ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[storm4u]

Guess the data put into the 0z models worked!

[TheDreamTraveler]

Guess the data put into the 0z models worked!

There's not much dropsonde data in it yet. We'll know more in a few hours.

[ronjon]

Models seem to be focusing on the SC-NC line area. I think the track forecast may settle in now as the system essentially rounds the ridge. The lack of any troughs and what looks like an extremely powerful storm may make the track forecast fairly straight forward from this point forward. This could be an epic storm like Hugo.

[gatorcane]

Guess the data put into the 0z models worked!

There's not much dropsonde data in it yet. We'll know more in a few hours.

Not sure how we go from a large spread to that consensus so quickly. They had to have injected some data into these models:

[GeneratorPower]

Guess the data put into the 0z models worked!

There's not much dropsonde data in it yet. We'll know more in a few hours.

Not sure how we go from a large spread to that consensus so quickly. They had to have injected some data into these models:

https://s8.postimg.cc/ghjwzc9t1/storm_06.gif

That is remarkable consensus. However, there are so many variables that at day 6, it’s hard to believe it will verify exactly.

[Steve]

NAM doesn’t have that much range into the Atlantic, and the 12km only goes out 84 hours. But that’s only 1.5/days before landfall. That should be the first model that goes out more than a day to show what the soundings show. With the offshore sampling and also the continental balloons, check it out at 500mb (10000 ft). The last run had a building ridge near Quebec toward the end of the run. That led to WNW motion. I think it was running along the 591dm height line.

We will see what it does pretty soon. Obligatory it’s the NAM.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0812&fh=90

[TheDreamTraveler]

FV3 GFS rainfall totals are pretty nuts too

[tolakram]

Not sure how we go from a large spread to that consensus so quickly. They had to have injected some data into these models:

[ img]https://s8.postimg.cc/ghjwzc9t1/storm_06.gif[/img]

I'll feel better once the 0Z runs are over. The 0Z and 12Z runs of the euro about 5 days out are infamous for making a correction, at least in my memory.

[toad strangler]

Guess the data put into the 0z models worked!

There's not much dropsonde data in it yet. We'll know more in a few hours.

Not sure how we go from a large spread to that consensus so quickly. They had to have injected some data into these models:

Agree. That “consensus” track can shift south or east all at once. It’s way too early for that definitive language.

[Emmett_Brown]

There's not much dropsonde data in it yet. We'll know more in a few hours.

Not sure how we go from a large spread to that consensus so quickly. They had to have injected some data into these models:

Agree. That “consensus” track can shift south or east all at once. It’s way too early for that definitive language.

Good point. Just one look at the 12z Euro ensemble shows that there is still some spread, albeit narrowing.

[Steve]

Not much difference yet with the NAMs upper air pattern at 36 hours. The ridge looks slightly stronger and the front from the Great Lakes to Texas is a hair farther back. Otherwise not much difference yet. The height lines aren’t exact between the runs but they are similar so far. 591 isn’t yet on the map at 36 hours.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0900&fh=36

[MGC]

Did the data from both of today's flights get into the 18Z or 0Z models? Wow that 18Z GFS run would totally destroy the outerbanks.....MGC

[tolakram]

Did the data from both of today's flights get into the 18Z or 0Z models? Wow that 18Z GFS run would totally destroy the outerbanks.....MGC

0Z is our best guess. Not sure there is any actual confirmation.

[hurricaneCW]

There's probably some room for shifts but unless there's a drastic change in the overall pattern, then I can't see more than a 50 mile change from that 5 day track.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Did the data from both of today's flights get into the 18Z or 0Z models? Wow that 18Z GFS run would totally destroy the outerbanks.....MGC

0Z is our best guess. Not sure there is any actual confirmation.

Levi Cowan tweeted out that the dropsonde data would be in 0z. So we should be good to go in a few hours.

[dukeblue219]

There's probably some room for shifts but unless there's a drastic change in the overall pattern, then I can't see more than a 50 mile change from that 5 day track.

You know, the fact that we can even consider saying that shows how modelling has changed in the last decade-plus.

[SFLcane]

Hmmm consensus tonight on the Carolinas BUT I’am willing to bet in 2-3 days worth time these models will hopefully trend offshore or out to sea. Still so much time time for this to change

[PandaCitrus]

Or possibly further north into Virginia, Delmarva peninsula, North East. A couple days ago there were a lot of solutions further north. Out to Sea isn't the only possibility here for a change.

[drewschmaltz]

There's probably some room for shifts but unless there's a drastic change in the overall pattern, then I can't see more than a 50 mile change from that 5 day track.

I can see why you say that especially since the pattern is somewhat simple and the models are starting to agree. I just can't help but wonder what happens if Flo stays west just a little longer than expected. The angle she starts taking the ridge at will be so different.

I do tend to wishcast to Florida. I am guilty of that. I'll be convinced as long as Flo doesn't miss 10/0600Z 25.0N 58.3W forecast point to the south.

[p1nheadlarry]

The HWRF image being posted is at the 850mb level and would not be representative of true wind speed (but still would be a Cat 5).

Yeah but your still looking in the 145-155kts range, with gusts to 180. Which would probably make it one of the strongest ever canes in that area if it came off.

Not one of, THE strongest. 1899 holds the record at 105 kts.