropical jet.

18z HWRF brings pressure down to 917mb at day 5. Windspeed may well exceed CAT5 threshold if that verifies

[Spacecoast]

12z big picture...

[jlauderdal]

Latest CMC doesn't turn it away before impacting the islands. It has it scraping them, then heading out to sea.

http://i64.tinypic.com/34ig28z.png

The CMC has gone from bad to really really bad as the season has gone, why even bother with it.

Keeps some wishcasters in the game

[Blinhart]

What does HWRF see as very favorable to be that strong?

That is going in between 2 high shear areas and heading to a very low shear area. Also very hot waters.

[sphelps8681]

So a huge change from previous GFS runs is that the open wave (Isaac) gains latitude and heads towards the Yucatan, instead of burying itself in Honduras. If you play the model run, you can see it heading in that direction after clipping Jamaica.

So more like Harvey.

You are not suppose to say the H word!! LOL.

[Gustywind]

What does HWRF see as very favorable to be that strong?

I Wonder that too, to bomb like that , waouw . Is the environment of low shear and over warm sea surface temperatures is overestimated or... not?!

[MetroMike]

What does HWRF see as very favorable to be that strong?

I Wonder that too, to bomb like that , waouw . Is the environment of low shear and over warm sea surface temperatures is overestimated or... not?!

Could be it is seeing less shear in the Carribian than other models.
Shear forecasts are not known to be so accurate.

[AubreyStorm]

CMC

[SoupBone]

GFS sends it due north to central Cuba after hitting Jamaica (hour 180-192)! Run not done yet.

So that's why the NHC wrote that.

[bamajammer4eva]

GFS sends it due north to central Cuba after hitting Jamaica (hour 180-192)! Run not done yet.

So that's why the NHC wrote that.

Looks to me like it goes from Jamaica to the Yucatan Channel before dissipating this run

[AubreyStorm]

Puerto Rico we HAVE a problem.
Ohh no Cycloneye

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The euro and gfs in the long range (day 10) both have troughing over the GOM, this would pull whatever Isaac is into the GOM at that time if Isaac is stronger than forecasted. A weak Isaac plows into the Yucatán, but a stronger Isaac feels the influence of the trough or in the case of euro- the remnants of Florence over the gulf and gets pulled up in there. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e4 ... e0266b.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cf ... 60d5a7.png

[bamajammer4eva]

More gfs ensemble members hold onto Isaac through Saturday Night.Here is the trend since the 06z run

[MississippiWx]

More gfs ensemble members hold onto Isaac through Saturday Night.Here is the trend since the 06z run

Good catch. That's a pretty significant increase.

[Nimbus]

Maybe some of the models are now factoring in the smaller eye feature?
Makes a difference but don't know if they even have a program variable for that.

[SoupBone]

Maybe the UKMET, CMC, and HWRF were onto something.

[NDG]

https://s22.postimg.cc/x6tuzi05t/storm_09_1.gif

Maybe the UKMET, CMC, and HWRF were onto something.

Yeap, perhaps they are up to something with the GFS now wanting to join them.

[Kazmit]

12z GFS sucks it poleward through the Greater Antilles.