ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Pressure 945mb, surface winds 123 knots.

URNT12 KNHC 100750
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 10/07:25:40Z
B. 28.08 deg N 086.54 deg W
C. 700 mb 2619 m
D. 945 mb
E. 110 deg 20 kt
F. OPEN SW
G. C20
H. 123 kt
I. 046 deg 8 nm 07:23:00Z
J. 129 deg 124 kt
K. 046 deg 12 nm 07:22:00Z
L. 92 kt
M. 230 deg 10 nm 07:28:30Z
N. 298 deg 109 kt
O. 230 deg 14 nm 07:29:30Z
P. 11 C / 3053 m
Q. 17 C / 3057 m
R. 15 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF306 1314A MICHAEL OB 10
MAX FL WIND 136 KT 120 / 14 NM 05:44:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 18 C 230 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[HDGator]

Very impressive hot tower in eastern eyewall. Coldest tops I have seen yet. This is just absolutely insane!

The lightning popping in the eyewall in the radar feed I have is insane. Where the hell does Michael think he's going?
It looks like the eye continues to tighten on radar.

[NDG]

Pressure should be more like at least 944mb because the dropsonde reported 20 knot winds at surface.

[northjaxpro]

Very impressive hot tower in eastern eyewall. Coldest tops I have seen yet. This is just absolutely insane!

The lightning popping in the eyewall in the radar feed I have is insane. Where the hell does Michael think he's going?
It looks like the eye continues to tighten on radar.

That is because the inner core is tightening again. This new convective burst curtently I think will help to completely close of the eyewall I believe for the next Recon pass.

[KWT]

:uarrow: Radar shows the meso they went through to get the 121 SFMR

Dropsond found 116kts winds in the NE eyewall, they may up winds as its close and still clearly strengthening, but verbatim NHC current estimates of 115kts is ok still.

They tend to like the SFMR since it measures speed over time, and that Dropsonde hit the water about ten miles from where they got the reading.

I thought I heard there have been a few questions raised with SFMR due to what it was finding in Irma/Maria and it was too high, so this season they are more cautious with it.

Either way still clearly strengthening, could see 120kts just based on that alone and the SFMR finding.

[HDGator]

Very impressive hot tower in eastern eyewall. Coldest tops I have seen yet. This is just absolutely insane!

The lightning popping in the eyewall in the radar feed I have is insane. Where the hell does Michael think he's going?
It looks like the eye continues to tighten on radar.

That is becuade the inner core is tightening again. This new convective burst curtently I think will help to completely close of the eyewall I believe for the next Recon pass.

It appears that Michael doesn't care whether his eyewall is closed; he's going to make history anyways.

[KWT]

Very impressive hot tower in eastern eyewall. Coldest tops I have seen yet. This is just absolutely insane!

The lightning popping in the eyewall in the radar feed I have is insane. Where the hell does Michael think he's going?
It looks like the eye continues to tighten on radar.

That is because the inner core is tightening again. This new convective burst curtently I think will help to completely close of the eyewall I believe for the next Recon pass.

Gotta think we are still seeing some strengthening at the moment, it's one of the best land falling inner cores I have seen in this part of the basin.

Probably going to be 120kts officially soon.

[MississippiWx]

Michael’s eye is warming and clearing which is just the cream on top. This might be what pushes this towards Category 5.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, unfortunately, no doubt in my mind that Michael is still in a intensification stage. I would not be shocked to see this cyclone make a run at Cat 5. Just a terrible situation unfolding

[NDG]

At this rate 930s mb pressure is looking very likely over the next few hours.

[southerngale]

 https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/1049928390495666176

[NDG]

If Michael makes landfall as a Cat 4 I will not be surprised if FL elections are going to be suspended until the area gets back to close to normal.

[Hurrilurker]

I thought those models showing 932 at landfall earlier today were a little nutty but maybe not!

[Hammy]

Looks like it's moving almost straight NNE. Would probably go right over the radar site if it kept the motion all the way in.

[PTPatrick]

Currently the surges forecast of 9-13 are starting to seem a tad on the low side. Not as familiar with the topagraohy of the area but purely from a record standpoint, Eloise is said to have produced 18 ft just a bit west of Michaels landfall point, and Kate produced 9 at Cape San Blas, Elena produced 9 at apilachicola, opal around 14 ft ...If the landfall occurs say, right at PCB I imagine there would be some areas that could exceed 13 pretty easily. If it hits closer to Mexico beach or port st Joe as a cat 4, 13 is almost a safe bet. Not really any good comparable storms though so hard to say. Just that 13 feels low for a cat 4 anywhere on the northern gulf coast.

I will say if there is any silver lining it’s that the areal extent of the hurricane force winds from the center is still not has big as some of the gulfs bigger surge producers.

[KWT]

Surge already coming in quite widely, sadly there is a lot worse to come yet as well. Thinking this is going to be one of thos historic storms like a Camille, 35 keys and Andrew. Hope not, but looking that way now sadly...

[NDG]

Currently the surges forecast of 9-13 are starting to seem a tad on the low side. Not as familiar with the topagraohy of the area but purely from a record standpoint, Eloise is said to have produced 18 ft just a bit west of Michaels landfall point, and Kate produced 9 at Cape San Blas, Elena produced 9 at apilachicola, opal around 14 ft ...If the landfall occurs say, right at PCB I imagine there would be some areas that could exceed 13 pretty easily. If it hits closer to Mexico beach or port st Joe as a cat 4, 13 is almost a safe bet. Not really any good comparable storms though so hard to say. Just that 13 feels low for a cat 4 anywhere on the northern gulf coast.

I will say if there is any silver lining it’s that the areal extent of the hurricane force winds from the center is still not has big as some of the gulfs bigger surge producers.

 https://twitter.com/ClarkEvansWx/status/1049850164800700417

[LarryWx]

OK, now I think a final change to NNE general motion is about to commence. It had come back to due north for a bit.

[Condor]

OK, now I think a final change to NNE general motion is about to commence. It had come back to due north for a bit.

Didn't he wobble to the west ?

[AJC3]

Man, If Jason Kelley (RIP) was still around and at WJHG, he'd be jazzed to be working this one. I'm sure he's looking down in awe at this beast.