ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[p1nheadlarry]

Hmmm consensus tonight on the Carolinas BUT I’am willing to bet in 2-3 days worth time these models will hopefully trend offshore or out to sea. Still so much time time for this to change

Models are honing in but as someone above mentioned, 0z will have both dropsonde and G-IV data. Gut tells me offshore is still a fair chance.

[cheezyWXguy]

Hmmm consensus tonight on the Carolinas BUT I’am willing to bet in 2-3 days worth time these models will hopefully trend offshore or out to sea. Still so much time time for this to change

Since nothing in weather is ever a certainty, there is still that chance and some ensemble members reflect that. But considering how much the consensus has tightened today, I wouldn't hold my breath. This situation is getting to the point where people on the east coast need to be taking this seriously, making preparations, and hopefully being pleasantly surprised if the models shift back offshore.

[Steve]

NAM coming in a bit stronger with Florence than 18z. Upper air pattern is not appreciably different though the ridges haven’t joined across Maine yet in 00z as they had for 18z. It’s a slight difference but it’s still high pressure so it’s not like there is some kind of an alleyway.
18z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0818&fh=90

00z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0900&fh=84

[edu2703]

[toad strangler]

Hmmm consensus tonight on the Carolinas BUT I’am willing to bet in 2-3 days worth time these models will hopefully trend offshore or out to sea. Still so much time time for this to change

Models are honing in but as someone above mentioned, 0z will have both dropsonde and G-IV data. Gut tells me offshore is still a fair chance.

OR

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1038611733328343041





Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits

#Florence has appeared to move just a hair south of due west during the last few hours. Any delay before the storm begins to gain latitude will be watched closely. Most afternoon models expected no further loss of latitude after this point.

10:15 PM - Sep 8, 2018

[cheezyWXguy]

NAM coming in a bit stronger with Florence than 18z. Upper air pattern is not appreciably different though the ridges haven’t joined across Maine yet in 00z as they had for 18z. It’s a slight difference but it’s still high pressure so it’s not like there is some kind of an alleyway.
18z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0818&fh=90

00z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0818&fh=90

I did notice that. Florence is a bit stronger, and a little further wnw through most of the run. The high looks a little different but not much, probably resulting in a similar landfall location and angle of approach to the previous run. That said, if the high is a little weaker, I wonder if that would affect the angle of approach at all.

[MetroMike]

At this point as we see some of the model guidance lining up. It is far to early to say a little jog 50 miles or so all we will get from this.
Intensity forecasts are still an inexact science. It can vary widely as we know.
So interests from North Florida up the the Carolina's need to be aware as the NHC just mentioned at 11:00.

[Steve]

NHC has it Cape Fear/Southport/Kure Beach Thursday Cat 4. That’s pretty close to the early cycle guidance a few pages back. The intensity modeling should get interesting early week. NHC calls for strong intensification to begin 12-24 hours. They show peak intensity prior to landfall, but it’s hard sometimes for a MH to maintain peak or close to peak status more than a couple of days. Between dry air intrusions and eyewall replacement cycles, there will be fluctuation. Ideally Florence comes in during a weaker point in its evolution. NHC did note a slowdown near landfall and potential steering collapse so we will have to look to see if the 00z models agree.

[meriland29]

She looks to be wrapping around, losing all that stubborn dry air that was keeping her at bay. Will be interesting to see if she also keeps her slight SW trend instead of due west of WNW as is and had been anticipated.

[tarheelprogrammer]

ICON looks like it has weaker ridging. Maybe OTS?

Hopefully the start of a beautiful trend my friends.

[lando]

Bummer... someone in the discord chat just mentioned the data from Gonzo won’t be in the 00z suite

[p1nheadlarry]

NHC has it Cape Fear/Southport/Kure Beach Thursday Cat 4. That’s pretty close to the early cycle guidance a few pages back. The intensity modeling should get interesting early week. NHC calls for strong intensification to begin 12-24 hours. They show peak intensity prior to landfall, but it’s hard sometimes for a MH to maintain peak or close to peak status more than a couple of days. Between dry air intrusions and eyewall replacement cycles, there will be fluctuation. Ideally Florence comes in during a weaker point in its evolution. NHC did note a slowdown near landfall and potential steering collapse so we will have to look to see if the 00z models agree.

If that slowdown occurs before a landfalling trajectory, ouch. If Hugo can pick up steam flying over the gulf stream, imagine what something a third of that could do....slower yet not so slow as to upwell too much cooler water (and near the shelf so wouldn't be too much anyway)

[meriland29]

ICON looks like it has weaker ridging. Maybe OTS?

Unlikely. The ridging is supposed to build substantially in a few days...

[TheDreamTraveler]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1038629383005765632

[meriland29]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1038629383005765632

But would that much intensity keep her offshore?

[Blown Away]

00z GFS Initialized... Let's see if anything changes... Same through 18 hrs...

[Ken711]

NHC has it Cape Fear/Southport/Kure Beach Thursday Cat 4. That’s pretty close to the early cycle guidance a few pages back. The intensity modeling should get interesting early week. NHC calls for strong intensification to begin 12-24 hours. They show peak intensity prior to landfall, but it’s hard sometimes for a MH to maintain peak or close to peak status more than a couple of days. Between dry air intrusions and eyewall replacement cycles, there will be fluctuation. Ideally Florence comes in during a weaker point in its evolution. NHC did note a slowdown near landfall and potential steering collapse so we will have to look to see if the 00z models agree.

Is that why the drop to 130 MPH at 120 hrs from 145 MPH at 96 hours in their forecast.

[Blown Away]

00z GFS... 24 hrs... Slightly SE of 18z...

[tarheelprogrammer]

00z GFS... 24 hrs... Slightly SE of 18z...

SE should cause it to stay offshore slightly more down stream.

[meriland29]

IMO..the longer she takes to get her act together, the more likely she will strengthen the most, closer to the states..instead of weakening