ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[southerngale]

140mph

[wx98]

Up to 140 mph and down to 943 mbar at the new advisory. Good morning Panhandle, watch out.

[NDG]

The nose of the subtropical jet just ahead of the mid level trough is still a good 250 miles to the west of Michael's core, by the time it starts getting to it is going to be well inland, unfortunately.

[LarryWx]

OK, now I think a final change to NNE general motion is about to commence. It had come back to due north for a bit.

Didn't he wobble to the west ?

I think he wobbled NNW. But that appears to be done for good.
SSTs to be crossed are still mid summerish bathtub warm 84F/29C:

28.8N 86.0W 80 84 90/ 39/ 45 994.7 24/14 18/14
PANAMA CITY BEAC 78 84 100/ 11/ 18 1005.0F

[KWT]

140mph

Amazing hurricane, almost certain this is going to come in as a category 4 now, no hints of any weakening either in terms of presentation so wouldn't rule out even more strengthening yet.

[JtSmarts]

Michael is still projected to be a 75 mph hurricane near 32.1N 83.8W just north of Vienna, GA.

[PavelGaborik10]

Absolute freak of a storm. Just wow.

[northjaxpro]

Wow!! Just an incredible but deadly cyclone! This is so surreal!!

[Frank P]

OK, now I think a final change to NNE general motion is about to commence. It had come back to due north for a bit.

Didn't he wobble to the west ?

I think he wobbled NNW. But that appears to be done for good.
SSTs to be crossed are still mid summerish bathtub warm 84F/29C:

28.8N 86.0W 80 84 90/ 39/ 45 994.7 24/14 18/14
PANAMA CITY BEAC 78 84 100/ 11/ 18 1005.0F

Drifted left of the track, if he doesn’t correct might come in a little left of forecast track
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[NDG]

From the latest NHC forecast discussion, 145 mph at landfall.

The new intensity forecast
has been nudged upward at the landfall time based on current
trends.

[USTropics]

Currently has been tracking just ever so slightly west of the forecast track:

[Condor]

Anybody have a link to a decent radar?

[NDG]

Didn't he wobble to the west ?

I think he wobbled NNW. But that appears to be done for good.
SSTs to be crossed are still mid summerish bathtub warm 84F/29C:

28.8N 86.0W 80 84 90/ 39/ 45 994.7 24/14 18/14
PANAMA CITY BEAC 78 84 100/ 11/ 18 1005.0F

Drifted left of the track, if he doesn’t correct might come in a little left of forecast track
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

Land friction as it gets closer to the coast should start making it take a more right turn.

[USTropics]

Anybody have a link to a decent radar?

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions
https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/fl/red-bay/evx/?region=pie

[southerngale]

Being from Texas, I don't have that many friends from Florida on Facebook, Twitter, etc., but from what I've even seen on there as well as from news articles, interviews, etc., I fear that a lot of people didn't evacuate. I'm just praying they make it out of this ok. I don't believe many of them realize the beast which is about to be unleashed upon them. It's unsettling...

[tolakram]

[NDG]

SE eyewall and eye.

085930 2818N 08614W 6967 02810 9645 +113 +084 200123 127 096 009 00
090000 2819N 08615W 6970 02763 9594 +115 +085 200129 130 100 017 00
090030 2821N 08617W 6960 02730 9529 +133 +090 205117 130 108 011 00
090100 2822N 08619W 6987 02652 9471 +157 //// 199085 110 105 006 01
090130 2823N 08620W 6957 02666 9425 +156 +143 199053 070 089 003 03
090200 2824N 08622W 6973 02631 9417 +155 +129 202035 044 051 002 00
090230 2824N 08624W 6966 02636 9423 +139 +124 204023 029 031 001 03
090300 2825N 08626W 6972 02620 9404 +153 +125 206018 021 030 001 00
090330 2825N 08628W 6961 02630 9383 +174 +125 198013 014 029 000 00
090400 2826N 08630W 6971 02621 9384 +175 +125 252005 013 027 000 03
090430 2827N 08631W 6966 02628 9378 +183 +125 005016 022 025 000 00
090500 2828N 08633W 6965 02638 9383 +189 +112 017040 048 035 001 03

[NDG]

Pressure continues to drop, looks at least around 939mb.

[Clearcloudz]

[KWT]

Wow extrap pressure downtown 938mbs so still strengthening. Also even NW eyewall now showing 105+ knots and SE eyewall still pumping out massive FL winds, upto 130kts!