ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blinhart]

I definitely don’t see this hitting as a cat 5. There is a reason why a cat 5 has never hit there before. It’s because the atmospheric and oceanic conditions don’t support it. Heck even Cat 4’s are rare in that area

I have seen plenty of news articles stating that there is a chance of this coming in as Cat 5, Cat 4 is more likely though.

Things have changed, hence the NHC also calling for a lowered intensity forecast as well now

120 MPH is a high end Cat 3, and wouldn't take much for it to be a Cat 4.

[robbielyn]

Would someone kindly give me a link of the hurricane visible satellite a close up that loops but not the goes 16. thank you oh that also shows lat and long thanks again

[Hurricaneman]

If you tuned out of the model thread after the Euro appeared to be making landfall near Wilmington you might want to check back again. It gets weird at day 4-5, backing the storm away without making landfall, then heading on down towards the Savannah-to-Charleston region before landfalling. As always, everyone in the region needs to be watching this storm closely.

Honestly if this doesn’t make landfall the first try there’s no telling where it would make landfall, the Euro blended in puts everyone from OBX to some portions of Florida at risk as I would think several ensemble members end up down there

[GCANE]

Poleward Outflow Channel kicking in.
Nice ventilation on the north canopy.
ULL on the upper right corner is moving south into a better location to enhance ventilation.
BTW, I like those horizontal lightning strikes.

[FLeastcoast]

NHC has her down to CAT 3 at landfall. (still devastating, but not "as" devastating)

3 days from landfall, the NHC had Harvey forecast to hit as a tropical storm, not ever reaching hurricane status, much less a cat 4. Just saying, things change. Better to be prepared for the worst and hope for the best. I did a terrible job planning for Harvey and paid for it. Please, everyone in the potential path, heed the warnings. Don't end up having to be rescued like me, scared out of your mind. Get out. Tropical rains for days on end is nothing to play around with.

From the 4pm update 8/23/17:

INIT 23/2100Z 21.6N 92.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 22.4N 93.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 23.8N 93.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 25.1N 95.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 26.4N 96.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 28.6N 97.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/1800Z 29.0N 97.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 28/1800Z 29.0N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

point taken. forecasts do change, and storms can be unpredictable.

Aric is correct with his comment(s).

I seriously need to move out of this area. I am so tired of living on edge every hurricane season.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Would someone kindly give me a link of the hurricane visible satellite a close up that loops but not the goes 16. thank you oh that also shows lat and long thanks again

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[robbielyn]

Would someone kindly give me a link of the hurricane visible satellite a close up that loops but not the goes 16. thank you oh that also shows lat and long thanks again

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

thank you so much

[sittingduck]

Would someone kindly give me a link of the hurricane visible satellite a close up that loops but not the goes 16. thank you oh that also shows lat and long thanks again

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floate ... -long.html
Just click select LATLON to see the lines

[supercane4867]

18z best track at 120kt

[Steve]

No, she's not 'struggling'. She's getting ready to devastate my state.

NHC has her down to CAT 3 at landfall. (still devastating, but not "as" devastating)

This is a prime example of how the NHC focusing on the Saffir-Simpson scale can have negative impact on the public safety. With the focus on categories by wind the public who will not read the details see the change from Cat 4 to Cat 3 and start to become complacent.....

Not to be the bearer of bad news, but if people become complacent because they see a 3 instead of a 4 that's going to affect them, it's simply going to confirm and affirm that many Americans are bone-headedly stupid. I'm sure that's obvious to everyone who is from here or lives here and also plainly obvious to anyone who lives outside the country. But you can't blame anyone for stupid decisions other than those who make them. JMO

[GCANE]

Would someone kindly give me a link of the hurricane visible satellite a close up that loops but not the goes 16. thank you oh that also shows lat and long thanks again

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

You can select GOES17 on this one under Satellite and select Visible or whatever other channels you like.
Zoom in close or far.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

[HurricaneFrances04]

I wonder if we'll see watches go up along the Georgia coast, considering some of the latest model runs.

[WAcyclone]

I wonder why recon went so far away from the center before returning. I almost thought they were leaving the storm. Perhaps for a dropsonde on the periphery of the circulation?

*EDIT: I guess they are actually leaving after just one pass...

I think this may have been the reason for their unusual flight path (and low altitude) after leaving the storm:

 https://twitter.com/GBlack_22/status/1039581792137871360




You can actually see they performed multiple low-altitude loops at 28.4°N, 71.1°W so that's where the sailboat probably was located:

[Hammy]

Would this be a good time to postpone the new roof going on?

[pgoss11]

This has got to be a nightmare for the NHC. How do you set the cone for a stalling and slow moving hurricane that doesn't make landfall for days.

[supercane4867]

[artist]

Charleston and Savannah nws hurricane statement
https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx. ... n=-81.0912

[robbielyn]

Would someone kindly give me a link of the hurricane visible satellite a close up that loops but not the goes 16. thank you oh that also shows lat and long thanks again

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

thank you so much

i love this but i would like one that shows at least the eastern half of the us so i can long track it. but decent zoom with the long and latitude. sorry don’t mean to be picky. goes 13 was easier for me. i honestly haven’t read how to use the goes16 yet.

[tolakram]

[jlauderdal]

This has got to be a nightmare for the NHC. How do you set the cone for a stalling and slow moving hurricane that doesn't make landfall for days.

easy, the cone is set by statistics so you make a track and the rest is math...please see this link for further info ..what we will see is instead of the "cone", it will look more like a circle, wait and watch how this plays out as its going to be odd
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml