ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[chaser1]

[quote="TheDreamTraveler"][/quote]

That's the prior 18Z map, not the new 0Z (still not out yet)

[TheDreamTraveler]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1038631645765689344





Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
Just shy of 40 dropsondes were assimilated into the 0Z GFS. Some of these are from near #Florence, and some are from near #Olivia.

11:34 PM - Sep 8, 2018

[cheezyWXguy]

NHC has it Cape Fear/Southport/Kure Beach Thursday Cat 4. That’s pretty close to the early cycle guidance a few pages back. The intensity modeling should get interesting early week. NHC calls for strong intensification to begin 12-24 hours. They show peak intensity prior to landfall, but it’s hard sometimes for a MH to maintain peak or close to peak status more than a couple of days. Between dry air intrusions and eyewall replacement cycles, there will be fluctuation. Ideally Florence comes in during a weaker point in its evolution. NHC did note a slowdown near landfall and potential steering collapse so we will have to look to see if the 00z models agree.

Is that why the drop to 130 MPH at 120 hrs from 145 MPH at 96 hours in their forecast.

The decrease in windspeed in the forecast likely has more to do with the effects of land interaction at a slow speed, as opposed to internal fluctuations. As Florence gets stronger, they'll account for those structural changes more in their forecast. Florence's slow speed at landfall will be a double-edged sword. It could mean more time over water to strengthen, but it could also mean weakening upon impact, since it will be more likely to ingest dry continental air from land. What is certain though, is that if it makes landfall at a speed that slow, surge and especially rainfall are going to be enhanced.

[Blown Away]

00z GFS... 36 hrs. Just SE of 18z... Ridge appears weaker...

[Blown Away]

00z GFS... 54 hrs. Still SE of 18z...

[AutoPenalti]

Ridge looks CONSIDERABLY weaker.

[Blown Away]

00z GFS... 60 hrs... ESE of 18z...

[Ken711]

Ridge looks CONSIDERABLY weaker.

The saving grace for a possible OTS path I hope the Euro sees as well.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Yeah the ridge doesn't extend out as far as 18z so far...

[SFLcane]

I don’t see any change for the 18z gfs run it’s already heading wnw at 66hrs

[Steve]

NHC has it Cape Fear/Southport/Kure Beach Thursday Cat 4. That’s pretty close to the early cycle guidance a few pages back. The intensity modeling should get interesting early week. NHC calls for strong intensification to begin 12-24 hours. They show peak intensity prior to landfall, but it’s hard sometimes for a MH to maintain peak or close to peak status more than a couple of days. Between dry air intrusions and eyewall replacement cycles, there will be fluctuation. Ideally Florence comes in during a weaker point in its evolution. NHC did note a slowdown near landfall and potential steering collapse so we will have to look to see if the 00z models agree.

Is that why the drop to 130 MPH at 120 hrs from 145 MPH at 96 hours in their forecast.

They take everything into consideration because they are the best there is. They think it’s going to ramp up over the next 3 days and reach peak in 72 hours which it maintains through 96. We will have to wait for future forecast discussions to see how it shakes out. Could be some shear, erc’s, dry air or whatever. Still looks real ugly.

[PTrackerLA]

This is going to be interesting. Ridge looks displaced a bit east from the 18z and Florence is a touch east as well at 72hrs...

[Blown Away]

00z GFS... 84 hrs... Just E of 18z...

[TheDreamTraveler]

Despite the ridge and florence being a little bit east this run looks very alike to the past GFS runs and euro runs. So far not that much of a difference even with all the new data added. But maybe now we can hone in on a more accurate landfall. Or if it decides to go OTS.

[bamajammer4eva]

591 line has actually trended west and south over past 3 runs. Extended to eastern NC before now into eastern SC

[LarryWx]

Based on the maps out so far, it looks to me with Flo slightly east of its 18Z gfs position that she’ll more than likely end up a little east later in the track vs the 18Z. Let’s see.

[Blown Away]

00z GFS... 90 hrs... Decent E shift from 18z...

[Blinhart]

There's probably some room for shifts but unless there's a drastic change in the overall pattern, then I can't see more than a 50 mile change from that 5 day track.

5 days tracks I think have a good chance of changing about 200 or so miles.

[Steve]

00z GFS... 90 hrs... Decent E shift from 18z...

15-20 miles at most imho.

Ridge still building in over top and 1mb lower in 00z so 945 where it was 946 before.

9 moving faster whereas Florence is a bit slower.

[PTrackerLA]

Comparing it to the wxgraphics link which is currently refreshing and the previous 18z run in a side by side window, this shift East will most probably keep Florence offshore at least in the next 6 days, but we'll see..

http://wx.graphics/models/gfs_florence.png

Edit: well now i'm not so sure with this WNW jog