ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

Recon is on the way

[FLpanhandle91]

Can anyone give any insight on how they think Florence will do overnight with the diurnal cycle?
Also, it looks to be having some trouble on the southwest side. Sheer?

[meriland29]

Is she suffering from some dry air problems? Is one side of her weakening a little?

[sbcc]

They interviewed a guy who was originally from Boston on CNN and said since he was in blizzards that produced 2-3 feet of snow, he could handle storm surge since snow was harder to deal with than water.

the stupid is strong with that one *face palm*

I just read this to my wife. She immediately said "three feet of snow is no problem. Can you imagine three feet of water in here (our home)? Everything would be ruined." She's right. This guy is going to become some first responder's problem at the very least.

Self edited for language.

[funster]

..And his poor parrot that was sitting on his shoulder during the interview.

[SouthFLTropics]

My old friend and sometimes chase partner, Jim Leonard, often said, "The hurricane is going to do something stupid just before landfall." This usually happened in the way of a stall for awhile, a jump in one direction or another, a marked change in intensity, etc. Always keep that in mind when you get attached to any model or forecast.

We've seen it happen on more than one occasion. Charley is the first that comes to my mind. Bound for Tampa and then bombed out to a Cat 4 and took the right hook into Punta Gorda. I have to wonder how much the frictional effects of land have to do with the final landfall location. Also the angle of attack along the coastline can make a big difference.

[Hammy]

Big dry slot opening up just outside the eyewall. Any chance Florence has leveled off and will weaken from here?

[FLpanhandle91]

Appears as though Florence is starting to evacuate some of the dry air. Fresh burst of convection in the eastern eye wall.

[supercane4867]

Big dry slot opening up just outside the eyewall. Any chance Florence has leveled off and will weaken from here?

Most recent microwave at 18z doesn't indicate any shear or EWRC affecting her. Still need to wait and see

[sbcc]

Big dry slot opening up just outside the eyewall. Any chance Florence has leveled off and will weaken from here?

Appears as though Florence is starting to evacuate some of the dry air. Fresh burst of convection in the eastern eye wall.

I love this place!

[Buck]

For the last 3 days, I feel like 50% of the posts in this thread have been about dry air that is causing/has caused Florence to weaken... and whether or not that has been the case, I think that's starting to be people's go-to post.

[FLpanhandle91]

Big dry slot opening up just outside the eyewall. Any chance Florence has leveled off and will weaken from here?

Appears as though Florence is starting to evacuate some of the dry air. Fresh burst of convection in the eastern eye wall.

I love this place!

Just basing my observation on the latest GOES-16 imagery. There was a dry slot, but it appears as though convection is firing again

[Bocadude85]

Can anyone think of any historical hurricanes that did what the 12z Euro and 18z GFS are showing? The only one that is somewhat similar that I can find is Betsy in 1965 but she was much farther south.

[p1nheadlarry]

Can anyone think of any historical hurricanes that did what the 12z Euro and 18z GFS are showing? The only one that is somewhat similar that I can find is Betsy in 1965 but she was much farther south.

I can give you one that threatened the same area: Diana 1984

But it looped and went north not south

[ncbird]

People on the EC of NC are painfully unaware that they haven't experienced a land falling hurricane in a very long time ..

If you talk to them they leave you with the impression that they are very experienced with hurricanes ....NC hasnt experienced one like this in 60 years .....I honestly cant remember the last direct hit NC (not counting the outer banks )had from the right side of a Hurricane ...much less a Major .....This could very well be an combination of Hazel and a Floyd ........or not ..but only a fool will take their chances....having a Hurricane party in TS force winds ...just isnt gojng to happen Thursday like they are used too

They interviewed a guy who was originally from Boston on CNN and said since he was in blizzards that produced 2-3 feet of snow, he could handle storm surge since snow was harder to deal with than water.

the stupid is strong with that one *face palm*

Most of us who have lived here in eastern NC for a good length of time are fully aware what of we have heading towards us. Because we have not experienced a cat 4 storm since Hazel does not mean we are not aware of the risks from of the system heading this way. The possible impact of surge, wind, and flooding is being covered constantly by our local news stations, in the news papers, and is the main talk in the communities. Our Mayors, officials and neighbors are reaching out and doing everything possible to help those here in need of assistance. There will always be some that act foolish during these storms no matter where they occur, but for the most part, those of us here in eastern NC are heading the warning, taking this very seriously, and doing the best we can.

[Hammy]

Big dry slot opening up just outside the eyewall. Any chance Florence has leveled off and will weaken from here?

Most recent microwave at 18z doesn't indicate any shear or EWRC affecting her. Still need to wait and see

https://i.imgur.com/OVpXn5n.jpg

Image is four hours old, and the northern eyewall doesn't look as solid as the rest, and the northern outer circulation was drier. It looks like that forming low in the NE Atlantic may have injected a bit of dry air that's now rotated around to the south.

[Buck]

Can anyone think of any historical hurricanes that did what the 12z Euro and 18z GFS are showing? The only one that is somewhat similar that I can find is Betsy in 1965 but she was much farther south.

I mean, totally different location and direction of drift, but didn't Harvey essentially do that last year? Steering currents collapsed on it after landfall.

[Bocadude85]

Can anyone think of any historical hurricanes that did what the 12z Euro and 18z GFS are showing? The only one that is somewhat similar that I can find is Betsy in 1965 but she was much farther south.

I can give you one that threatened the same area: Diana 1984

But it looped and went north not south

Diana may be the closest to what actually happens.

[Ken711]

Levi Cowan's latest report.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wml6hafjrUQ

[syfr]

Most of us who have lived here in eastern NC for a good length of time are fully aware what of we have heading towards us. Because we have not experienced a cat 4 storm since Hazel does not mean we are not aware of the risks from of the system heading this way. The possible impact of surge, wind, and flooding is being covered constantly by our local news stations, in the news papers, and is the main talk in the communities. Our Mayors, officials and neighbors are reaching out and doing everything possible to help those here in need of assistance. There will always be some that act fooling during these storms no matter where they occur, but for the most part, those of us here in eastern NC are heading the warning, taking this very seriously, and doing the best we can.

Totally agree with this. There's a very heightened sense of awareness in all the media and all the local merchants. It's all people are talking about.

I wasn't here for Hazel, but anyone who was here for Fran pays attention to any hurricane in the area.